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2026 AFL Week 1 Finals Predictions

2026 AFL Week 1 Finals Predictions

The first week of finals (non-Wildcard, play-in sort of finals) is here with Wharfie Time and Hokball kicking things off on Thursday night.

The Blues could be overs as they look to extend their unbelievable run under Josh Fraser against the Cats, while the Lions and Crows have been well-supported in betting on Saturday.

We’ve delivered our expert AFL predictions, tips and best Aussie Rules bets to place this weekend.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn Predictions 

Fremantle
vs
Hawthorn
Thursday 3rd September 2026 8:10 PM
Luke Jackson (Fre) Over 18.5 Disposals @ $1.85

Wharfie Time is back in a blockbuster Thursday night slot when minor premier Fremantle hosts Hawthorn at Optus Stadium.

A home prelim is on the cards for the Purple Haze, who enter the game as $1.44 favourites, despite having lost two of their past three games against Carlton and Melbourne.

Justin Longmuir will welcome back Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman, Murphy Reid and Sam Switkowski, while Oscar McDonald will cover Brennan Cox who misses with a calf strain.

As for the Hawks, Jack Ginnivan returns after missing Round 24 with a back issue as they attempt to reverse the result of Round 9 when they lost to the Dockers by 15 points.

The carrot of the club’s first AFL flag should carry the Dockers through to a prelim with victory this week, and it’ll start with Luke Jackson running rings around Lloyd Meek in the middle.

Geelong vs Carlton Predictions

Geelong
vs
Carlton
Friday 4th September 2026 7:40 PM
Carlton (+8.5) To Cover @ $1.90

It’s hard to believe it, but Carlton is in an elimination final.

After starting the season with just one win from their first nine games under Michael Voss, the Blues made the hard call on their senior coach and turned their season around, culminating in a 19-point Wildcard victory over Melbourne.

With an 11-2-1 record since Josh Fraser took the reins, the Blues are $2.25 to improve that record to 12 from 15.

The Cats, however, will have plenty to say about it as they come in as the $1.64 favourites and with the likely return of star midfielder Max Holmes.

Holmes got through a full training session after sustaining a fracture and syndesmosis damage in his right ankle in Round 19 but will be assessed later in the week.

Arguably the toughest game to predict this week, but certainly value for those who like the fact Carlton has won each of its last four Qualifying/Elimination Finals matches at the MCG.

Sydney vs Brisbane Predictions

Sydney
vs
Brisbane
Saturday 5th September 2026 3:15 PM
Kai Lohmann (BL) 3+ Goals @ $3.15

The second qualifying final of the weekend pits the back-to-back reigning champions against the Sydney Swans at the SCG on Saturday afternoon.

The Lions have been well-backed into $1.25 since markets opened as they look to go one step closer to a three-peat.

Chris Fagan has a full list to choose from with the return of Hugh McCluggage, with the likes of Bruce Reville, Dan Annable, Keidean Coleman and Linc McCarthy showcasing their depth on the sidelines.

The Swans, who are $4 outsiders and given next to no chance in this one, will do everything they can to ensure the return of Joel Amartey and Justin McInerney.

The favourite has won 24 of Sydney’s last 25 matches, and there’s no game this weekend with a clearer favourite than the Lions.

Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs Predictions

Adelaide
vs
Western Bulldogs
Saturday 5th September 2026 7:35 PM
Adelaide Crows To Win 1-39 @ $2.10

Another mouthwatering clash for many reasons, Adelaide will look to keep their season alive (and their coach’s career) when they host the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night.

The week off was anything but stress-free for Matthew Nicks and his chargers, with reports circulating that he will likely be sacked if the Crows are unable to win.

Internal politics aside, the Crows were sensational in their last-start 56-point win over GWS and could bolster their side with the inclusion of Lions premiership hero Callum Ah Chee and defender Jordan Butts.

The Dogs won their way through to another Elimination Final with a gritty 96-93 victory over the Pies on Friday night.

It wasn’t all good news for Bevo though, with Matt Kennedy entering concussion protocols and unable to take his spot in the midfield this week.

With fresh legs and the home ground advantage, the Crows should win this one comfortably.