2019 NRL Round 6 Preview

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The NRL sure knows how to treat its fans. As if an Easter long weekend wasn’t enough, there’s a Friday night Grand Final rematch to enjoy this week as the Storm and Roosters kick off from Melbourne.

It’s also a big week for the Broncos as they head south to Canberra, while the up and about Sea Eagles look to make it four in a row.

There are big odds and plenty of upsets on offer, so be sure to check out our entire 2019  NRL Round 6 Preview below.

Cronulla Sharks Vs Penrith Panthers

Thursday 18 April, 7:50pm, Shark Park

A pair of gut-wrenching losses sees the Sharks and the Panthers duel on Thursday night with a potential spot in the top eight up for grabs.

Cronulla’s miserable 30-16 loss to the Roosters has seen the Sharks drop all the way down to ninth on the ladder, while the Panthers’ shortcoming against the Titans leaves Penrith sitting 11th with just two wins from five.

Last year these sides met on three separate occasions with Cronulla adding to their impressive seven game winning streak. Sharks fans will hold fond memories of last year’s narrow one-point win in week two of the finals, but as the stats show, a lot needs to change on defence.

The Sharks were caught flat footed for most of the game as the Roosters picked apart their back line with clever kicks. A 30-0 deficit was made a little more respectable with a trio of late tries, but really, Cronulla’s defence in the dying stages of the first half cost them the game.

As for the Panthers, luck just wasn’t on their side. The Titans stretched apart Penrith’s goal line defence for two early tries before Michael Gordon added another right before the half.

The good news for the Panthers is the Sharks don’t possess quite the same explosive forward line. Speaking of forwards, Penrith’s played exceptionally well last week despite the loss, particularly Vilioame Kikau and halfback Nathan Cleary.

With the Panthers possessing a lot more attacking talent compared to the Sharks, they are worth backing this weekend. With a 2-2 record as the line underdog on the road against Cronulla, the Panthers forward line should keep this close.

Tip: Back the Panthers to Cover the Line (+2.5 Points)

NRL Same Game Multi

Canterbury Bulldogs Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday 19 April, 6:00pm, ANZ Stadium

A Friday night primetime match up against the Rabbitohs is the last thing the Bulldogs need right now. Canterbury were embarrassed by the Dragons last week, while the Rabbitohs withstood an early surge from the Warriors to earn their fourth win of the season.

The great thing about Souths win was their ability to weather the storm. New Zealand kept pace in the first half, but explosive runs (and tries) from Cody Walker ultimately wore the Warriors defence down.

A peak at the market suggests the Rabbitohs should have no trouble with the Dogs this week. Not only do South Sydney rank top five in points and tries so far, they’ve also won three straight over the Bulldogs dating back to 2017.

Canterbury’s biggest problem last week was lack of possession mixed with sloppy missed tackles and handling errors. It’s become a common theme for Dean Pay’s side over the last few weeks, and with an ugly 4-5 record as the underdog at home over the last 12 months, it’s hard to foresee an upset.

Tip: Back the Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.90

NRL Same Game Multi

Melbourne Storm Vs Sydney Roosters

Friday 19 April, 7:55pm, AAMI Park

It’s the headline act of Round 6, and if it’s anything like last year’s Grand Final, we should be in for a real thriller.

The Storm remain unbeaten following last week’s 18-12 win over the Cowboys. It wasn’t the most convincing performance we’ve seen from Craig Bellamy’s side, but Storm fans had to like what they saw from Josh Addo-Carr, who chipped in with two key tries in the second half.

Sydney, meanwhile, polished off the Sharks 30-16 at Shark Park in another huge game for all the Roosters’ stars. Cooper Cronk, Latrell Mitchell and James Tedesco all crossed the line, but perhaps the most impressive part was the way the Roosters manhandled the Sharks on their own line.

Last year’s Grand Final wasn’t the most thrilling game, but it certainly highlighted just how dangerous the Roosters are on the wing. Latrell Mitchell dominated in the middle of the field, while Daniel Tupou made life tough for Suliasi Vunivalu out wide.

The Roosters won’t try anything drastically different this week, which could cause a few problems for the Storm after two casual weeks against the Bulldogs and Cowboys in succession.

