After a boilover-heavy round last weekend, there’s a string of huge showdowns on the NRL Round 5 docket.  

Canberra and Cronulla aim to get back in the winner’s circle on Thursday, while Penrith are looking to avoid an unthinkable fourth straight defeat and Souths and Sydney Roosters come together in a big derby on Friday.  

Parramatta will be desperate to get off the mark against St George Illawarra, as will the Dolphins on the Gold Coast. Elsewhere, Brisbane host Wests Tigers, Manly and Melbourne resume their rivalry, and Canterbury and Newcastle finish things off with a mouth-watering Sunday match-up.  

See below for our complete 2025 NRL Round 5 preview and tips!

Canberra’s and Cronulla’s fringe contender credentials were rocked last week, heightening the importance of this clash in the capital to kick off Round 5.  

The toast of the NRL after dominant wins over the Warriors and Broncos, the Raiders have come back to the pack with heavy away losses to Manly (40-12) and previously winless North Queensland (30-20).  

Morgan Smithies is back on the Raiders’ bench from a concussion break, bumping Trey Mooney out.  

The Sharks cruised to big wins over the Cowboys and Rabbitohs in the wake of their honourable Vegas loss to the Panthers, but they had few answers for the Bulldogs in 20-6 loss at home last Saturday.  

The defeat thrust Nicho Hynes back under an unflattering spotlight, while strike centre Kayal Iro succumbed to injury. Mawene Hiroti replaces Iro in the centres, while Tom Hazelton returns in time to replace Siosifa Talakai (concussion) on the bench.  

Cronulla has won its last three against Canberra by 14-plus margins, including a 40-0 beatdown at GIO Stadium last season.  

The battle up front between Joe Tapine and Addin Fonua-Blake will be worth the price of admission alone, but the ability of Jamal Fogarty and Hynes (or Braydon Trindall) to direct traffic will arguably be more crucial.  

The Raiders shape as the more attractive option as a home underdog with the Sharks navigating some line-up disruption.   

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (+3.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS / HUDSON YOUNG ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ADDIN FONUA-BLAKE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.31 

Hit by injuries to marquee players and sinking to three straight losses for the first time since 2019, Penrith is under a bit of pressure to bounce back against a revitalised North Queensland at CommBank Stadium.   

The Panthers were gallant in their grand final rematch defeat in Melbourne after losing Nathan Cleary early with Dylan Edwards already on the sidelines. But the duo’s absence was palpable as they fell behind 28-0 at halftime against Souths, before rallying in a 28-18 loss.  

The Panthers’ defensive wall seems to be missing a few bricks, leaking an unheard of 25.5 point per game. 

Cleary is back in a huge boost for the premiers, while Casey McLean take’s To’o’s place on the wing. Matt Eisenhuth comes onto the bench with Scott Sorensen ruled out. 

The Cowboys regrouped from a diabolical opening fortnight with a more stoic display in losing to the Broncos at Suncorp, before getting off the mark for 2025 with a strong 30-20 win over the Raiders in steamy home conditions.  

Tom Dearden and Jake Clifford led the way, with Jaxon Purdue and Jeremiah Nani providing some timely highlights.  

The unchanged Cowboys have managed wins over depleted Panthers outfits in each of the last three seasons, including a 16-6 boilover at Penrith last season when both teams had a stack of Origin stars missing.  

Cleary’s presence swings this trajectory of this contest, but he can’t rectify all of the Panthers’ deficiencies on his own and To’o is a huge loss. The four-time champs need to go back to basic and grind this one out if they are to improve on a 6-5 record at their temporary home ground.  

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Cover the Line (+13.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS BY 1-12 / COWBOYS OVER 17.5 TOTAL POINTS / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / IZACK TAGO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $39.51 

South Sydney has generally overachieved to go 3-1 and now get their backline kingpin back, while Sydney Roosters have sunk to 1-3 after a dismal collapse at home last weekend. It promises to be a typically spicy inner-city derby at Accor Stadium.  

The Rabbitohs were outplayed in a 27-12 loss to Cronulla in Round 3 but responded with a first-half blitz against Penrith, leading 28-0 before being reeled in for a 28-18 final scoreline. Keaon Koloamatangi has started the year in elite form, while Cody Walker took control against the premiers. 

Jye Gray’s Dally M-leading form has seen him hold onto the No.1 jersey with Latrell Mithcell making his first appearance of 2025 at centre. Isaiah Tass shuffles to the wing with Alex Johnston ruled out. Lachlan Hubner is back from suspension with Liam Le Blanc making way from the 17.  

The buzz around the Roosters’ win over Penrith has died down via a 14-6 loss to the Warriors in Auckland in a dreadful 30-12 defeat to the Titans at Allianz Stadium when they led 12-6 with 20 minutes to go. 

The likes of James Tedesco could hardly be doing any more to inspire this team, but the Tricolours’ halves are struggling and some big-name forwards are well down on 2024 form. Connor Watson and Salesi Foketi return after missing Round 4. Nat Butcher starts at lock with Victor Radley sidelined.  

The Roosters have won the past four derbies – including a 48-6 rout in Round 3 last year at Allianz and a 36-28 victory in the last round at Accor Stadium. James Tedesco scored two tries in both matches, while Jye Gray grabbed a double in the latter.  

The bitter rivalry should spark some improvement on the Roosters’ underperforming engine-room, but the Rabbitohs’ comparative poise in the halves is likely to provide a decisive difference – and Latrell injects some very handy strike into what has been a workmanlike Souths three-quarter line.  

Tip: Back Rabbitohs/Rabbitohs Half-Time/Full-Time Double @ $2.10 

SGM: RABBITOHS WIN / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAMES TEDESCO AND LATRELL MITCHELL TO HAVE 2+ TRIES COMBINED @ $13.37 

Jason Ryles’ Parramatta Eels are 4-0 but showing signs of life ahead of a home assignment against a St George Illawarra outfit that opened its 2025 account by knocking over the premiership favourites. Meanwhile, Clint Gutherson’s return to CommBank Stadium adds a juicy element to this showdown.  

After heavy losses to the Storm and Tigers, the Eels have dug a lot deeper in defeats to the Bulldogs (16-8) and Sea Eagles (26-12) – but they still lack impetus and direction in the halves with Mitch Moses wallowing in the casualty ward.  

Ex-Warriors utility comes into the Parramatta team in the No.14, while Luca Moretti makes his first appearance of 2025 from the bench. Ryley Smith has been promoted to starting hooker.  

The Dragons went into the Round 3 bye off erratic losses to the Bulldogs and Rabbitohs, but they found their backbone to stun (an albeit slightly depleted) Storm 14-8 in ugly conditions at Jubilee Oval.  

Big-name recruits Clint Gutherson and Val Holmes are delivering big-time, while Jaydn Su’A had one of his best games against a vaunted Melbourne pack. Emre Guler has been banned for three games, which gives Toby Couchman a starting role and Blake Lawrie a bench recall.  

Parramatta has won 12 of its last 15 against St George Illawarra, including a historic 44-40 result at CommBank in the penultimate round last season as the Dragons set a new record for the most points in a losing effort.  

Walker should help the Eels unlock the attacking potential of Lomax, Addo-Carr and co, but it cannot be understated how hellbent Gutherson will be to compound his former club’s woes and inspire the Saints to another win.  

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (-4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: DRAGONS WIN / UNDER 48.5 TOTAL POINTS / CLINT GUTHERSON TO SCORE 2 MORE TRIES @ $27.12 

Gold Coast Titans’ tails are up after two big wins, while south-east Queensland rivals the Dolphins look no closer to breaking their duck under new coach Kristian Woolf.  

The Titans were caught on the hop by the Bulldogs after the Round 1 bye, but there’s been so much to like about their back-to-back wins over Newcastle (26-6) at home and Sydney Roosters (30-12) on the road.  

Jayden Campbell and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui were sensational as the Titans turned a 12-6 deficit with 20 minutes to go into an emphatic win over the Roosters. Rarely in recent year have the Titans turned in consecutive defensive displays of this ilk.  

The Dolphins, meanwhile, showed some improvement after their demoralising collapse against the Tigers in Round 3, but they still miles off the pace in a 20-12 loss to the Broncos that was nowhere near as close as the scoreline made it seem.  

Jaiman Joliffe returns from injury for the Titans, with Sean Mullany set to debut from the bench. Sam Verrills and Iszac Fa’asuamaleaui are out injured; Chris Randall will start at hooker.  

The Dolphins’ only change sees Max Plath move to lock for the suspended Tom Gilbert, with Connelly Lemuelu returning from injury in the second-row.  

After losing the clubs’ first three matches, the Titans outlasted the Dolphins 21-14 in Round 21 at Suncorp Stadium last season. On current form, a more resounding victory awaits Des Hasler’s charges on Saturday night.  

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (-5.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: TITANS OVER 28.5 TOTAL POINTS / TITANS UNDER 22.5 TOTAL POINTS / JAYDEN CAMPBELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JAKE AVERILLO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.92 

Brisbane Broncos are yet to hit top gear again since their Round 1 exhibition against Sydney Roosters, but they get a massive leg up to a 4-1 record this Saturday with Wests Tigers coming to town without their halfback linchpin on deck.  

Regrouping from a jarring loss in Canberra, the Broncos have made hard work of putting away then-winless Queensland rivals the Cowboys (26-16) and Dolphins (20-12) in the past fortnight.  

Kotoni Staggs’ return was a big plus in Round 4, while centre partner Gehamat Shibasaki has been a revelation, and veteran halves Ben Hunt and Adam Reynolds look like they’ve been paired up for years. Brendan Piakura will start this week for the suspended Jordan Riki, giving Jaiyden Hunt a bench call-up.  

The 2-2 Tigers lost few admirers in a heart-breaking 26-24 loss to the Warriors, but it was unmistakably a match they let slip. Terrell May was outstanding again, while Lachie Galvin and Jarome Luai both had big moments – but Luai earned himself a suspension for a high tackle. 

Latu Fainu moves to halfback for Luai, while Adam Doueihi has been named after his last-minute withdrawal on Sunday. Luke Laulilii replaces Solomona Faataape on the wing.  

After losing four straight to the lowly Tigers, the Broncos won one-off clashes in 2023 (46-12 at Suncorp) and 2024 (34-10 at Campbelltown) handsomely.  

The Broncos can’t take the visitors lightly – and Haas vs May will rock the Suncorp Stadium foundations – but expect the match-up between the Hunt-Reynolds combination and the Tigers’ 19-year-old duo to prove decisive.  

Tip: Back the Broncos to Win by 11-20 Points @ $3.50 

SGM: BRONCOS WIN / TIGERS +17.5 / KOTONI STAGGS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / BRENDAN PIAKURA ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.83 

Manly keep winning amid the drama and injuries, while archrivals Melbourne head to Sydney for the second straight week looking to atone for an upset loss in Round 4.  

