Saturday Roughie Tips – October 10, 2026
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Last weekend plenty of roughies ruled supreme including God’s Window taking out the Epsom at $26 and, while we didn’t find them, there’s two more huge cards to unearth the value in this Saturday.
Melbourne hosts a cracking Caulfield Guineas Day card featuring a triple shot of Group 1 action and there are plenty of forgotten contenders across the card.
Further north, Rosehill Gardens’ Hill Stakes Day meeting has huge prize money on offer and there’s a few cheeky chances flying under the radar.
Ladbrokes’ Value Whisperer Lucy Henderson is back in action and has outlined her top Saturday racing roughies below.
What are the Best Value Racing Tips for October 10?
- Caulfield Race 3 – No. 6 Astral Flame
- Rosehill Race 4 – No. 6 Scarole
- Caulfield Race 5 – No. 8 Merrigold
- Caulfield Race 6 – No. 6 Grand Larceny
- Rosehill Race 6 – No. 2 The Machine Gun
- Caulfield Race 7 – No. 5 Treasurethe Moment
- Caulfield Race 8 – No. 8 Somethings Burnin’
- Rosehill Race 8 – No. 13 Magnatear
- Caulfield Race 9 – No. 11 Too Darn Discreet
Caulfield Race 3 – Flaming Value
No. 6 Astral Flame
ASTRAL FLAME (11) resumes from wide out in the Caulfield Vase but the Overshare mare remains a top three hope even from the gate.
The mile is the furthest she’s won over so resuming at 1600m is a query fitness and stamina wise, but her mile strike rate is strong (5:2-1-0) and she’s yet to finish out of the money first-up.
She was on fire in the autumn winning back-to-back races over the trip before her game second at 20/1 behind Group 1 winning mare Treasurethe Moment in the Group 2 Sunline here so the form lines around her are good.
Closed out her campaign on April 11 when fourth in the Listed Anniversary Vase but she was coming to the end of it and will be better off the spell.
Two good lead-up Cranbourne trials have her ready to go, Lachlan Neindorf has a lovely record aboard her and he’ll likely cross and lead from the barrier.
Can hang on for the exotics.
| 6. Astral Flame (11) 56kg1124x |
Rosehill Race 4 – Can Scrape In
No. 6 Scarole
SCAROLE (8) for Ciaron Maher comes into the Gloaming Stakes off some solid runs in Melbourne and can measure up here.
Won at The Heath track by over three lengths two back before a devastatingly close third under a half-length off Diameter and Somethings Burnin’ in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes over the Caulfield mile when just edged out of the quinella late.
Those two run in the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas in Melbourne and that bodes well for this son of Ole Kirk heading to an easier assignment over further in Sydney.
Looks like he’ll run the trip, the in-form Nash Rawiller comes aboard in a big tick, and the colt he’s on is rock-hard fit now ready to go on with it.
| 6. Scarole (7) 56.5kg82213 |
Caulfield Race 5 – Merry Good Chance
No. 8 Merrigold
MERRIGOLD (5) takes on her own kind second-up in the Northwood Plume Stakes and her strike-rate at this stage of a prep is gold (5:3-0-0).
Her Caulfield record is also pretty hard to ignore (6:2-2-1), and she’s been so versatile distance-wise including a couple of wins at this trip in easier company.
Thrown in the deep end fresh at Flemington on September 12 running a midfield sixth behind Pondalowie in the Group 2 Let’s Elope (1400m) in a run full of merit only 1.5 lengths off the winner.
Improves off that and back to her pet track.
The drop in distance is a slight query as she comes up against a couple of genuine sprint stars in a tough race but worth keeping safe behind the better fancied.
| 8. Merrigold (5) 56kg147×6 |
Caulfield Race 6 – Grand Value
No. 6 Grand Larceny
Jigsaw wins the Schillaci but further down the markets from the clear top elect, GRAND LARCENY (5), stands out at juicy odds to run in the trifecta.
The Team Hawkes-trained Zoustar gelding remains lightly raced for his age and has been very consistent all along including two wins first-up in the past.
Enjoyed a successful trip to Adelaide over the autumn winning the Group 3 Hawkes Stakes (1100m) before rounding out the Group 1 The Goodwood trifecta only a half-length off Desert Lightning when doing it tough from a wide draw.
Lead-up Flemington jump outs have been excellent, has form around some good sprinters and the airborne Ben Melham knows him well.
Right form last prep.
Respect.
| 6. Grand Larceny (5) 58.5kg5x13x |
Rosehill Race 6 – Firing Shots
No. 2 The Machine Gun
THE MACHINE GUN (11) puts an unbeaten record on the line first-up in the Roman Consul.
The promising Stay Inside colt won his opening two career starts and Peter Snowden has a good opinion of the up-and-comer.