Of course, the Storm do hold home-field advantage, but with Sydney holding a 5-1 record as the away underdog at the line, it’s worth backing the Roosters to keep this one close.

Tip: Back the Roosters to Cover the Line (+1.5 Points)

NRL Same Game Multi

New Zealand Warriors Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Saturday April 20, 5:30pm, Mt Smart Stadium

The Cowboys are desperate to snap their four-game losing streak with a win this week, but they’ll have their hands full with an equally hungry Warriors side looking to bounce-back from last week’s loss to Souths.

Stephen Kearney’s side didn’t do a whole lot wrong against the Bunnies, and the coach surely has to find faith in the fact his side matched the Rabbitohs with two tries in the first half.

The Cowboys also have to be proud of their effort against the Storm last week. North Queensland dominated possession at home and caught the Storm off guard with an opening Te Maire Martin try in the 11th minute. Still, North Queensland’s thin line up cost them in the end, and it’s hard to see them weathering a full 80-minutes of football against the likes of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Sam Lisone.

The Cowboys have lost two straight to the Warriors, while their last win in Christchurch came way back in 2015. The Warriors have been a nervous play at home over the last 18 months, but with a 4-1 record as the home favourite against North Queensland, the Warriors should help their top eight cause this weekend.

Tip: Back the Warriors 13+ @ $2.25

NRL Same Game Multi

St George-Illawarra Dragons Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Saturday April 20, 7:35pm, WIN Stadium

No Tom Trbojevic? No worries for Manly.

The Sea Eagles got to work with the chips down last week to pile on three unanswered tries against a woeful Knights side. Manly went on to win 26-18, and not only earned their third-straight win of the season, but also a spot in the top eight.

Things also went well for St. George at home to the Bulldogs. The Dragons beat up on Canterbury 40-4 in a performance headlined by Timoteo Lafai and Ben Hunt’s efforts on attack.

Recent history shows the Dragons have won three-straight over Manly, but the Sea Eagles still look a little over the odds at this price. Manly are 4-6 straight-up as the away underdog over the last 12 months, but more impressively, are 7-3 in the same scenario against the line.

Manly’s attacking runs were brilliant last week, albeit against a desperate Knights side. Quick passing has set up some speedy bursts for the likes of Reuben Garrick and Manase Fainu in recent weeks, and with a gritty win over the Rabbitohs a fortnight ago, Manly are well and truly up to the task.

Tip: Back Manly to Cover the Line (+6.5 Points) @ $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi

Gold Coast Titans Vs Newcastle Knights

Sunday April 21, 2:00pm, CBus Super Stadium

Gold Coast’s forward line dug deep last week to pull out an impressive 30-24 home win over the Panthers – their first of the season.

The Titans dominated possession, largely due to Michael Gordon. The star fullback was also a perfect 5/5 in front of the posts, which spells plenty of bad news for Newcastle as they look to bounce-back from a horror showing against Manly last week.

Newcastle have won only two of their last five games against the Titans, and after last week’s hit and miss display, it’s tough to trust the Knights going forward. On paper, the talent is there for Nathan Brown’s side, but getting everybody on the same page to develop some form of chemistry is an entirely different story.

The Titans found themselves in a similar position earlier in the season, and although they could go without Jarrod Wallace who’s facing suspension for a shoulder charge, Gold Coast’s forward line should do the talking after fighting back twice last week against Penrith.

Tip: Back the Titans to Cover the Line (-1.5 Points) @ $1.90

NRL Same Game Multi

Canberra Raiders Vs Brisbane Broncos

Sunday April 21, 4:05pm, GIO Stadium

The Broncos circus heads south on Sunday to face a lethal Raiders side riding a serious three game winning streak.

To say Canberra’s shutout win over the Eels last week was impressive would be an understatement. The Green Machine lead the league in possession and dummy half runs, highlighting just how dangerous their fast-pace attack has become.

For the Broncos, that only spells bad news after last week’s epic defensive meltdown against the Tigers. It’s been a rough week for Anthony Seibold’s side, and the long list of critics could only grow larger if Brisbane fail to show up in Canberra.

Fortunately for Brisbane though, GIO Stadium has typically been a bit of a stomping ground. The Broncos have won their last four games in Canberra, and despite last week’s shortcomings, the defensive play of Andrew McCullogh could certainly be enough to shutdown the Raiders’ attack.