Since having their colours lowered in Auckland, the Sea Eagles have coasted to home wins over Canberra and Parramatta. They have won their three games at 4 Pines Park by a combined 108 points to 36.  

Daly Cherry-Evans was superb in the 26-12 defeat of the Eels despite his contract furore, but the result came with the caveat of another injury layoff for Tom Trbojevic.  

Lehi Hopoate goes to fullback again, giving Clayton Faulalo another run on the wing. Nathan Brown starts at prop with Josh Aloiai out; Toaofoa Sipley returns to the bench.  

Melbourne followed up a rollercoaster grand final rematch win over Penrith – which saw them lose Jahrome Hughes and Nick Meaney to injury – with a 14-8 loss to St George Illawarra in the wet. Cam Munster and Eliesa Katoa were strong, but it was a team performance lacking the usual Storm poise. 

Jahrome Hughes (hand) is lurking in the reserves this week with Tyran Wishart again named in the No.7. Lazarus Vaalepu comes onto the bench at the expense of Marion Seve.  

Manly has won three of its last four against Melbourne, including a 26-20 result at home in Round 12 last year. Tom Trbojevic, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Cam Munster all missed the match.  

The late inclusion of Hughes could turn this one the Storm’s way – and the Sea Eagles folded the only time this season their opposition showed some genuine resistance (in this case, the Warriors). But this has the makings of being a dogfight that could go either way.  

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 10.5 Points @ $1.98 

Canterbury is sailing along unbeaten and alone at the top of the table ahead of this clash with a Newcastle team coming off the bye.  

The jury was out on the Bulldogs after accounting for mid- to low-rated teams St George Illawarra, Gold Coast and Parramatta in somewhat unconvincing style.  

But they produced one of the season’s most impressive displays to subdue Cronulla 20-6 at Shark Park with Matt Burton and Viliame Kikau still on the sidelines. Jacob Preston is developing into an elite second-rower, while Connor Tracey, Bronson Xerri and Bailey Hayward shone in the Shire.  

Kurtis Morrin gets the call-up this week with Sitili Tupouniua suspended, while Reed Mahoney escaped a ban.  

The Knights started the season 2-0 with wins over the Tigers and Dolphins with Kalyn Ponga in irrepressible form, but he was comprehensively blotted out in a 26-6 loss to the Titans in Round 3.  

Newcastle’s only change from Round 3 sees Kiwi Test prop Leo Thompson returning from a knee injury for Brodie Jones.  

Newcastle won five of six matches against Canterbury from 2021-23 – including two wins by a combined 108-6 in 2023 – but the Bulldogs powered to a pair of dominant victories in 2024, 36-12 at home in Round 7 and 32-2 in Newcastle six weeks later.  

Ponga and Bradman Best provide the Knights with ample strike, but they have generally struggled to put points on the board so far in 2025 – which is a concern coming up against a Bulldogs side conceding an NRL-low 14.5 points per game.  

Tip: Back Under 46.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: BULLDOGS WIN / KNIGHTS UNDER 18.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRONSON XERRI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / FLETCHER SHARPE ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.20 

2024

NRL Round 5 gets rolling with a heavyweight grudge match as Melbourne Storm look to extend their regular-season dominance over Brisbane Broncos. 

The Broncos defied their Storm bogey in emphatic fashion last season, snapping a 14-match losing streak in the rivalry via a 26-0 qualifying final shutout at Suncorp Stadium.

Melbourne won their Round 11 clash at AAMI Park 24-16, and a final-round clash 32-22 in Brisbane with both teams resting stars. 

Brisbane’s only three regular-season wins over Melbourne since 2009 were all at AAMI Park – in 2010, 2015 and 2016. 

The Storm come out of the bye with some big ins as Cam Munster lines up for his first game of the season, Jahrome Hughes returns from suspension and Christian Welch comes back from concussion. 

After memorable wins over the Panthers and Warriors in the first two rounds, a depleted side were down 14-12 in Newcastle in Round 3. 

The Broncos improved to 2-2 last week, bouncing back from a heavy defeat at Penrith with a blistering 38-12 win over the Cowboys – despite the absence of Reece Walsh, Payne Haas and Brendan Piakura. 

Adam Reynolds and Patrick Carrigan were instrumental, while Tristan Sailor filled in superbly at fullback.

The Broncos’ only change for this road trip sees giant youngster Ben Te Kura named to debut off the bench with a head knock ruling out Xavier Willison. 

The reassembling of the Storm’s full-strength spine for the first time since Round 18, 2022, is a tantalising prospect for Melbourne – Papenhuyzen has been sensational to start the year and Munster’s return only makes the Storm more dangerous. 

But they look to be giving far too many points away at the line against a team of the Broncos’ quality after the shorthanded statement they made last week. 

Tip: Back the Broncos to Cover the Line (+7.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: EITHER TEAM BY UNDER 10.5 POINTS / OVER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / DEINE MARINER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / HARRY GRANT ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.84 

A crucial juncture for both teams on Friday night with Canterbury Bulldogs showing genuine promise and Sydney Roosters coming off a jarring loss to an under-strength fellow heavyweight. 

The 1-3 Bulldogs followed up their 32-0 win over the Titans with a spirited 20-16 loss to South Sydney in traditional Good Friday clash. 

Icing attacking opportunities let them down but there were signs of improvement, while there’s no question the team with by far the worst defensive stats in the NRL in 2023 have dramatically shored things up without the ball. 

The Roosters are searching for consistency after following up both of their wins so far with disappointing defeats.

Trent Robinson’s side had a golden opportunity to end a long drought against Penrith but were outmuscled 22-16 in a result – diabolical Bunker calls aside – that flattered the Tricolours. 

Josh Addo-Carr (concussion) is sidelined again, bringing the more-than-handy Blake Wilson back onto the Bulldogs’ wing.

Jacob Preston’s broken jaw is a big blow and Kurtis Morrin has copped a ban, bringing Harrison Edwards and Kitione Kautoga onto the bench and Josh Curran into the starting side. 

Lindsay Collins is back on deck for the Roosters, pushing Terrell May to the bench and Egan Butcher out of the 17. 

The Roosters have won nine of their last 10 against the Bulldogs, though last season’s sole encounter was a 25-24 thriller in Gosford with a Luke Keary field goal proving the difference. 

The defensive resolve the Bulldogs showed last week will keep them in the fight this Friday, but can they create enough points to trouble the Roosters? 

On the strength of both sides’ Round 4 performances, the Bulldogs look decent value with a hefty start – but the under may be the sounder play with all four of the blue-and-whites’ matches producing totals of 36 points or less, and three of the Roosters’ games seeing totals of 38 or less. 

Tip: Back Under 37.5 Total Points @ $1.90 

SGM: BULLDOGS +10.5 / CONNOR TRACEY ANYTIME TRYSCORER / LUKE KEARY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $27.65 

Newcastle Knights are under considerable pressure as a home favourite against up-and-down St George Illawarra Dragons, winning just one of their opening four games. 

After edging a depleted Melbourne 14-12 for their first victory of 2024, there was a bit to like about the way the Knights hung in during a 20-12 road loss to the Warriors. 

Kalyn Ponga was a constant threat and the back-five shouldered a huge load, but they never really looked like getting on top with an outmatched pack. 

Adam O’Brien has made another halves change, bringing Jackson Hastings back in at Tyson Gamble’s expense. Leo Thompson and Dane Gagai are also back after missing the Auckland trip, while Jayden Brailey will start at hooker. 

The Dragons bounced back from consecutive heavy losses to the Dolphins and Cowboys with a shock 20-12 win over in-form Manly in Wollongong last week. 

Ben Hunt provided the direction and Tyrell Sloan the polish against the Sea Eagles as the Dragons grinded out the two points with just 47 percent possession and a 200-metre deficit in the yardage battle. 

Michael Molo comes onto the bench for Hame Sele in the Dragons’ only change. 

A Newcastle side that rested Ponga and others went down 32-12 at Jubilee Oval in Round 27 last year – the teams’ only clash in 2023. The Knights won five of their previous seven against the Dragons. 

The Knights have won seven of their last eight at McDonald Jones Stadium, while the Saints are a dismal 1-12 on the road since the start of 2023. 

But the underdog has also covered in 11 of the Dragons’ last 12 matches and the $1.44 Knights have not shown enough in 2024 to suggest they’re on the cusp of blowing an opponent off the park in the same manner that marked last year’s late charge. 

Tip: Back the Knights to Win by 1-12 Points @ $2.70 

SGM: DRAGONS +6.5 / OVER 37.5 TOTAL POINTS / BRADMAN BEST ANYTIME TRYSCORER / ZAC LOMAX ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $16.21 

A fascinating juncture for South Sydney and the Warriors to square off, with the Rabbitohs releasing the pressure valve somewhat with their first win of the season in Round 4 and the Warriors chasing three straight victories – as well as the end of another rivalry hoodoo. 

The Rabbitohs have dominated the Warriors over the past decade, winning 14 of the teams’ past 15 encounters – including the last eight straight.

The Warriors’ only win during that period was in Perth in the opening round of 2018 and they haven’t beaten Souths in Sydney since 2011. 

Meanwhile, 11 of Souths’ last 13 wins over the Warriors were by 16-plus margins, including a surprise 28-6 result against the burgeoning Kiwi outfit at Mt Smart in Round 18 last year despite the absence of Latrell Mitchell and Campbell Graham. 

The Rabbitohs improved significantly in a 20-16 eclipse of the Bulldogs last Friday, with Cameron Murray, two-try hero Jack Wighton and Keaon Koloamatangi leading the way. 

Defensively it was a confidence boost after getting trounced 48-6 by the Roosters – but overall they are still a long way from the top-tier sides’ level.

Souths have lost Alex Johnston to a hamstring injury, with Izaac Thompson coming onto the wing, Sean Keppie returns with a head knock Shaq Mitchell out. 

The Warriors are yet to put a complete performance together, but after four-point losses to Cronulla and Melbourne they have strangled Canberra (18-10) and Newcastle (20-12) out of the contests in the past two rounds. 

Mitch Barnett has taken some of the limelight away from his more illustrious teammates in the engine-room, while Shaun Johnson continues to prove the steadiest of influences in the No.7.

But converting pressure and field position into points is their big work-on. 

The Warriors welcome Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad back for his first appearance of 2024 with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – the star performer against the Knights – reverting to centre. 

Five-eighth Luke Metcalf has been ruled out till the latter stages of the season. Despite a great fill-in showing from Chanel Harris-Tavita, Te Maire Martin will wear the No.6 and CHT has been named in the reserves – though he could join the bench for Freddy Lussick in a late change again. 

Kurt Capewell is also out with concussion, bringing Marata Niukore into the second-row and Tom Ale onto the bench. 

This is a huge game for the Warriors, who for all their 2023 heroics fell short against the NRL’s highest-profile sides. They’ll be hellbent on a statement performance and will rely on their defensive steel and the competition’s second-best yardage game to get it. 