This is his acid test and first Group race assignment, so it’s always hard to know how these lightly raced youngsters will measure up, but he trialled well at Rosehill last month.
Won a Listed race over 1400m on Soft going in Brisbane back in late June at big odds by a nostril flare having boxed on well after tracking the speed, so the six furlongs to get his spring going looks ideal.
Timmy Clark sticks with and, while the gate makes it tough, he’ll be there when it counts with a touch of luck in the run and looks overs at 26/1 at time of publish.
| 2. The Machine Gun (10) 56.5kg11x |
Caulfield Race 7 – Treasurethe Value
No. 5 Treasurethe Moment
TREASURETHE MOMENT (3) looks the standout roughie in the Might And Power field, and the early market support suggests plenty of punters agree.
Matt Laurie’s talented five-year-old mare boasts an outstanding record at Caulfield, winning four of her eight starts at the track, and she showed she’s back on song with a strong runner-up effort behind Pride Of Jenni in the Group 2 Feehan Stakes last start. Forget her disappointing Makybe Diva Stakes run at Flemington where nothing went right.
She quickly bounced back to produce a much-improved performance returning to her favourite course.
Expected to roll forward and set the pace, she’s deep in her prep now with a good fourth-up record and fitness on her side.
Gets every chance to give this a real shake-up and looks over the odds at double-figure quotes.
If she can get the soft lead she’ll give Sheza Alibi something to catch.
| 5. Treasurethe Moment (3) 57kg3×402 |
Caulfield Race 8 – Hot Price
No. 8 Somethings Burnin’
SOMETHINGS BURNIN’ (3) appeals to me as an overlooked roughie in the 2026 Caulfield Guineas, with the Chris Waller-trained colt flying under the radar at generous odds.
The nicely bred son of Too Darn Hot has been a model of consistency this preparation, finishing in the top three at all four starts, including a narrow second in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes over the Guineas distance at Caulfield last time out.
Ben Melham takes the reins aboard a runner who maps to settle off midfield and enjoy a cosy run before launching late.
While he needs to find another level to topple the more fancied contenders, his proven mile form, consistency, and strong lead-up performances suggest he’s capable of outperforming his price and sneaking into the finish at attractive odds.
| 8. Somethings Burnin’ (3) 57kgx1232 |
Rosehill Race 8 – Drawn to the Odds
No. 13 Magnatear
While I’m on the still-value favourite Headly Grange to win the Alan Brown, the price on MAGNATEAR (7) to run in the money behind him is too good to ignore.
Richard & Will Freedman’s consistent Written Tycoon seven-year-old rewarded me fresh on September 17 when I tipped him for a top three return in the Group 2 Theo Marks at 25/1 and boy did he deliver.
With 54kg, he took advantage of barrier one here at Rosehill over 1300m settling on pace and sticking on so well to cross a length back second to Skyhook.
He lost momentum at a crucial stage on the straight getting caught up briefly on the rails before getting his inside run and, while I don’t think that would have changed the quinella, the margin could have been even tighter.
A month between runs now after he was scratched from the Group 2 Shannon Stakes on September 26, but he’s always had the Alan Brown in sight ahead of his grand final in The Big Dance.
Kept ticking over with a Rosehill trial last week and did enough.
Yet to win here but also yet to run out of the money in four starts at the course, the 1400m second-up looks right within his wheelhouse and he comes back a half-kilo from his Theo Marks weight to 53.5kg which adds further appeal.
He’ll go forward with the light allocation and can hang on again as a forgotten chance.
| 13. Magnatear (6) 53.5kg331×2 |
Caulfield Race 9 – Too Darn Overs
No. 11 Too Darn Discreet
TOO DARN DISCREET (14) lines-up from out wide in a typically open edition of the Toorak Handicap and has been left alone by the punters despite two good lead-up runs from Dan O’Sullivan’s talented Too Darn Hot mare.
Declan Bates continues associations with this consistent five-year-old who enjoyed back-to-back 2000m wins in easier grade defeating some good types including Suntora and Land Legend last time in, and she’s been equally eye-catching this spring.
Fresh she was beaten by the barest of margins at 30/1 behind Pondalowie in Flemington’s Group 2 Let’s Elope in a huge return having made up lots of late ground in a terrific finish.
Good again at this track and trip on September 27 when 2.25 lengths third to Changing Colours, who also runs in the Group 1 on Saturday, in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes.
Fit now third-up she gets her chance with track conditions to suit.
Drops right back in weight and has won third-up previously.
Bates will let her ease back from the gate but, if he doesn’t get her too far off them, she’s a chance to flash home into the money again.
| 11. Too Darn Discreet (14) 53kg11×23 |
Saturday Racing Previews
- Caulfield Guineas Day
- Hill Stakes Day (Rosehill)
- Queensland Cup Day (Eagle Farm)
Happy punting!