Brisbane will need a full team effort if they are to silence the critics, and that starts with Darius Boyd, Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima. With their backs against the wall, this could be a season defining game for the Broncos, and with a 3-2 record as the away underdog against Canberra, they are worth taking on.

Tip: Back the Broncos To Win @ $2.14

NRL Same Game Multi

Parramatta Eels Vs Wests Tigers

Monday April 22, 4:00pm, Western Sydney Stadium

The NRL might have saved the best ‘till last for this Easter Monday clash.

Parramatta enter this game as the home favourite despite last week’s 19-0 shutout loss to the Raiders. The Eels were on the back foot early as they scrambled to cover their own line in the first half, while penalties and errors stifled any chance of possession on attack.

The Tigers fared a little better last week in Brisbane, largely due to the Broncos’ lack of interest in playing defence. Wests pulled off an unthinkable 22-16 win thanks to a late Michael Chee-Kam try, while Esan Marsters also finished a perfect 5/5 in front of the posts.

These two sides split their two-game series one win apiece last year, both of which were decided by 10-points or less. The Eels have won three of the last five meetings, but if their attack fails to see much of the ball, it could be a long night against a very powerful Tigers side.

Wests continue to be a bipolar bet for punters, but they do lead the league in runs whilst also ranking top five in tackles. With a strong 3-2 record as the away underdog against Paramatta, the upset is on.

Tip: Back the Tigers to Win @ $2.00

NRL Same Game Multi


2018

The upsets continued in the NRL this weekend and punters that have backed underdogs in the first five rounds of the season have made plenty of cash.

There are a number of short-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend and there are a number of outsiders that do appeal at their current price.

We have analysed every game set to take place this weekend and our complete 2018 NRL Round 6 tips can be found below.

Sydney Roosters Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Thursday 12 April, 7:50pm, Allianz Stadium

The Sydney Roosters returned to their best with a big win over the Cronulla Sharks and they will go into this clash with the South Sydney Rabbitohs as clear favourites.

The Roosters have struggled for consistency so far this season, but their best has been excellent and the combination between Cooper Cronk and Luke Keary is developing nicely.

They have won 16 of their past 21 games as favourites, but they are still only 8-13 against the line in this scenario.

The South Sydney Rabbitohs were not disgraced against the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and they are a better side than their current record suggests.

They have won only three of their past 13 games as underdogs, but they are an excellent 9-4 against the line when being given a start.

There is not as much between these two sides as the current betting market suggests and the Rabbitohs can cover the line with a healthy start.

Back South Sydney To Cover The Line (+8.5 Points)

Melbourne Storm Vs Newcastle Knights

Friday 13 April, 6:00pm, AAMI Park

The Melbourne Storm have suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2015, but they will still go into this clash with the Newcastle Knights as dominant favourites.

Melbourne have now lost to the Wests Tigers on two occasions this season and they are simply not the close to unbeatable force that they were 12 months ago.

The Storm have still won 11 of their past 13 games as home favourites and they are 7-6 against the line in this scenario.

Newcastle returned to winning form with a fighting victory over the Brisbane Broncos, but this is obviously a much tougher assignment.

Melbourne have definitely had the wood over the Knights in recent seasons and Newcastle have covered the line in only five of their past 12 games as away underdogs.

It is tough to imagine the Storm losing three games on the trot and they are a good bet to bounce back to winning ways in impressive fashion.

Back Melbourne To Cover The Line (-10.5 Points)

St George Illawarra Dragons Vs Cronulla Sharks

Friday 13 April, 7:50pm, WIN Stadium

There is no love lost between these two sides and it is set to be the game of the weekend.

The St George Illawarra Dragons improved their record to 5-0 with a narrow win over the South Sydney Rabbitohs and this has been their best start to a season since 1993.

St George Illawarra came from behind to beat the Sharks earlier this season and they have now won eight of their past ten games as home favourites, but they are 4-6 against the line in this scenario.

The Cronulla Sharks produced a flat effort against the Sydney Roosters last weekend and they are a better side than that effort suggests.

Winning away from home has not been an issue for the Sharks over the past 12 months and they have won eight of their past 11 games on the road for as big profit, while they are 3-2 against the line as away underdogs.