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win @ $1.73 

SGM: WARRIORS 1-12 / UNDER 41.5 TOTAL POINTS / DALLIN WATENE-ZELEZNIAK TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $27.47 

One of the surprise packets of the premiership’s opening two rounds, Manly has come back to the pack with back-to-back defeats…and a visit from the three-time premiers narrows the prospects of a turnaround in Round 5. 

Edged out 28-24 by Parramatta after giving up a 14-point lead in Round 3, Manly crashed 20-12 to teetering St George Illawarra as a 9.5-point favourite. 

The Panthers added Nathan Cleary and Scott Sorensen to their casualty ward yet chalked up a third consecutive victory, 22-16 over an in-form and full-strength Roosters side. 

Suffocating defence, a virtuoso display from Dylan Edwards and a solid halves showing from new combination Jarome Luai and Brad Schneider underpinned a performance that confirmed why a fourth straight title is more likely than not. 

Penrith get a big boost this week with James Fisher-Harris returning, which sees Round 4 debutant Mavrik Geyer drop out. 

Penrith is on an eight-match winning streak against Manly, taking out the last six by margins of at least 12 points. Dylan Edwards scoring four tries in a 44-12 thrashing at home in Round 6 last year, while it was a less jarring 24-12 result for the Sea Eagles at Brookvale in Round 24. 

Tom Trbojevic’s contribution is key but he has traditionally struggled to make an impact against the NRL’s tighter, more ruthless defences. If anything the Panthers lift their intensity across the board without Cleary and $1.60 head-to-head looks a gift to punters. 

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (-3.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: PANTHERS WIN / UNDER 39.5 TOTAL POINTS / LUKE GARNER ANYTIME TRYSCORER / TAYLAN MAY ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $49.41 

This Saturday night showdown sees both clubs at unexpected early-season high points: the Dolphins sit atop the NRL ladder, while Wests Tigers are eyeing off three consecutive wins for the first time since 2016. 

After a horrible start against the Cowboys, the Dolphins have responded with big wins over the Dragons (38-0) and Titans (30-14) either side of the Round 3 bye. It’s hardly been the most difficult draw to start the season, but you can only play who’s in front of you. 

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has enjoyed two blinders after the poorest performance of his career in Round 1, while young playmaker Isaiya Katoa was a standout as the Dolphins recovered from an early 10-0 deficit on the Gold Coast. 

Ray Stone starts at lock for the suspended Max Plath this week, with Kenny Bromwich rejoining the Dolphins’ bench. 

The Tigers backed up a shock 32-6 beatdown of Cronulla with gutsy 17-16 upset of Parramatta in the traditional Easter Monday clash. 

On the ropes at 14-6 down and Lachie Galvin in the bin midway through the second half, the Tigers rallied – with Galvin and veteran halves partner Aidan Sezer at the forefront. Api Koroisau has been sensational, as has Justin Olam, while the likes of Junior Tupou are improving with every game. 

Jayden Sullivan replaces the suspended Galvin in the halves with Latu Fainu eyeing an NRL debut from the bench, while Alex Twal returns at Asu Kepaoa’s expense. 

The teams’ only meeting in the Dolphins’ debut season was a barnburner, with Koroisau’s penalty goal from the sideline with three minutes left snatching a 24-23 victory in Round 25 at CommBank Stadium. 

The loss of Galvin could be a momentum killer for the Tigers, but if they turn up in Brisbane with the same defensive commitment that has characterised the past fortnight’s performances there’s a lot to like about their value as an underdog in this one. 

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (+4.5) @ $1.90 

SGM: TIGERS WIN / UNDER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / JACK BOSTOCK ANYTIME TRYSCORER / JUSTIN OLAM ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $41.52 

A Queensland derby with plenty riding on it for both sides. 

After some serious questions were asked about their attention to defence despite the NRL’s only 3-0 start, North Queensland Cowboys were humbled 38-12 by an under-strength Brisbane on Good Friday. 

Tom Dearden’s instantly-famous cover tackle and a couple of dazzling tries couldn’t gloss over an inadequate overall display. 

Gold Coast Titans, meanwhile, have rocketed to wooden spoon favouritism with three heavy losses to modest opposition – the Dragons, Bulldogs and Dolphins – with 90 points conceded and just 18 scored. 

The Titans have two new wingers with Jojo Fifita and Harley Smith-Shields replacing Phil Sami (ankle) and Alofiana Khan-Pereira (not named). Isaac Liu is out with concussion, giving Josiah Pahulu the chance to debut off the bench with Erin Clark starting at lock. 

The season ledger finished even in 2023: the Cowboys won 24-12 in Townsville in Round 4, while the Titans prevailed 22-13 on the Gold Coast in Round 22. Khan-Pereira scored three tries across the two games for the Titans. The Titans have won only one of their last 11 games in Townsville. 

If there’s a positive from the Cowboys’ campaign so far, it’s their ability to conjure tries out of nothing and pile on quick points against poor defences. The Titans are haemorrhaging points and Des Hasler will have to work some sort of miracle to get his charges up for this one. 

Tip: Back the Cowboys to Score Over 31.5 Points @ $1.85 

SGM: COWBOYS BY 21-30 POINTS / JEREMIAH NANAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KYLE FELDT TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $34.18 

A pair of 2-2 teams eager to get back in the black close out Round 4 in the capital. 

Canberra, after two impressive wins and an honourable loss on the road to the Warriors, took a step backwards at Cronulla last Sunday, blowing an 18-0 lead in a 36-22 loss. 

Parramatta bookended a hard-fought loss at Penrith with strong wins over Canterbury and Manly in the first three rounds. But with Mitch Moses succumbing to a medium-term injury, the Eels gave up an eight-point lead in a 17-16 loss to the Tigers on Monday. 

Raiders back-rower Zac Hosking (concussion) misses a week, with Simi Sasagi named for a club debut. Elliott Whitehead (calf) remains out. 

Bailey Simonsson returns at centre for Morgan Harper and Wiremu Greig has been called up to the Eels’ bench for his first top-grade game of 2024. Brendan Hands drops out of the 17 and Bryce Cartwright (rib) is still injured. 

The Raiders have won only two of their last seven against the Eels, but they came out on top in their only 2023 clash – a hard-fought 26-18 result in Round 11 at home. 

Of any game this weekend, this one shapes as a flip of the coin…and the market agrees. The home advantage may just be enough to lean the Raiders’ way. 

Tip: Back the Raiders to Win @ $1.82 

SGM: RAIDERS BY 1-12 / OVER 42.5 TOTAL POINTS / MAIKA SIVO ANYTIME TRYSCORER / MATTHEW TIMOKO ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $21.77 

2022

A defined leading pack is already starting to emerge in the NRL – and Penrith Panthers, Melbourne Storm, Parramatta Eels and Cronulla Sharks all head into Round 5 as resounding favourites as they aim to consolidate their top-four status.

Meanwhile, the weekend kicks off with three matches between 2-2 teams – Newcastle Knights v Manly Sea Eagles, New Zealand Warriors v North Queensland Cowboys and Brisbane Broncos v Sydney Roosters – before 1-3 pair South Sydney Rabbitohs and St George Illawarra Dragons square off to avoid being left behind with the early-season stragglers.

Newcastle and Manly both head into Round 5 with 0.500 records, but the Knights are suddenly staring down the barrel of three straight losses while the Sea Eagles are chasing three consecutive wins after a slow start.

Manly are reeling from an MCL injury to Tom Trbojevic suffered in his dominant display in last Saturday’s 25-6 win over Canberra. Gun rookie Tolutau Koula moves into the fullback hot-seat, while fellow tyro Christian Tuipulotu has been named at centre despite Brad Parker coming out of COVID protocols.

The unchanged Knights came out of their 38-20 loss to Penrith with 12 men in a positive mindset but were shut out 18-0 by Cronulla last Friday. Kalyn Ponga is coming under scrutiny following an ineffective performance amid injuries and contract speculation. The Knights’ in-form backline was outmuscled and outclassed.

The Knights have won their last three against the Sea Eagles, including a gritty 18-10 home victory in the teams’ sole 2021 clash.

‘Turbo’s’ absence is a blow for Manly, but the Sea Eagles have won four of their last five without the reigning Dally M Medal winner. There’s more than enough firepower in the Sea Eagles’ ranks and Daly Cherry-Evans has returned to his influential best against the Raiders.

It’s far from panic stations at Newcastle, however. Arguably the most impressive team of the opening two rounds, Adam O’Brien’s side needs to forget about last week and keep it simple to regain their confidence.

A fascinating match-up that should go down to the wire, with the Knights narrow favourites at home.

Tip: Back Either Team to Win by Less Than 6.5 Points @ $2.40

SGM: OVER 34.5 POINTS / NEWCASTLE WIN / DANE GAGAI ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $7.72

A big litmus test for a pair of 2-2 teams that are still favoured to finish closer to the bottom-four than the Top 8.

The Warriors were dealt the softest early-season draw in the comp. After bumbling their way to an ugly win over the Tigers in Round 3, they produced their most well-rounded performance so far in a 20-6 victory over the sliding Broncos – equalling the biggest win and least points conceded under Nathan Brown.

Shaun Johnson’s presence transforms the Warriors into something resembling a competent football side. Their pack bounced back with an authoritative display against the Brisbane pack – though Addin Fonua-Blake is in serious doubt this week – and a maligned three-quarter line contingent stood tall.

The Cowboys took a step backwards last week after consecutive thrashings of the Raiders and Broncos, going down 28-4 to the Roosters in a home clash blighted by three sin-binnings. Their forwards were steamrolled by the Tricolours’ pack and gave in-form halves Tom Dearden and Chad Townsend little to work with.

Aaron Pene and Bayley Sironen return to the Warriors’ 17 with suspended Round 4 standout Jazz Tevaga and the injured Ben Murdoch-Masila unavailable. The Cowboys have lost fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to injury, with dangerous ball-player Scott Drinkwater getting the No.1 call-up.

The teams’ last seven encounters were decided by 1-12 margins.

Last season the Warriors almost blew a 20-point halftime lead before prevailing 24-20 in Gosford in Round 8, while they overturned a 16-point halftime deficit in Townsville four weeks later only for a long-range Tubai-Fidow try and booming Valentine Holmes field goal in the dying minutes to steal a 29-28 victory for the Cowboys.

The Warriors are the slightest of favourites at Redcliffe and still have enough muscle in the middle without AFB. If spine trio Johnson, Reece Walsh and Chanel Harris-Tavita reproduce what we saw last week, it should be enough for the hosts.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Win @ $1.82

SGM: WARRIORS 1-12 / OVER 36.5 POINTS / JESSE ARTHARS ANYTIME TRYSCORER / KYLE FELDT ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $24.60

Brisbane’s stocks have plummeted since its two-win start to 2022. A woeful 38-12 derby loss to North Queensland flowed into an insipid 20-6 defeat to the Warriors. Adam Reynolds doesn’t look settled in a young and disjointed spine, while their backs were awful against unheralded Warriors opponents.

Compounding matters, Patrick Carrigan and Albert Kelly are now sidelined with injuries, Thomas Flegler is suspended again and the Payne Haas-Kelly biffo video has cast the club back under a harsh spotlight.

Sydney Roosters are yet to hit their straps, but they responded strongly to their loss to Souths with a 28-4 defeat of the Cowboys – albeit aided by refereeing whims. The main takeaways were a powerhouse engine-room display and blistering performances from Joey Manu and James Tedesco.

The Roosters are unchanged with Sam Verrills the only first-choice player in the casualty ward. Billy Walters slots into five-eighth for the Broncos, utility Cory Paix comes onto the bench along with Corey Jensen, and Kobe Hetherington gets the start at lock.

Despite their disparate levels of success in recent seasons, the high-profile clubs have split their last eight encounters.

The Kelly-inspired Broncos powered to a 34-16 upset at the SCG in Round 11 last year amid a Victor Radley meltdown, while a last-minute penalty goal snatched a 21-20 Roosters win at Suncorp in Round 22. The Roosters took out the teams’ two 2020 encounters by a combined 117-12.

The Broncos are longshots for the upset here – their steel in backs-to-the-wall situations in recent seasons has been non-existent. Count on the Roosters covering as they aim to stay in touch with the NRL’s front-runners.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (-12.5 Points) @ $2.00

SGM: ROOSTERS/ROOSTERS HALF-TIME/FULLTIME / ROOSTERS -20.5 / OVER 38.5 POINTS / DANIEL TUPOU 1ST OR 2ND TRY OF THE MATCH @ $15.34

Few teams have been as unreliable week to week over the first month of the season than Canberra, backing up nail-biting home wins over Cronulla and Gold Coast with heavy road losses to North Queensland and Manly.

Essentially, the Raiders have produced just two decent halves of football to date and are lucky to be 2-2. Jack Wighton is head and shoulders above his teammates at present, while the vaunted Green Machine pack was rumbled by the Sea Eagles with only one forward running for 100 metres.

The Storm keep Storming, emerging from consecutive golden point assignments with a 44-0 rout of Canterbury. It was the strongest line-up Melbourne has fielded in an injury-hit start to the year, while Jahrome Hughes and four-try hero Ryan Papenhuyzen were out of this world.

Both teams have named unchanged 17s.

After briefly becoming a bogey for the Storm, the Raiders have lost their last four against the perennial heavyweights by an average scoreline of 28-13. Only another lift from Ricky’s charges at home can prevent a similar result – but right now there is a massive gulf between these keen rivals.

Tip: Back the Storm to Win by 13+ @ $1.90

SGM: STORM 11-20 / UNDER 40.5 POINTS / XAVIER COATES TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $34.16

Souths were outclassed in their grand final rematch last Friday, but they are travelling better than their 1-3 record suggests – it’s been a brutal draw to start 2022 given their personnel changes.

Lachlan Ilias is looking better with each outing in the No.7 and the Rabbitohs should comfortably account for the NRL’s mid- to lower-level teams.

Which brings us to the Saints, who are rapidly eroding the misplaced late pre-season hype that swelled around them. The Dragons were blown off the park 48-14 by Parramatta in Round 4 – the most points conceded by any team this season.

Coach Anthony Griffin’s baffling call to drop Tyrell Sloan and Talatau Amone to put veterans Moses Mbye and Jack Bird in the spine – which he has stuck with this week – was astonishingly premature. Ben Hunt is playing well but the pack looks cumbersome and Griffin’s tinkering will ruin the club’s Top 8 chances.

Jaydn Su’A returns to boost the Dragons’ engine-room, while Mark Nicholls is out in a Bunnies blow with Tom Burgess coming into the starting side and Davvy Moale joining the bench along with Blake Taaffe. Josh Mansour comes in for the injured Jaxson Paulo on the Rabbitohs’ flank.

Souths have dominated this rivalry over the past decade, winning 16 of the teams’ last 19 games – including the last seven straight. They met twice in the last six rounds of 2021, with the Dragons subjected to a 50-14 thrashing at Suncorp Stadium before a Rabbitohs side resting seven top-liners won 20-16 on the Sunshine Coast.

St George Illawarra’s jarring loss to Parramatta should lead to an improved effort this week. But Cody Walker, Latrell Mitchell and Damien Cook will be licking their lips at the prospect of unpicking the Dragons’ defence in the same manner as Moses, Brown and co. did last Sunday.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-10.5) @ $1.90

SGM: RABBITOHS/RABBITOHS HALF-TIME/FULL-TIME / OVER 38.5 POINTS / LATRELL MITCHELL ANYTIME TRYSCORER / DRAGONS OVER 12.5 POINTS @ $5.98

It’s the first double-up fixture of 2022 as Round 1 combatants Gold Coast and Parramatta square off at Robina. The Eels won a rollercoaster encounter 32-28 at home four weeks ago, getting up on a couple of penalty goals after the underdog Titans had pegged back a couple of big deficits.

It was the Eels’ sixth straight win over the Titans; the previous five were by margins of 16-plus.

The blue-and-golds have been the better of the teams since. Following an after-the-bell loss to the Sharks, the Eels stunned the Storm in extra-time in a high-quality showdown and blitzed the Dragons 48-14.

The Parramatta spine – Dylan Brown and Mitch Moses especially – was scintillating in a Globetrotter-esque demolition of the Saints.

The Titans bookended a shocking collapse in Canberra with fortunate eclipses of the Warriors and Tigers, the latter with a last-minute try at the end of a horrendously low-quality match. The combined margin in the Titans’ four games this season is just 10 points.

Young buck Tino Fa’asuamaleaui is taking to the captaincy with relish but Gold Coast’s inexperienced spine is struggling to find its feet and recent pick-up Jamayne Isaako was underwhelming deputising for Jayden Campbell at fullback.

The Titans will be boosted by the return of Beau Fernor, Phillip Sami and Isaac Liu from COVID protocols, helping ease the loss of Brian Kelly. Sami slots in at centre. Shaun Lane is back for the Eels.

Given the teams’ respective progress (or lack thereof) since they last met and continuity and experience in key positions, the Eels should cruise to the W here. The Titans’ defence was a 2021 bugbear and has looked vulnerable this year, which is a worry against a team brimming with attacking firepower.

Tip: Back the Eels to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) and Over 38.5 Points @ $3.30

SGM: EELS 13+ / EELS OVER 22.5 POINTS / CLINT GUTHERSON ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $6.19

Make no mistake: Wests Tigers are an ordinary team and are battling big time. But their effort can’t be questioned and they were unlucky not to come out on top against the Warriors and Titans – admittedly, in two of worst games of the NRL era.

The presence of unavailable duo Adam Doueihi and Jackson Hastings could have easily flipped those results for a team that is averaging 9.5 points per game.

But none of those intangibles and hypotheticals help the Tigers ahead of a clash with Cronulla Sharks, who have emerged as a premiership dark horse with three consecutive wins. After pipping the Eels after the siren, they brushed aside the Dragons and Knights with unexpected ease.

Nicho Hynes is flying in a spine that has gelled superbly, their outside backs – with the versatile Siosifa Talakai unstoppable against the Knights – are among the NRL’s most potent and a well-rounded pack is getting over their opponents week after week.

Cronulla has won seven of their last eight against Wests Tigers, who have not claimed a victory at Shark Park since 2014. William Kennedy, Sione Katoa, Ronaldo Mulitalo and Luke Metcalf all bagged doubles in a 50-20 late-2021 blowout in Rockhampton.

Both sides are unchanged and it’s hard to envisage a form swing from either team significant enough to prevent a sizeable win for the super-impressive Sharks.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (-18 Points) @ $1.90

SGM: SHARKS OVER 28.5 POINTS / TIGERS UNDER 10.5 POINTS / SIONE KATOA TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES / JESSE RAMIEN ANYTIME TRYSCORER @ $20.20

The 44 points the Storm put on them wasn’t as bad as it looks at face value for the Bulldogs. There were multiple runaway tries against the run of play, while the Canterbury pack continues to plug away admirably.

But Trent Barrett’s side is averaging seven points a game and can’t figure out how to best utilise the talent of marquee recruits Matt Burton and Josh Addo-Carr.

Barrett’s backline selections have also confounded and he pulled a strange rein again this week by throwing halves outcast Kyle Flanagan to the wolves. Flanagan is their best No.7 option but he’s on a hiding to nothing returning to the line-up here against Penrith.

The unbeaten Panthers have been phenomenal, showing zero signs of a premiership hangover. Nathan Cleary returned to help lead a 26-12 defeat of Souths in last Friday’s grand final rematch.

But the biggest individual talking points so far for the champs have been the stunning performances of rookie three-quarters Taylan May and Izack Tago, and Isaah Yeo’s perfect 12-vote start in the Dally M Medal race.

Penrith has won its last three against Canterbury by a combined score of 100-4. The Panthers – the shortest-priced favourites of 2022 so far ahead of this match – would have watched the Storm’s rout of the Dogs with interest and will be fired up to carve out a similar result.

The Bulldogs will struggle to get the CommBank Stadium scoreboard attendant out of his seat on Sunday.

Tip: Back Panthers to Cover the Line (-19.5 Points) and Under 41.5 Points @ $5.00

SGM: PANTHERS -19.5 / BULLDOGS UNDER 10.5 POINTS / STEPHEN CRICHTON TO SCORE 2 OR MORE TRIES @ $17.64

2021

Three top eight blockbusters headline Round 5 as the Panthers and the Eels look to remain undefeated.

After taking care of Manly last week, Penrith returns home to take on the Raiders on Friday night in a game that could turn out to be a finals preview.

The Roosters and Sharks are looking to make it two in a row when they meet on Saturday at the SCG, followed by a Sunday twilight blockbuster between the Eels and Dragons from Bankwest.

This should be another telling weekend of footy, so be sure to check out who we’re backing in our Round 5 Preview here!

They might be at opposite ends on the ladder, but there should be plenty of feeling between the Rabbitohs and Broncos on Thursday night.

After stumbling against some of the lower teams last year, the Rabbitohs proved to everybody that they are locked in with a 38-0 shutout over the Bulldogs last Friday night.

The Broncos, meanwhile, gave the Storm a slight scare in the opening 10-minutes before suffering at the hands of Ryan Papenhuyzen in another 40-6 landslide.

Although he’s been removed from the Broncos for close to three years, this is still another statement game for Wayne Bennett going up against not only his former club, but also his former assistant Kevin Walters.

While these two sides traded punches last season, it was all one-way traffic when they last met with the Rabbitohs walking away comfortable 18-point victors.