The past three games between these sides have been decided by six points or less and this is set to be another close one, so the Dragons are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 5.5 points.

Back Cronulla To Cover The Line (+5.5 Points)

New Zealand Warriors Vs Brisbane Broncos

Saturday 14 April, 3:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium

The New Zealand Warriors continued their stunning start to the season with a win over the North Queensland Cowboys and they will go into this clash with the Brisbane Broncos as clear favourites.

It is impossible to overstate just how well the Warriors have started this season and there was plenty of professionalism about their win against the Cowboys.

New Zealand have won four of their past six games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins, while the home side has won ten of the past 12 games played between these two sides.

The Brisbane Broncos produced another flat effort against the Newcastle Knights last season and they are lucky not to be 0-5.

The halves combination of Anthony Milford and Kodi Nikorima simply hasn’t worked and Wayne Bennett is going to need to make some serious changes if the Broncos are going to make the NRL Finals.

Brisbane have won only one of their past six games as away underdogs and they are 3-3 against the line in this scenario.

I never thought I would say this, but you can actually back the Warriors with some confidence this weekend!

Back New Zealand To Cover The Line (-5.5 Points)

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Saturday 14 April, 5:30pm, 1300SMILES Stadium

The North Queensland Cowboys have lost four games on the trot, but they will still go into this clash with the Canterbury Bulldogs as clear favourites.

North Queensland went into the 2018 NRL season as one of the competition favourites, but they have been extremely poor and there is worrying signs right across the field.

Their attack inside their own 20 has been nothing short of disgraceful and Johnathan Thurston does not look fit.

The Cowboys have still won four of their past six games as home favourites and they have covered the line in each of these wins, but it is tough to back them with any confidence.

Things really aren’t going any better at Canterbury and the Bulldogs have won only one game so far this season.

The Bulldogs have won only two of their past 11 games as away underdogs and their record against the line in this scenario isn’t much better.

North Queensland have won their past five games against the Bulldogs and they will never have a better chance to return to winning form.

Back North Queensland To Cover The Line (-8.5 Points)

Canberra Raiders Vs Parramatta Eels

Saturday 14 April, 7:35pm, GIO Stadium

The Canberra Raiders were finally able to record their first win of the season and they will start this clash with the struggling Parramatta Eels as favourites.

The Raiders produced a professional performance to beat the Canterbury Bulldogs and they should take plenty of confidence from the fact they were actually able to get the job done.

In saying that, it is still tough to beat the Raiders with any real confidence and they have won only five of their past 11 games as home favourites, while they are 3-8 against the line in this scenario.

Parramatta suffered their fifth straight loss and they haven’t started a season 0-6 since 1991.

Scoring points has proven to be a massive issue for the Eels and Brad Arthur doesn’t seem to have any solutions for his sides woes.

It is impossible to back either of these teams with any real confidence and this is a clash that I am more than happy to stay out of.

No Bet

Penrith Panthers Vs Gold Coast Titans

Sunday 15 April, 2:00pm, Panthers Stadium

The Gold Coast Titans recorded an impressive win over the Manly Sea Eagles last weekend, but they will still start this clash as clear underdogs.

Gold Coast have shown plenty of character to follow-up their drubbing at the hands of the St George Illawarra Dragons with back-to-back wins over the Brisbane Broncos and the Sea Eagles.

The Titans have won three of their past ten games as away underdogs and their record against the line isn’t much better.

The Penrith Panthers made it two wins on the trot with a fighting win over the Parramatta Eels and they have suffered only the on defeat so far this season.

Penrith have won eight of their past ten games as home favourites and even more impressive is the fact that they have covered the line in seven of those eight wins.

This is a game that Penrith really should be able to win fairly comfortably and the line of 7.5 points will not be enough.

Back Penrith To Cover The Line (-7.5 Points)

Manly Sea Eagles Vs Wests Tigers

Sunday 15 April, 4:10pm, Brookvale Oval

The Wests Tigers’ incredible start to the season continued with another upset win over the Melbourne Storm, but they will still go into this clash as underdogs.

Ivan Cleary has done a simply outstanding job with the Tigers in 2018 and toughness they showed to beat the Storm, is an incredible testament to the character of this outfit.