Souths will have to go about their business minus Cody Walker, but after Brisbane’s defence was carved up last week by Ryan Papenhuyzen and George Jennings, it’s unlikely the Bunnies will be too worried.

Unlike most teams, the Broncos are one of the healthiest and fittest sides in the league right now, but this is still a tough task against a red-hot Rabbitohs side scoring for fun.

Considering the Bunnies have covered the line three of their last four games as the home favourite against Brisbane, this one should turn into another Thursday night blowout.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-20.5 Points) @ $2.00

Things are only about to get harder before they get any easier for Manly.

After suffering a 40-point loss last week to the Panthers, the Sea Eagles now travel to Gosford on Friday night to face a Warriors side looking to return to winning form.

Although injuries have largely been to blame for Manly’s winless start, there’s no denying Des Hasler’s side is lacking the mental focus and effort to string together two consistent halves of football right now.

The Warriors also have their injury concerns, but this does look a nice little bounce-back game for them after suffering at the hands of the Roosters last week.

Unfortunately, Addin Fonua-Blake has joined Peta Hiku on the sidelines, but Warrior fans can rest easy knowing their side has won three straight over Manly dating back to 2019.

The Sea Eagles may get some reprieve if Tom Trbojevic is deemed fit to play, but with obvious problems in the locker-room, it’s very difficult to see Manly pulling off an upset here.

Tip: Back the Warriors to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $2.00

First plays fifth on Friday night as the Panthers look to keep their unbeaten record intact against the visiting Raiders.

Ivan Cleary’s side spent the first month of the season in third gear with blowout wins over the Cowboys, Bulldogs and Sea Eagles, but like their Round 3 clash against the Storm a fortnight ago, this one shapes up to be a much tougher test.

Despite being hampered by injury, the Raiders still managed to dig deep last week in their 20-4 win over the Titans at Jubilee.

A tight defensive performance saw Canberra overcome its lack of possession in the second half to keep the Titans off the scoreboard, a performance the Green Machine will need to replicate this week against the best side in the league.

The last time these two sides met the Panthers won comfortably at home on the back of four first half tries, and there’s no doubt another slow start will cost the Raiders dearly this time around.

An encouraging defensive showing against the Titans is one thing, but after struggling to string together two consistent halves for most of the season, it’s tough to see the Raiders causing an upset.

Tip: Back the Panthers 1-12 @ $2.65

A spot inside the top eight is up for grabs on Saturday when the Titans and Knights square off on the Gold Coast.

Both sides have played to middling 2-2 records so far, but as the odds suggest, the Titans look a relatively safe bet to move one step closer to playing finals.

Newcastle’s injury woes have only gotten worse with Mitchell Pearce now set to miss up to three months with a pectoral injury.

The skipper joins Kalyn Ponga, Kurt Mann, Bradman Best, Edrick Lee and David Klemmer on the sidelines – a long list that leaves the Knights seriously short on playmakers.

For all the hype, it’s fair to say the Titans have fallen somewhat short of expectations so far, but there’s still room for optimism despite last week’s forgettable loss to the Raiders.

Justin Holbrook is set to welcome centre Brian Kelly back to the side, while Anthony Don and Jamal Fogarty are both a chance at playing.

With the Knights missing the bulk of their star power, the Titans look a good bet to extend their home winning streak over Newcastle to six.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (-10.5 Points) @ $1.90

Canterbury’s defence has been historically bad to start the season and things aren’t about to get any easier this week against the Storm.

The Dogs suffered their third consecutive shutout last week against the Bunnies – a result that has not surprisingly left Melbourne as -26 favourites at the line.

The Storm, meanwhile, cruised to a 34-point blowout over the Broncos thanks to a dazzling four try performance from star full back Ryan Papenhuyzen.

On one hand, the Dogs do have some decent talent through the middle to limit Melbourne’s opportunities, but considering they’ve allowed 24 points or more in all four of their games so far, another blowout looks imminent.

To make matters worse, the Storm have historically dominated the Bulldogs over the last few years.

Melbourne hasn’t lost to Canterbury since 2016, while last year’s 41-10 loss remains firmly at the back of Trent Barrett’s mind.

With a strong 3-1 record as the away favourite at the line against the Dogs, this one really isn’t worth overcomplicating.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-26 Points) @ $1.90

The Roosters and Sharks were two of the big winners to emerge from Round 4 as both sides now look to keep momentum rolling on Saturday.

Sydney’s stalwarts came through with the goods last week as the Morris brothers and James Tedesco played a big part in the 32-12 win over the Warriors.

The Sharks, meanwhile, picked up a blowout win of their own against the hapless Cowboys thanks to two tries respectively from Connor Tracey and William Kennedy.

The Chooks hold the wood over the Sharks with five straight wins on the board dating back to 2017, but this one could turn out much closer than the market suggests.

Cronulla has proven themselves a handful on several occasions this year with some strong second half performances, while the return of Ronaldo Mulitalo and Jesse Ramien should pose a few challenges to a Roosters defence minus Luke Keary.

So far these two sides have played to 3-1 records at the line, but with the Sharks welcoming back some key pieces, they look a good bet to keep this tight.

Tip: Back the Sharks to Cover the Line (+7.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Tigers have opened as the short-priced favourites to pick up their second win of the season against the lowly Cowboys.

After recording one of the upsets of the season a fortnight ago in Newcastle, Wests managed to put up a decent fight in the first half last week before the Eels kicked away in the final 10 minutes.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, have left plenty to be desired through the first month under new coach Todd Payten.

North Queensland has allowed the second-most points to opponents this year behind the Bulldogs – a worrying sign going up against a Tigers team that ranks top three in set completions.

To make matters worse, the Cowboys have lost four straight to the Tigers dating back to 2018 – two of which have come at Leichardt.

With some doubt surrounding the status of Justin O’Neill and Michael Morgan also set to msis another game, this looks to be another rough weekend for North Queensland fans.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Cover the Line (-9.5 Points) @ $1.90

Round 5 concludes with a bang on Sunday as the second-placed Eels take on the sixth-placed Dragons at Bankwest.

Much like last year, Parramatta has cruised to a perfect 4-0 record through the first month of the season, but they’ll likely need to produce their best this week against a dangerous Dragons side that hasn’t lost since Round 1.

Adding further spice to this game is the fact the Dragons won at this venue against the Eels by a narrow two-point margin last August.

On the injury front, Parramatta should receive a boost up front with Ryan Matterson returning from a concussion, while the Dragons will also welcome back Jack Bird from suspension.

As far as betting is concerned, this really is the toughest game of the week to pick.

Although the Eels won comfortably in the end against the Tigers, they did have their hands full early on.

At the same time, it’s difficult to read too much into St George’s wins over the lowly Cowboys and Sea Eagles and a half-strength Knights team.

With that in mind, the safest play here is probably on the total.

The last two games between these sides have gone Under, and it wouldn’t be surprising if we get a similar result this week with plenty on the line.

Tip: Under 43.5 Total Points @ $1.90

2020

The hapless Broncos and the hard done by Sea Eagles get us underway from Gosford on Thursday night, followed by a clash between two undefeated sides, Parramatta and Penrith, on Friday.

Saturday features another blockbuster between the Knights and the Storm that is shaping up to be a finals preview, while Sunday is one for the traditionalists with four old-time rivals in action.

We’ve previewed all eight games and offered our best bets in our 2020 NRL Round 5 Preview below!

Thursday night’s game in Gosford will be more than just a test of physical strength as the Broncos and the Sea Eagles both look to put their Round 4 horrors behind them.

The last fortnight for Brisbane has been an absolute nightmare after their Round 3 loss to the Eels concluded with a 59-0 massacre at the hands of the reigning premiers.

As for Manly, the less said about the forward pass controversy the better, but the fact remains the same: both of these sides are desperate to get back in the win column.

Anthony Seibold’s side has enjoyed the better part of this matchup recently with back-to-back wins over the last two seasons, but unfortunately, as the odds suggest, there’s a lot to loathe about the Broncos right now.

Uninspired on and off the field, Seibold has chosen to shuffle his squad this week by moving Corey Oates to the back row. Katoni Staggs returning is also a welcome side as the team ventures away from Suncorp for the first time since the season restarted.

Manly remain unchanged at time of publish and coach Des Hasler shouldn’t have any trouble rallying his troops in preparation for this clash.

After Tom Trbojevic’s surprisingly awful performance last week was followed by a controversial referee decision, it’s hard to see a fired up Manly side losing.

Tip: Back the Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.95

The Cowboys and Warriors were both comfortable winners in Round 3 over the Titans and Dragons respectively, but as we learned last week, cheap wins over two easy-beats often doesn’t mean much.

North Queensland were caught off guard last week against a Sharks outfit that simply wanted it more.

Defensive errors and consistent ball-handling issues cost the Cowboys in a back and forth game, while the Warriors on the other hand, produced a complete no-show against the Panthers in Campbelltown, much to the frustration of punters.

The Kiwis are technically the home side on Friday night and they do look a little over the odds against a Cowboys team still struggling with injuries.

Jason Taumalolo holds a slim chance at returning, while John Asiata now heads for an extended stint on the sideline with a knee injury, while Round 3 hero Ben Hampton and Jake Granville are also set to miss out.

The Warriors themselves are battling through with Isaiah Papali’i absent.

Considering the last five games between these two side have all gone Under the Total, the lack of star power could result in another low-scoring game.

Tip: Under 38.5 Total Points @ $1.90

The NRL has done a great job with these primetime blockbusters so far, and Friday’s potential Finals preview between the undefeated Eels and Panthers should be no exception.

Parramatta may have won controversially last week, but it’s worth remembering they did dominate the first half with three tries in the final 10-minutes.

The Eels also forced a disciplined side like Manly into a handful of uncharacteristic errors, while Mitchell Moses’ leadership clearly has this team in the conversation for the Grand Final.

Penrith can also stake their claim this week with another win against a top contender.

After defeating the Roosters way back in Round 1 and holding the Knights to a draw last week, the Panthers recorded a statement shutout victory over the Warriors that suggests they are the real deal.

Nathan Cleary is set to return to the halves for Penrith, meaning we could see another 16-10 thriller similar to last year’s Round 11 clash at Bankwest Stadium.

With that in mind, the Panthers do represent enormous value at their current quote.

Not only has Penrith won three of their last five against Parramatta, they’ve also played to a 2-0 record as the line underdog on the road against the Eels.

While the outright $2.45 is tempting, it’s worth taking the +5.5 insurance here.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (+5.5 Points) @ $1.95

Surely the Titans can’t do it again… can they?

Justin Holbrook’s side finally got a win on the board last week against the Tigers in what will go down as one of the clubs most memorable victories, but unfortunately, the odds, and the trends, are stacked against them this week.

Winless since the season restarted, the Rabbitohs are set to welcome back James Roberts and Cody Walker into the backline – welcome relief following last week’s thrashing at the hands of the Storm.

The Bunnies have also won three straight over the Gold Coast dating back to 2016, so while another spirited Titans performance wouldn’t come as a surprise, this game isn’t worth over-complicating.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs to Cover the Line (-11.5 Points) @ $1.90

The Knights are not only looking to potentially move into first-place on the ladder on Saturday night, they are also looking to erase four years worth of bad luck against the Storm.

Newcastle hasn’t defeated Melbourne since 2015, but following their 3-1 start to the season, Adam O’Brien’s side really looks a strong chance ahead of this finals-like preview.

Last week the Knights made short work of a Raiders team that seemed almost unbeatable a week prior against this same Storm outfit.

Melbourne, meanwhile, got things back on track last week with a win over the understrength Rabbitohs, but this will be a much tougher test against the NRL’s newest one-man wrecking ball, Bradman Best. 

The Storm will head to Campbelltown as the favourites in the market, but you could argue the bookies have got this one wrong.

History aside, this game should be a proving point for the undefeated Knights to cement themselves as a serious premiership contender, and with a healthy side, they should do just that.

Tip: Back the Knights to Win @ $2.25

The Raiders lost back-to-back games only once last year, so it’s no surprise to find the Green Machine at such a short price in the market here.

Canberra’s no-show performance last week against the Knights was easily one of the surprise storylines to emerge from Round 4, especially on the heels of a statement victory over the Storm a week earlier.

The Tigers also put up a flat performance themselves against the Titans that boiled down to a handful of unforgivable defensive errors.

As a result, the club dropped a bombshell earlier in the week by dropping Benji Marshall, while other names like Robert Jennings and Luke Garner also haven’t survived Michael Maguire’s axe.

Inconsistencies have been a part of the Tigers’ game seemingly forever, so it’s difficult to see them turning things around here against a class side like Canberra.

The Raiders have won two in a row over the Tigers and are also 4-1 as the away favourite at the line over the last 12 months, so stick with Ricky Stuart’s side to win big.

Tip: Back the Raiders to Cover the Line (-8.5 Points) @ $1.95

One of the NRL’s longest standing rivalries kicks off on Sunday, but judging by how the Roosters have returned following the two month break, it might be a little one sided.

Sydney’s demolition over the Broncos last week has them back in premiership favouritism, and while the Bulldogs did pull off a hard-fought win over the Dragons, this task is probably a little beyond them.

The Roosters are welcoming James Tedesco back into the side, a scary thought considering they put up 59-points last week without him.

As far as trends go, the Dogs have lost six straight to Sydney dating back to 2016, but if there is one constant to keep in mind, it’s that Canterbury has managed to keep it close on the scoreboard.

In their last six meeting the Dogs have lost by eight points or less on four occasions, so with a +17.5 line to play with, it might be worth taking Canterbury to at least keep things respectable.

Tip: Back the Bulldogs to Cover the Line (+17.5 Points) @ $1.90

Another famous rivalry will cap off Round 5 on Sunday with the winless Dragons in action against the rejuvenated Sharks.

Cronulla has won their last two encounters against St George and they certainly look the team to beat here based on last week’s efforts against the Cowboys.

Aside from a few silly errors in defence, the Sharks ran North Queensland ragged on the wing as Ronaldo Mulitalo found the line twice.

The Dragons, meanwhile, are perhaps one game away from implosion.

After laying a goose egg against the Warriors a fortnight ago and mustering only two-points last week in the loss to the Bulldogs, it’s safe to say Paul McGregor’s job is well and truly on the line.

From a trends perspective, the Dragons do look value at the line, though.

St George is a perfect 3-0 as the away underdog against the Sharks, so if they can force Cronulla into errors like the Cowboys did last week, they might keep this close.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

2019

If footy is your thing, boy does the NRL have your Saturday night sorted.

It’s the Sharks and the Roosters from Shark Park in a twilight thriller, followed by a Sunday matinee between two 3-1 teams, the Raiders and the Eels.

If you fancy backing a winner, be sure to check out our entire 2019 NRL Round 5 Preview below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8G63mQ924g

Have the wheels completely fallen off Anthony Seibold’s side? The Broncos were embarrassed at the hands of the Roosters losing 36-4 in Sydney last week, a loss that has called the heart of Brisbane’s leadership into question after a disastrous start to the season.

The Tigers also have a few problems to address after a second-straight loss, this time in agonizing golden point fashion to the Panthers. Wests were always the outsiders heading in, only to be left with nothing to show after allowing a last minute try to Dylan Edwards.

Both shock losses set up what should be a fascinating Thursday night tussle from Suncorp, one that has seen its fair share of close calls in recent years.

The Broncos won in thrilling overtime fashion when these sides met last March, claiming their second-straight victory over Michael Maguire’s side. Before you go backing Brisbane though, it’s worth questioning what frame of mind the Broncos are in after two disappointing losses.

As the away underdog the Tigers are 1-8, while the Broncos hold a much tidier 3-1 record as the home favourite against this week’s opponents. The last time the Tigers won at Suncorp was way back in 2016, but even so, if the Broncos start flat like they often do, they could easily find themselves trailing early.

Tip: Half-Time/Full-Time: Wests Tigers/Brisbane Broncos @ $7.00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoCsS7iDAQ8

Nothing went the way of the Titans last week in New Zealand. Gold Coast didn’t get out of the gates until after half time, and although the Titans made things interesting with two early second half tries, the damage had already been done as Garth Brennan’s side fell by 16-points.

The Panthers found themselves in a much more evenly matched battle at home against the Tigers. It took Penrith 78-minutes to crack the scoreboard, but that’s all it took for the Panthers to go on and win in golden point fashion to delight the home crowd.

Looking ahead to this week, we could be in for a real close one. The Panthers have won four straight over the Gold Coast, but fans would do well to remember last year’s epic 17-16 win in Round 22.

Even with home-field advantage this week the Titan still find themselves as the underdog for the fifth consecutive week. Gold Coast are 1-7 in this role over the last 12 months and 0-2 against the Panthers, however there is some value to be had on the line.

The Titans are 6-2 as the home underdog against the line, and although the usual errors and sloppy play will likely plague them once again, a fast start from the Titans could at least see them keep this game competitive.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (+3.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgfkXExmd5M

A Round 5 clash with the Storm is the last thing the Cowboys need right now. North Queensland were outclassed by the Raiders last week, losing by 18-points at home in what was another tough game for the Cowboys’ defence.

Melbourne remains perfect atop the NRL ladder, but things certainly didn’t come easy against Canterbury. The Dogs had a real chance to upset the Storm at home, but Rhyse Martin’s missed conversion attempt ultimately meant the difference between a tied game and a loss.

This week’s game looks cruisy for the Storm, but they can’t afford to get complacent with a red-hot Roosters side coming to town next week.

It goes without saying that the Storm will win this game easily if they control possession and stick their tackles – two things Craig Bellamy’s side have had no trouble with so far this season.

Melbourne are also an impressive 12-2 as the favourite against the Cowboys, which makes sense considering the Storm have won eight straight over North Queensland dating back to 2015.

Tip: Back the Storm to Cover the Line (-7.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDCrMjDUDZA

Tough to work out how the Bunnies lost to Manly last week. South Sydney controlled possession and played the cleaner brand of football, but unfortunately, none of that converted into points on the scoreboard.

Unlike the Rabbitohs, the Warriors reaped the rewards for their hard work against the Titans, securing a much-needed victory to remain on the fringe of the Top 8.

These two sides have combined for some real lively affairs in recent years, with the Total going well over 50 points in four of their last five. The Rabbitohs have won three of the last five, but even so, still look a little under the odds at this price after last week’s shortcomings.

It’s still only early, but New Zealand need to find the same form they had on the road last year. The Warriors were a force to be reckoned with in Sydney, but their 34-6 blowout loss to the Tigers in Campbelltown back in Round 2 was a far cry from the team we once knew.

As the away underdog the Warriors are 3-3 straight-up over the last 12 months and 1-7 in all games against South Sydney. Given just how many attacking weapons both sides possess though, the Overs is the play here.

Tip: Back Over 41.5 Total Points @ $1.88

https://youtu.be/tpI3eJ7pYY0

Manly nailed down what could perhaps be one of their most important wins of 2019 last week over the Rabbitohs, but it came at a cost. Tom Trbojevic’s hamstring injury has ruled the star fullback out for at least the next two months, but there’s nothing to say the Sea Eagles can’t win this week against the Knights.

To be fair, Newcastle fought gallantly against the Dragons at home last week, but once again came up short in the 13-12 defeat. The loss was the Knights’ third of the year, and they won’t hold particularly fond memories against Manly, either.

Despite having won two-straight against Des Hasler’s side, the Sea Eagles have typically taken Newcastle to the sword in recent years. Both meetings last year were decided by a try or less, with the Round 1 meeting needing overtime.

As the away underdog Manly are 6-11 straight-up over the last 12 months, but at the line they are 6-3 on the road. If the Sea Eagles can carry over last week’s momentum and lean on Daly Cherry-Evans to hold down the fort, this looks a great upset bet.

Tip: Back Manly to Cover the Line (+4.5 Points) @ $1.90

https://youtu.be/7OF3z8faosQ

The usually stingy Sharks defence was far from its old self last week against the Eels, surrendering an opening seventh-minute try to Marata Niukore before the floodgates opened in the second half.

Cronulla’s attack isn’t a strong point right now, and when faced with a side that can dominate around the opposition’s try-line, things get a little dicey.

Not that we needed convincing, but the Roosters proved they are one of those sides last week in their 36-4 demolition over the Broncos. Sydney have enjoyed an extra couple of days rest leading up to Sunday’s game, and it appears the bookies want no part of the Sharks at this price.

Cronulla are 4-4 as the home underdog against the Roosters, so it’s not surprising to learn the Sharks have lost three straight to Sydney.

The Roosters will need to be careful this weekend on attack, though. The Sharks are one of few teams capable of disrupting their organized sets, but if there’s two experienced players worth trusting to get the job done, it’s Cooper Cronk and James Tedeseco.

Tip: Back the Roosters 1-12 @ $2.80

https://youtu.be/8YY6xzNdwdo

You can hardly call last week’s 13-12 win over the Knights dominant, but the Dragons got the job done to remain just one step away from securing their spot back inside the Top 8.

The Bulldogs, on the other hand, put up a very impressive fight against the Storm in Melbourne last week, and even though Dean Pay’s side didn’t come away with the points, Canterbury has to take heart in the fact they put together two consistent halves.

These two sides met twice last year earning one win apiece. The most notable game was the Dogs’ 38-0 win in Round 24, a game the Dragons would have had circled all offseason.

With home-field advantage this week the Dragons find themselves at the short price, a situation they are 4-2 in against the Bulldogs. St. George also had to feel encouraged by the performance from Ben Hunt, and if the halfback can put together another huge day on attack, the Dragons should have no trouble disposing of a competitive Dogs side.