The Tigers have won three of their past ten games as away underdogs and they are 7-1-2 against the line in this scenario, but their record at Brookvale Oval is very poor and they have won only one of their past 11 games at the venue.

The Manly Sea Eagles continue to struggle for consistency and they were poor against the Gold Coast Titans last weekend.

A positive fact for the Sea Eagles is the fact that they are 7-3 on the back of a loss over the past 12 months and they have won seven of their past eight games as home favourites.

The Brookvale Oval factor does give Manly the edge and they can make a return to winning form this weekend.

Back Manly To Win @ $1.80


2017

It has been an extremely entertaining start to the 2017 NRL season and we are set for another big weekend of action.

Our 2017 NRL Round 6 tips can be found below and there is plenty of betting interest in all eight matches.

Can the Melbourne Storm maintain their unbeaten start to the season or will the Cronulla Sharks score another big win over their Grand Final rivals?

Brisbane Broncos Vs Sydney Roosters

Thursday 6 April, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane Broncos 32 - Sydney Roosters 8

This is a genuine Thursday night blockbuster between two teams that are both coming off disappointing defeats.

The Brisbane Broncos could hardly have been more disappointing against the Canterbury Bulldogs last weekend, but they will still go into this clash as narrow favourites.

Brisbane have won nine of their past 13 games at Suncorp Stadium, but they have still proven to be a losing betting play as home favourites over the past 12 months.

The Sydney Roosters showed the first chink in their armour against the Manly Sea Eagles last Friday afternoon and they face another tough assignment against the Broncos this weekend.

Winning away from home has proven to be somewhat of an issue for the Roosters over the past 12 months and they have won only one of their past seven games as away underdogs, while they are 3-4 against the line.

The Broncos continue to be strong starters and they have now scored the first points in 24 of their past 31 games – mainly due to their strategy of taking the two points when it is on offer in the early stages of games.

Back Brisbane To Score The First Points @ $1.90

Newcastle Knights Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Friday 7 April, 6:00pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle Knights 12 - Canterbury Bulldogs 22

The Canterbury Bulldogs took the pressure off Des Hasler with their fighting victory over the Brisbane Broncos and they will go into this clash with the Newcastle Knights as clear favourites.

Canterbury were still not overly impressive against Brisbane, but they showed a defensive toughness that has been missing during the early stages of the season.

The Bulldogs have won four of their past five games as away favourites for a clear profit and they have an identical record against the line.

Newcastle almost came from behind to score a massive upset win over the Cronulla Sharks and there is no doubt that they are playing much better football in 2017.

The Knights remain a tough team to trust from a betting perspective and they have won only two of their past 13 games as home underdogs, while they are 4-9 against the line in this scenario.

Canterbury are sure to have taken plenty of confidence from their win over the Broncos and they are a safe bet to comfortably account for the Knights.

Back Canterbury To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)

Penrith Panthers Vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

Friday 7 April, 7:50pm, Pepper Stadium

Penrith Panthers 20 - South Sydney Rabbitohs 21

The Penrith Panthers were no match for the Melbourne Storm last weekend, but they will still start this clash with the South Sydney Rabbitohs as clear favourites.

Penrith lacked composure against the Storm and consistency continues to elude them in the early stages of the season.

The return to Pepper Stadium will help the Panthers – they have won nine of their past 11 games as home favourites and they are 6-5 against the line in this scenario.

For the second week in a row South Sydney went down 20-6, but they did have their opportunities against the North Queensland Cowboys and it was execution that let them down.

The Rabbitohs have won four of their past nine games as away underdogs for a clear profit and they are an excellent 6-3 against the line in this scenario.

I really don’t think that there is as much between these two teams as the current betting market indicates and the Rabbitohs are a great bet to beat the line with a very healthy start.

Back South Sydney To Beat The Line (+9.5 Points)

Manly Sea Eagles Vs St George Dragons

Saturday 8 April, 3:00pm, Brookvale Oval

Manly Sea Eagles 10 - St George Illawarra Dragons 35

This is one of the most interesting games of the round between two of the form teams in the competition.

Manly have been a completely different team since their poor loss against South Sydney in round two and they followed up their wins over North Queensland and Canterbury with a fighting victory over the Sydney Roosters.

The Sea Eagles will go into this clash as clear favourites and this is a position in which they have performed well over the past 12 months – they have won three of their past four games as home favourites and they have the same record against the line.