Tip: Back the Dragons to Cover the Line (-6.5 Points) @ $2.00

https://youtu.be/DaAIm2EnXhY

It’s only fitting that two sides fresh from convincing Round 4 victories meet in the final game on Sunday.

The Eels were always great value against the Sharks last week, and they didn’t disappoint in the 24-12 win. Likewise, the Raiders also saluted at a handy price against the Cowboys, earning their third victory on the year to now sit third on the ladder.

The Raiders will find confidence heading into this week’s game knowing they’ve won five straight over the Eels dating back to 2016. This is a different Parramatta side compared to last year though, and Canberra only need to peak down the ladder to find out why this weekend’s game is such a big deal.

With both sides sitting 3-1, the only real advantage the Raiders have is home field. It’s been over a decade since Parramatta have won in Canberra, and if the Raiders’ defence can lockdown and limit the points like they’ve done all season long, they should have no trouble earning their fourth win on the year.

Tip: Back the Raiders 1-12 @ $2.90

2018

What a start it has been to the NRL season!

There have been a string of upsets in the first month of the season and it is a big surprise that the St George Illawarra Dragons and the New Zealand Warriors are the only two unbeaten teams left in the competition.

Our NRL Early Payout special has also proven to be a hit for punters as we have paid out on both teams in at least one game in every round of the season to date and it continues this weekend – if your selection scores the first 2 tries, we will pay you out as a winner early even if they go on to lose the game.

We have analysed every game set to take place in the NRL this weekend and our complete 2018 NRL Round 5 tips can be found below.

It has been a shocking start to the NRL season for the Canberra Raiders, but they will still go into this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as narrow favourites.

The Raiders slumped to 0-4 with another poor performance against the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend and this has been their worst start to a season since they entered the competition in 1982.

Canberra have won only four of their past ten games as home favourites for a clear loss and they are a woeful 2-8 against the line in this scenario.

The Canterbury Bulldogs flew out of the gates against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, but they ran out of legs in the final 10 minutes and their inability to close out games has become an issue.

Winning away from home has been an issue for the Bulldogs over the past 12 months an they have won only two of their past ten games as away underdogs, while they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

It is impossible to trust either of these teams from a betting standpoint and this is a clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

This is arguably the highlight of the round and a big test for both these sides at this stage of the season.

The Sydney Roosters were flogged by the New Zealand Warriors last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with the Cronulla Sharks as favourites.

The Roosters have suffered back-to-back defeats only twice over the past 12 months, but their record on the road is not particularly strong and they have won only four of their six games as away favourites.

Cronulla have shown plenty of defensive toughness to record back-to-back wins over the Parramatta Eels and the Melbourne Storm and their recent record against the Roosters is outstanding – they have won six of the past seven games played between the two sides.

The Sharks have won one of their past two games at Southern Cross Group Stadium as underdogs and they are 2-0 against the line in this scenario.

The Under in the Total Points betting has saluted in the past seven games played by the Sharks and has also been a profitable betting play in Roosters matches over the past 12 months.

This should be another fairly dour, low-scoring affair and the Under is an excellent bet.

Back Under 36.5 Points

The St George Illawarra Dragons taken an unbeaten record into this clash with the South Sydney Rabbitohs and it is no surprise that they are clear favourites.

St George Illawarra have been dominant over the past fortnight and a win over the Rabbitohs will make this their best start to a season since 1993.

The Dragons have now won seven of their past nine games as home favourites, but they are still only 4-5 against the line in this scenario.

South Sydney came from behind to beat the Canterbury Bulldogs on Good Friday and there has been plenty to like about the way that the Rabbitohs have played in recent weeks.

The Rabbitohs have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 5-2 against the line and they have won six of their past seven games against the Dragons.

This is a game that should be closer than the current market suggests and the Rabbitohs are a great bet to beat the line with a start of 8.5 points.

Back South Sydney To Cover The Line (+8.5 Points)

This will be the second meeting between these two sides this season and the first leg of a double-header at Mt Smart Stadium.

The Wests Tigers stunned the Melbourne Storm in the second round of the NRL season and they take a 3-1 record into this clash following their big win over the Parramatta Eels on Easter Monday.

Wests have now won seven of their past 21 games as underdogs for a clear profit and they are an impressive 13-1-7 against the line in this scenario.

The Storm produced an unusually flat effort to go down to the Cronulla Sharks last Friday and they definitely aren’t as dominant a side as they were 12 months.

In saying that, they have still not suffered back-to-back defeats since 2015 and it would take a brave man to bet against them.

Melbourne have won 19 of their past 23 games as favourites and they are a profitable betting play against the line when giving away a start.

A strong defence has been the hallmark of the Tiger’s revival this season and this is another clash in which the Under in Total Points betting does appeal.

The Under has saluted in six of the past eight games played between these two sides and there is every chance that this will be another low-scoring affair.

Back Under 38.5 Points

What a start to the season it has been for the New Zealand Warriors!

They are 4-0 – their best start to the season in their history – and they were able to record a dominant win over the Sydney Roosters without Shaun Johnson.

The Warriors are showing a maturity that has been missing from their side for a very long time and they have not won five games in a row since 2013.

New Zealand have won only five of their past ten games at Mt Smart Stadium for a loss, but they are 6-4 against the line in this scenario.

It has been a shocking start to the NRL season for the much-hyped North Queensland Cowboys and they were nothing short of disgraceful against the Penrith Panthers.

A number of their key players simply aren’t performing at the level they are capable of and coach Paul Green hasn’t had any answers.

The Cowboys will take confidence from the fact that they have won their past four games against the Warriors and winning away from home – even in New Zealand – has not been an issue.

Backing the Cowboys on the road over the past 12 months has been a highly profitable play and if they can return to their best they do have a quality edge over the Warriors.

It is tough to back the Cowboys off their performance last weekend, but their record against the Warriors can’t be ignored and they are capable of bouncing back.

Back North Queensland To Win @ $1.91

This is another game where the market is unable to split the two sides.

The Brisbane Broncos take a 2-2 record into this clash, but there are still plenty of questions being asked about Wayne Bennett’s men following their disastrous loss against the Gold Coast Titans last weekend.

Brisbane were simply out-enthused against the Titans and another loss to the Knights would really put the pressure on this Broncos outfit.

The Broncos have won their past five games against the Knights and they are 6-2 on the back of a loss over the past 12 months.

The Newcastle Knights were no match for either the Sydney Roosters or the St George Illawarra Dragons over the past fortnight, but there is still no doubt that they are an improved side in 2018.

Whether they can turn around their poor record against the Broncos is a genuine question mark and I am surprised that the Knights are in the battle for favourtism for this clash.

I expect a response from the Broncos – Wayne Bennett is too good a coach for them not to – and they can maintain their dominance over the Knights.

Back Brisbane To Win @ $1.91

The Gold Coast Titans have taken this game to Gladstone as they continue their tour of Queensland while the Commonwealth Games take place on the Gold Coast.

The Manly Sea Eagles returned to winning form with a strong performance against the Canberra Raiders and they have won four of their past five games against the Titans.

Manly have now won nine of their past 13 games as favourites for a profit, but they are only 5-8 against the line in this scenario.

The Titans produced their best performance of the season to date to beat the Brisbane Broncos and they played some excellent rugby league in the process.

Whether they can replicate that two weeks in a row is a genuine query and they are always a tough team to trust from a betting perspective.

This is a game that the market looks to have just about right and I will be staying out.

No Bet

This is the second game of the season between these two sides following the opening round comeback win of the Penrith Panthers.

Penrith have improved their record to 3-1 since that victory and they were particularly impressive against the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend.

The Panthers have won ten of their past 16 games as favourites  and they are 8-8 against the line in this scenario, while they have won three of their past four games against the Eels.

The Parramatta Eels have made a shocking start to the season and they are still chasing their first win after going down to the Wests Tigers last weekend.

Coach Brad Arthur has been disgusted with the performances of his side – especially their lack of discipline – and he is likely to make wholesales changes ahead of this clash.

Parramatta have won five of their past 12 games as underdogs for a profit and they are 6-6 against the line in this scenario.

I still think that Parramatta are a better side than their form this season suggests and I am willing to give them one more opportunity to return to winning form.

Back Parramatta To Win @ $2.20

2017

It has been an exciting start to the 2017 NRL season and we are back to bring you our NRL round 5 tips for this weekend.

The Sydney Roosters and Melbourne Storm are the only unbeaten teams left in the competition and they both face tough assignments this week.

Sydney host the in-form Manly Sea Eagles on Friday night before the Storm and the Penrith Panthers do battle in a Saturday night blockbuster!

There is betting interesting in every single NRL game this weekend and you can find our thoughts for every single game below.

The Canterbury Bulldogs are a club in crisis and it would not surprise if Des Hasler has been replaced as head coach before this clash on Thursday.

Canterbury could hardly have been worse against Manly last weekend and they will go into this clash with the Brisbane Broncos as clear outsiders.

The Bulldogs have won only one of their past five games as home underdogs for a clear loss and they are 2-3 against the line in this scenario.

It has been a tough start to the season for the Brisbane Broncos and they secured a vital win thanks to a late field goal from Jordan Kahu against the Canberra Raiders.

Brisbane have not been particularly convincing away from home over the past 12 months and they have won only five of their past eight games as away favourites for a clear loss, while they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right, but there is one price that does stand out.

The Brisbane Broncos have scored first in all four of their games this season and 18 of their 24 regular season games last season – mainly due to the fact that they are keen to take the two points when it is on offer.

There is still $1.65 available for the Broncos to score the first points in this clash and that really does look like excellent value.

Back Brisbane To Score First @ $1.65

The Sydney Roosters and Manly Sea Eagles are two of the form teams of the competition and this is set to be one of the games of the weekend.

The Roosters have made an almost flawless start to the NRL season and they go into this clash as deserving favourites.

Sydney never looked in trouble against the South Sydney Rabbitohs last weekend and it really would not surprise if they were able to control this game from the outset.

They have now won their past four games as home favourites and they are 3-1 against the line in this scenario.

A number of experts were quick to write Manly off following their poor start to the season – myself included – and they have responded with two outstanding performances against the North Queensland Cowboys and the Canterbury Bulldogs.

Manly have won only two of their past eight games as away underdogs for a clear loss, but they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario.

It would not surprise if Manly are in this match for a long way, but I expect the class of the Roosters to prevail and there is an edge at the $1.80 for the Roosters/Roosters half-time/full-time double.

Back Roosters/Roosters @ $1.80 In Half-Time/Full-Time Betting

The North Queensland Cowboys returned to winning form against the Gold Coast Titans last weekend and they will go into this clash with South Sydney as dominant favourites.

North Queensland were far from flawless against the Titans, but they did enough to get the job done and they will be buoyed by the return of Jason Taumalolo.

The Cowboys suffered a rare loss to Manly at 1300Smiles Stadium, but they have still won 11 of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 7-1-4 against the line in this situation.

South Sydney were fairly flat against the Sydney Roosters last weekend and it is fair to say that they haven’t really impressed to start the season.

The Rabbitohs have been a tough team to trust from a betting perspective, but one metric in which they have thrived is as away underdogs and they have won four of their past eight games in this scenario, while they are 6-2 against the line.

In saying that, the Cowboys really have had the edge over South Sydney in recent years and they have won seven of the past eight games played between the two sides.

North Queensland have won seven of their past 13 games at 1300Smiles Stadium by over 12 points and they should be far too good for South Sydney this weekend.

Back North Queensland To Win 13+ @ $2

Cronulla are the shortest-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend and have an excellent chance to record back-to-back wins for the first time this season.

The Sharks were far from impressive against Parramatta last weekend, but they still did enough to get the job done and the likes of James Segeryaro should improve having spent a week training with the side.

Cronulla have won seven of their past nine games as favourites at Southern Cross Group Stadium for a clear profit, but they are only 3-6 against the line as home favourites.

The Newcastle Knights made a promising start to the season, but they took a big step backwards last Friday night when they suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the Penrith Panthers.

Winning away from home has proven very difficult for the Knights and they haven’t won away from home in the past 12 months, while they are 4-7 against the line in this scenario.

This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.

No Bet

This is a crucial game for both the Canberra Raiders and the Parramatta Eels.

Canberra were a touch disappointing in their narrow defeat at the hands of the Brisbane Broncos and they have started the season with just one win from their four games.

The Raiders have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites for a clear profit and they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

Organisation in offence continues to be a big problem for the Parramatta Eels and they really were fairly putrid against the Cronulla Sharks last weekend.

Parramatta have proven to be a tough team to trust as underdogs over the past 12 months and they have won just one of their past seven games as away underdogs, while they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

This really is a game that the Raiders should be able to win comfortably and I am backing them to cover the line.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (-8.5 Points)

This is easily the game of the weekend between two sides that are genuine premiership contenders.

The Melbourne Storm came from behind against the Wests Tigers to maintain their unbeaten start to the season and they will go into this clash as favourites.

Melbourne have won 10 of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are 5-8 against the line in this scenario.

Penrith bounced back from their narrow loss at the hands of the Sydney Roosters to put a score on the Newcastle Knights and they are sure to take a fair amount of confidence from that clash.

The Panthers have won three of their past seven games as away underdogs and they have covered the line in five of those clashes.

Penrith have not beaten the Storm since 2013, but there is very little between these two teams and the Panthers are a good bet to beat the line with a start of 4.5 points.

Back Penrith To Beat The Line (+4.5 Points)

The New Zealand Warriors have made a very disappointing start to the 2017 NRL season, but they will still go into this clash with the Gold Coast Titans as clear favourites.

New Zealand were expected to be buoyed by the NRL return of Kieran Foran last weekend, but he suffered a hamstring injury just minutes before kick-off against the St George Illawarra Dragons and he could miss this clash.

The Warriors have now won just one of their past eight games and their record as home favourites is extremely poor – they have won just four of their past nine games in this scenario and have failed to cover the line in any of these games.

Gold Coast went down to the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend, but there were still plenty of positives to take out of the performance and a repeat of that effort would likely be enough to beat the Warriors.

The Titans have won only two of their past seven games as away underdogs, but they are 5-2 against the line in this scenario.

Taking on the New Zealand Warriors continues to be a profitable betting play and the Titans to beat the line with a start of 5.5 points is one of the best betting plays of the weekend.

Back Gold Coast To Beat The Line (+6.5 Points)

The St George Illawarra Dragons have been the big surprise packages of the early stages of the NRL season and they will start this clash with the Wests Tigers as clear favourites.

St George Illawarra have scored back-to-back wins over both the Cronulla Sharks and the New Zealand Warriors and their is no reason that they can’t make it three wins on the trot.

The Dragons have won five of their past six games as favourites for a clear profit and they are a side that continue to defy market expectations.

Wests played well in their first game since sacking Jason Taylor, but defensive lapses in the second half let them down badly and cost them victory against the Melbourne Storm.

The Tigers don’t have the best record at ANZ Stadium and they have now scored just over 20 points in their past three games.

St George can grind out a win over the Wests Tigers and they are good value to do just that.

Back St George To Win @ $1.78

2016

It is a big week of local derbies in round 5 of the 2016 NRL season.

The Gold Coast Titans have struggled against the Brisbane Broncos in recent years, but they have the chance to record an upset win over their ‘big brother’ when they host them at Cbus Super Stadium on Friday night.

The Wests Tigers host the Cronulla Sharks in what could be a fiery affair on Saturday night before the Western Derby between the Parramatta Eels and the Penrith Panthers headlines Sunday’s fixtures.

Neither Manly or South Sydney bring particularly strong form lines into this Thursday Night clash.

Manly managed to get the job done against the Sydney Roosters, but they were far from convincing in doing so, while South Sydney were embarrassed against the Canterbury Bulldogs on Easter Thursday.

South Sydney are set to start this game as clear favourites – despite the fact they will still be without the likes of Sam Burgess and Adam Reynolds – and they are a very poor 3-5 as away favourites in the past 12 months and have beaten the line just once in seven games in this scenario.

In contrast, Manly are undefeated as home underdogs in the past 12 months and have been a winning betting plan as underdogs in all scenarios.

The Rabbitohs look like a rabble without Reynolds and Burgess leading the charge, while Manly will only continue to get better under Trent Barrett.

Recommended Bet: Back Manly Sea Eagles To Win @ $2.55

The Gold Coast Titans have been the surprise packets of the 2016 NRL season to date and they will go into this clash with the Brisbane Broncos full of confidence following their fighting win over the Canberra Raiders.

The Brisbane Broncos bounced back from their shock defeat at the hands of the Penrith Panthers to beat the North Queensland Cowboys in controversial fashion last weekend and they are dominant favourite to record back-to-back wins over their Queensland rivals.

The Wayne Bennett-coached side have been a narrow winning betting proposition as home favourites, but they are only 3-4 against the line as away favourites.

Over the past 12 months they Titans are only 8-10 against the line as underdogs and that record improves slightly in front of their home fans.

The Broncos should prove too strong for their rivals here, but there is no value at their current odds and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

The Melbourne Storm suffered their first loss of the season when they went down to the Cronulla Sharks on Easter Monday, but they are dominant favourites to return to winning form against the Newcastle Knights this weekend.

The Knights are still yet to record their first win of the season and they were badly beaten against a previously winless New Zealand Warriors last weekend.

Their is no luxury in the current price of the Storm and they will win comfortably, but whether they can cover the line of 18.5 points is the real question.

The Storm are 10-5 against the line as favourites in the past 12 months and 6-4 as home favourites, while the Knights are a dismal 3-8 as away underdogs.

Add in the fact that they have covered the line each time it has been over 16.5 points in the past three seasons and all the signs point to a big Melbourne win this weekend.

Recommended Bet: Back The Melbourne Storm To Beat The Line (-16.5 Points)

The shine has come off the Wests Tigers somewhat in the past three weeks, while the Cronulla Sharks recorded their biggest win of the season to date against the Melbourne Storm.

The Tigers were lauded for their attacking style of football in the first three weeks of the season, but the return of Robbie Farah has stifled that somewhat and Jason Taylor insists on playing a bench packed full of hookers.

Cronulla are clear favourites here and they are 7-4 in this position in the past 12 months and that record is the same against the line.

The Tigers are a losing proposition in just about every metric, but their record at both Campbelltown Stadium and Leichhardt Oval is very good and I don’t like to oppose them at these venues.

The prices on offer for both these teams look just about right and I am happy to stay out of this game from a betting perspective.

The North Queensland Cowboys considered themselves robbed by The Bunker last weekend against the Brisbane Broncos and that might not be a good thing for the St George Illawarra Dragons this weekend.

Paul McGregor has not changed his game plan with the Dragons in 2016 and they continue to struggle to score points, but you can’t knock their toughness and they have grinded out gutsy wins against both the Rabbitohs and the Panthers.

The Cowboys have won ten of their past 12 games as favourites at 1300 Smiles Stadium, but they are a poor 5-7 against the line in this scenario.

Unfortunately, the Dragons aren’t any better as underdogs or away underdogs and this is another game where the market has got the prices for both teams just about right.

The $6 for a St George Illawarra Dragons/North Queensland Cowboys Half-Time/Full-Time double might be worth a dabble as the Cowboys are noted slow starters, while I always like Gavin Cooper at $21 for first try scorer.

Recommended Bet: Check Out The Prop Betting Markets On Offer

The Sydney Roosters produced an improved performance against the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend, but they were still unable to record their first win of the season.

In contrast, the New Zealand Warriors proved far too good for the Newcastle Knights to score their own maiden win of the season and they go into this game as clear favourites.

The Warriors have been a losing betting proposition in just above everything metric in the past 12 months and it should come as no surprise that they don’t have a great record as favourites.

I said that I wouldn’t back the Roosters again until I saw substantial signs of improvement, but I did like what I saw last weekend and they are 4-1 against the line as underdogs in the past 12 months.

At this stage of the season I am still keen to back against the Warriors and I am happy to support the Roosters with a head start of 2.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (+2.5 Points)

The Western Sydney Derby is always a hard fought affair and their should be close to a capacity crowd at Pirtek Stadium on Sunday afternoon to support the in-form Parramatta Eels.

I suggested last week that the Eels might be the real deal this season and although they struggled with the ball in hand they showed a defensive toughness that has been missing for many, many years.

In saying that, the data does not speak well for the Eels as they have lost their past three games as home favourites and their record against the line at Pirtek Stadium is very poor.

The Panthers were fairly sluggish against the Dragons last weekend, but they produced another strong defensive showing and they are another side that is playing tough football.

They have a positive record against the line as underdogs, but the market that stands out for me here is the Over/Under 38.5 points.

The under has saluted in 14 of the last 23 games played by the Panthers, while the under is 7-4 in the past 11 games at Pirtek Stadium.

Recommended Bet: Back The Under (38.5 Points)

This is another game with a clear favourite following the Bulldogs demolition job over the South Sydney Rabbitohs last weekend.

While the Rabbitohs were poor, the Bulldogs took advantage of their opportunities and they are deserving of their position as dominant favourites here.

The Raiders were all over the Gold Coast Titans for the majority of their clash last weekend, but for the second weekend in a row they found a way to throw away what looked like a certain two points.

It would not surprise me to see the Raiders bounce back against the Bulldogs this weekend and they have an excellent record as underdogs in the past 12 months – they have won four of their seven games as underdogs and they are 5-2 against the line as away underdogs.

The Bulldogs have been a losing proposition as favourites over the same period and they are just 5-6 as home favourites, which suggests that the Raiders are a good bet to cover the line with a start of 5.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Raiders To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)