St George made it three wins on the trot with their comfortable victory over the Wests Tigers and they now sit in second position on the NRL ladder.

It is fair to say that the Dragons have had a fairly easy start to the year in terms of the draw, but they have still been getting the job done.

In saying that, most of their best form has been in front of their home fans and they have won just two of their past seven games as away underdogs.

This really looks like another very winnable clash for Manly and they should be able to cover the line of 4.5 points.

Back Manly To Beat The Line (-4.5 Points)

Gold Coast Titans Vs Canberra Raiders

Saturday 8 April, 5:30pm, Cbus Super Stadium

Gold Coast Titans 16 - Canberra Raiders 42

It has been a tough start to the NRL season for the Gold Coast Titans and they will go into this clash with the Canberra Raiders as clear underdogs.

The Titans had a big lead against the New Zealand Warriors, but they threw it away in the second half and defence continues to be an issue.

Gold Coast have won two of their past seven games as home underdogs for a very small profit, but they are 3-4 against the line in this scenario.

Canberra produced a complete performance to comfortably account for the Parramatta Eels and this is their chance to record back-to-back wins for the first time this season.

The Raiders have actually won four of their past five games as home favourites for a clear profit and they have an identical record against the line.

Canberra have actually played better than their record suggests so far this season and they should comfortably account for the struggling Titans.

Back Canberra To Beat The Line (-6.5 Points)

North Queensland Cowboys Vs Wests Tigers

Saturday 8 April, 7:30pm, 1300Smiles Stadium

North Queensland Cowboys 16 - Wests Tigers 26

The North Queensland Cowboys are the shortest-priced favourites in the NRL this weekend and the market suggests that they should have no trouble dispatching the struggling Wests Tigers.

North Queensland were not at their best against South Sydney last weekend, but they were always in control and cruised to a fairly comfortable victory.

They have now won 11 of their past 12 games as home favourites and they are 7-1-4 against the line in this scenario.

The Wests Tigers produced another poor effort against the St George Illawarra Dragons last weekend and their round one win over South Sydney now seems like an eternity ago.

It is likely that Ivan Cleary will be named the new Wests Tigers coach before this game gets underway and that should give the Tigers some boost, while they have won four of their past ten games as away underdogs for a clear profit.

There is no doubt that North Queensland should win this game comfortably, but the line is a massive 16.5 points and that means this is a clash that I would rather stay out of from a betting perspective.

No Bet

New Zealand Warriors Vs Parramatta Eels

Sunday 9 April, 2:00pm, Mt Smart Stadium

New Zealand Warriors 22 - Parramatta Eels 10

The New Zealand Warriors started the Kieran Foran era with a win over the Gold Coast Titans and they will start this clash as favourites.

New Zealand were slow out of the blocks against the Titans, but they did show some mental toughness to come from behind to win.

The Warriors have still proven to be a losing betting proposition as home favourites – they have won only five of their past nine games in this scenario and they are yet to cover the line in this scenario.

Parramatta suffered their third loss on the trot with a fairly uninspiring performance against the Canberra Raiders and it really is tough to get excited about their prospects this season.

The Eels have struggled away from home over the past 12 months and they have won only one of their past eight games as away underdogs, while they are 3-5 against the line in this scenario.

The betting market that does stand out in this clash is the Total Points betting market and the Over really does look like value.

The Over has saluted in eight of the past 12 games played at Mt Smart Stadium and backing the Over in games involving both these sides has been highly profitable over the past 12 months.

Back Over 41.5 Points

Melbourne Storm Vs Cronulla Sharks

Sunday 9 April, 4:00pm, AAMI Park

Melbourne Storm 2 - Cronulla Sharks 11

This is a Sunday afternoon blockbuster as the Melbourne Storm and the Cronulla Sharks do battle in a rematch of the 2016 NRL Grand Final.

Cronulla beat Melbourne to claim their maiden premiership, but they have made a slow start to the 2017 NRL season.

They have won their past two games against the Parramatta Eels and the Newcastle Knights, but it is fair to say that their performances have not been particularly impressive.

The Sharks will start this clash as underdogs and this is a position in which they have thrived over the past 12 months – they have won five of their past six games as away underdogs for a massive profit and always seem to outperform market expectations on the road.

Melbourne consolidated their positions as premiership favourites with an excellent effort against the Penrith Panthers and they really have made a scintillating start to the season.

They are clearly deserving of their position as premiership favourites and already look like a fairly safe bet to claim the minor premiership.

The Storm have won ten of their past 13 games as home favourites for a clear profit, but they are only 6-7 against the line in this scenario.

It really would not surprise to see Cronulla go to another level against a side like the Melbourne Storm and they are a great bet to cover the line with a start of 7.5 points.

Back Cronulla To Beat The Line (+7.5 Points)

 


2016

The fiercest rivalry in the NRL continues this weekend when the South Sydney Rabbitohs and Sydney Roosters do battle in Friday Night Football.

The rest of the round is highlighted by Grand Final rematches, with the New Zealand Warriors set to host the Manly Sea Eagles on Saturday night before the Melbourne Storm and Canterbury Bulldogs replicate the 2013 Premiership decider in Monday Night Football.

Brisbane Broncos Vs St George Dragons

Thursday 7 April, 7:50pm, Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane Broncos 26 - St George Illawarra Dragons 0

The Brisbane Broncos were always in control against the Gold Coast Titans last weekend and they are clear favourites to continue their winning streak against a struggling St George Illawarra Dragons.

The Broncos continue to be a very consistent betting side and they have lost just three of their past ten games as home favourites, while they are 8-5 against the line in the same scenario.

St George Illawarra were extremely poor against the North Queensland Cowboys last weekend and they will need to improve significantly in both offense and defense to have any chance this weekend.

The Dragons are 6-9 against the line as underdogs in the past 12 months and that record does not improve when they travel away from Sydney.

The data suggests that the Broncos should have no problems covering the line of 14 points and their is also another betting play that stands out here.

The under has saluted in two of the past 13 Dragons games and the Broncos have been a perennial unders team since the return of Wayne Bennett.

Recommended Bets: Back The Brisbane Broncos To Beat The Line (-14 Points) And Under (38.5 Points)

South Sydney Rabbitohs Vs Sydney Roosters

Friday 8 April, 7:50pm, ANZ Stadium

South Sydney Rabbitohs 10 - Sydney Roosters 17

The rivalry between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and Sydney Roosters is one of the fiercest in all of Australian sport, but neither side is taking a great deal of form into this fixture.

South Sydney got the win against Manly last Thursday Night, but they were still far from convincing and they will be without Adam Reynolds again this weekend.

The Roosters are still chasing their first win of the season after a heart-breaking golden point defeat at the hands of the New Zealand Warriors, but they continue to show improvement.

The Rabbitohs have proven a safe betting play as favourites in the past 12 months and they are 7-2 as favourites in front of their home fans in this period, but their record against the line is far from convincing in this scenario.

Sydney are 2-2 as away underdogs in the past 12 months and their record against the line is 3-1, which makes them an interesting betting proposition again this weekend.

They might not be able to score their first win of the season, but this should be a closer game than the betting suggests and I am keen to back the Roosters with the start of a converted try.

Recommended Bet: Back The Sydney Roosters To Beat The Line (+6 Points)

Parramatta Eels Vs Canberra Raiders

Saturday 9 April, 3:00pm, Pirtek Stadium

Parramatta Eels 36 - Canberra Raiders 6

The Parramatta Eels have come back to earth with a thud following their last minute loss to the Parramatta Eels, while the Canberra Raiders returned to winning form with an excellent performance against the Canterbury Bulldogs.

The Eels are clear favourites again here and this has been a position in which they have really struggled in the past 12 months – they are 3-9 as favourites and 0-4 at Pirtek Stadium.

In contrast, Canberra have been a clear winning proposition as underdogs in the past 12 months and they have won five of their last eight games as away underdogs.

They are 6-2 against the line in the same scenario and I am keen to really get behind the Raiders this weekend, who I believe have just as much talent in their side as the Eels.

Recommended Bets: Back The Canberra Raiders To Win @ $2.55 And To Beat The Line (+4.5 Points)

New Zealand Warriors Vs Manly Sea Eagles

Saturday 9 April, 5:30pm, Mt Smart Stadium

New Zealand Warriors 18 - Manly Sea Eagles 34

The New Zealand Warriors historically have a very poor record against the Manly Sea Eagles and have won just two of the past 14 games played between the two sides, but will start this game as clear favourites.

The Warriors survived a scare against the Roosters last weekend and they still look far from impressive, while the Sea Eagles were the better team against the Rabbitohs, but were unable to walk away with the two points.

It still staggers me that the Warriors are such short-priced favourites here as they have been a losing betting proposition in just about every metric in the past 12 months and they are 4-8 against the line in front of their home fans.

Manly have not been overly impressive in the past 12 months, but they have still been a strong betting side and they have won five of their past 11 games as underdogs.

They will be without Daly Cherry-Evans again, but Dylan Walker and Apisai Koroisau will have benefited from the game against the Rabbitohs and can lead their team to an upset victory.

Recommended Bet: Back Manly Sea Eagles To Win @ $3.15

Penrith Panthers Vs North Queensland Cowboys

Saturday 9 April, 7:30pm, Pepper Stadium

Penrith Panthers 18 - North Queensland Cowboys 23

The North Queensland Cowboys have won five of their last six games against the Penrith Panthers and are favourites to beat their rivals against this weekend.

The Cowboys played at their brilliant best against the Dragons last weekend and if they produce a similar performance this weekend they will prove too good for the Panthers, while they been a strong betting proposition as away favourites in the past 12 months.

Penrith have performed well this season and their record against the line as away favourites is 5-2 and they have to be respected, but the Cowboys simply have too many weapons for their rivals and are well over the odds at their current quote of $1.70.

Recommended Bet: Back The North Queensland Cowboys To Win @ $1.70

Cronulla Sharks Vs Gold Coast Titans

Sunday 10 April, 2:00pm, Shark Park

Cronulla Sharks 25 - Gold Coast Titans 20

The Cronulla Sharks made it two wins on the trot when they scored a controversial win over the Wests Tigers last weekend, while the Gold Coast Titans were gallant in defeat against the Brisbane Broncos.

Cronulla have opened as clear favourites and they have been a very safe bet in this scenario in the past 12 months – they are 5-3 in head to head betting as home favourites and they have the exact same record against the lie.

The Titans have defied expectations during this season to date and they covered the line against the Broncos last weekend, but their record away from home has not been particularly convincing and they are 5-7 as away favourites.

The Sharks have developed into a professional football outfit and I am confident that they can put away the Titans to beat the line of 10.5 points.

Recommended Bet: Back The Cronulla Sharks To Beat The Line (-10.5 Points)

Newcastle Knights Vs Wests Tigers

Sunday 10 April, 4:00pm, Hunter Stadium

Newcastle Knights 18 - Wests Tigers 16

The Newcastle Knights are still yet to win a game this season, but they have produced improved performances in recent weeks and they were gallant in defeat against the Melbourne Storm last weekend.

Expectations were very high for the Wests Tigers when they started the season with back-to-back wins, but they have now lost three games on the trot and they appear to be a worse outfit with Robbie Farah on the park.

The Tigers are very narrow favourites here and this will be the first time in the past 12 months that they have started an away game as favourite, but their record as favourites in recent times is a truly putrid 1-5.

The only problem here is that the Knights have been an awful betting proposition across a number of different metrics in the past 12 months and they really can’t be trusted.

There really aren’t any betting markets here and I am happy to let these two struggling outfits battle it out.

Recommended Bet: No Bet

Melbourne Storm Vs Canterbury Bulldogs

Monday 11 April, 7:00pm, AAMI Park

The Melbourne Storm keep grinding away this season and they have lost just the one game, but they haven’t really looked particularly good in the process.

Canterbury have looked liker premiership contenders at times in 2016, but they have also thrown in a number of absolute stinkers and they were very poor against the Raiders last Monday night.

The Storm as favourites at AAMI Park is one of the safest bets in the NRL and they have lost only two of their past ten games in this scenario, but their record against the line at home is only middling.

The Bulldogs have covered the line in five of their last eight games as away favourites, but the line of 2.5 points is not particularly generous and I have turned to the total points betting markets for the value.

The Under has saluted in 17 of the last 25 games played bu the Storm and 15 of the last 24 games involving the Bulldogs, so it clearly the play on Monday night.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 38.5 Points