It’s time for our EPL Week 5 Preview as we get ready for a Sort of Super Sunday, headlined by the always entertaining Arsenal-Chelsea fixture.
This round is also the first time this season that the big clubs will have to back up from European competition and it will be the first real test of the squads assembled over the European summer.
Bournemouth Vs Brighton And Hove Albion
Saturday 16 September, 5:00am, Goldsands Stadium
The round of football kicks off with an early wake-up call Saturday as second to last Bournemouth hosts Brighton, fresh off their first win of the campaign.
It will also be the first time these sides have met in the Premier League and even at this early stage, both sides will be desperate for some positive momentum.
Neither team has been overly potent in front of goals this year as Brighton only managed their first goal last weekend and Charlie Daniels has scored the only goal for Bournemouth.
During their matches in the lower divisions, the “Under 2.5 Goals” market has hit in five of the last six meetings between these sides.
Based on that form, it is hard to see this game having a whole lot of goals in it and the pick here is to expect something similar.
Back “Under 2.5 Goals” @ $1.67
Crystal Palace Vs Southampton
Saturday 16 September, 9:30pm, Selhurst Park
Palace were the first side to sack their manager this week as Frank De Boer was relieved of his duties after four losses and he will be replaced by Roy Hodgson, most recently seen mentoring Melbourne City.
They are the only team yet to score this year and face a tough test in Southampton whom they have traded victories with in their last five contests.
Until Palace settle on their identity under Hodgson they are a team that bears watching but not investing on.
Huddersfield Town Vs Leicester City
Sunday 17 September, 12:00am, John Smith’s Stadium
Huddersfield’s fast start to Premier League life was halted at the weekend when West Ham knocked them off 2-0 while Leicester pushed Chelsea but fell 2-1.
The combination of Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez has been fruitful for the Foxes so far with three goals and two assists respectively.
The other end of the pitch has been problematic for them however as they are averaging two goals conceded per game.
Huddersfield matches are not as free scoring and it took a fortunate deflection for West Ham to break their defence for the first time this season.
They did allow their opponents plenty of chances to get that opening goal however and the Leicester attack might be able to turn this game into a shootout.
I expect both teams to get on the scoreboard here and Jamie Vardy to be the man to get the party started.
Back Jamie Vardy as First Goal Scorer @ $5
Liverpool Vs Burnley
Sunday 17 September, 12:00am, Anfield
Liverpool will undoubtedly be smarting after their drubbing at the hands of Manchester City and will look to bounce back against Burnley at Anfield.
It looms as a potential slip up as they will be backing up from a tough Champions League clash with Sevilla and Burnley have already sprung two surprise results this year.
They will be fancying their chances of gaining points off a Champions League club and with their record this year it’s easy to see why.
With that in mind, I can’t see Liverpool having two letdowns in a row in the league and think they will be able to bounce back here but it won’t be easy.
Back Liverpool to win both halves at $2.75
Newcastle United Vs Stoke City
Sunday 17 September, 12:00am, St James’ Park
St James’s Park is not a happy hunting ground for Stoke as of late having failed to win there in the league since 2011/2012.
They have come away with two draws and will be feeling confident after holding Manchester United to a draw in their last game.
Newcastle themselves are in good form at the moment, defeating West Ham & Swansea in their last two outings.
Last season these sides played out a scoreless draw at St James’ Park and I expect that to happen again as my long shot pick of the week.
There were no scoreless matches last week and this one will break that trend.
Back Under Total Goals 0.5 @ $8.50
Watford Vs Manchester City
Sunday 17 September, 12:00am, The Hawthorns
It’s a phrase not many people would be expecting to say but fourth placed Watford host second placed Manchester City with both coming off convincing wins last weekend.
City have a significant advantage in matches between the two, winning all four meetings since their rebirth in 2008 including a 5-0 hammering on the final day of last season.
Watford will fancy themselves to continue their hot start to the season with a vocal home crowd behind them however both their victories have come away from home.
Form is a fickle thing in football but City should be able to get home comfortably in this game, even with their midweek exertions.
Back Manchester City to win & over 3.5 goals @ $2.80
West Bromwich Albion Vs West Ham United
Sunday 17 September, 12:00am, The Hawthorns
West Ham are finally off the mark in 2017/2018 with their win over Huddersfield, it was also their first home game of the season so as a reward for that, they are back on the road to face West Brom.
Historically this game has been a bit of an arm wrestle between the two sides with plenty of draws and in the case of last season, plenty of goals.
In each of the last four games, the Over 2.5 goals market has come through and there hasn’t been a scoreless draw since December 2012.
Add onto that eight of the last thirteen contests have been a draw and you can see why the tip here is for a score draw.
Back both teams to score & a Draw @ $4.50
Tottenham Hotspur Vs Swansea City
Sunday 17 September, 2:30am, Wembley
As Spurs adapt to their temporary confines of Wembley stadium they have a European & League double header there.
Their results at the home of the England National team have not been inspiring so far with a draw and loss in the league however the hope Thursday morning’s emphatic victory will kick start a good run of form.
Historically they have had Swansea’s number in particular last season winning both games with an aggregate of 8-1.
Expect Mauricio Pochettino to find a way to keep his side fresh after their midweek exploits and find a way to get their first Premier League win at Wembley.
Back Tottenham to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73
Chelsea Vs Arsenal
Sunday 17 September, 10:30am, Stamford Bridge
You used to be able to count on this fixture to produce some fireworks between Arsene Wenger and Jose Mourinho but the relationship between the Frenchman and Antonio Conte appears to be much more affable.
What hasn’t changed however is Chelsea’s historical domination of Arsenal, particularly at the Bridge where they are favourites to win once more.
The Blues will be much more rested than their opponents too, having a Wednesday morning (AEST) home tie in the Champions League while Arsenal do not play until Friday in the Europa League.
It’s hard to see any other result than a Chelsea win and with Arsenal’s uncertain form it should be a multiple goal margin.
Back Chelsea to win -1 goal @ $3.10
Manchester United Vs Everton
Monday 18 September, 1:00am, Old Trafford
United are looking the goods early on and while the draw at Stoke ended their dreams of a perfect season, they are travelling much better than their opponents who are on a poor run of form.
United have plenty of goals in them and will look to pile the pressure on a leaky Everton defence however it might be with the squad players depending on how Mourinho wants to approach this game.
There are also questions about how they will handle Paul Pogba’s hamstring injury and what that will do to their midfield, the good news is there is still plenty of talent there to call on.
The best bet here is to take Man United to win but I’m not a fan of the value at $1.33 so leave this game alone.
Week 5 of the 2016/2017 season begins with an absolute blockbuster between Chelsea and Liverpool and this is easily the biggest game of the weekend.
Leicester City have the chance to pick up three points in front of their home fans against Burnley, while there are a number of games that should be extremely tight.
This is a great weekend for English Premier League betting and you can find our thoughts and betting predictions for every game below.
Chelsea Vs Liverpool
Friday 16 September, 5:45am, Stamford Bridge
This will be a fascinating clash between two of the most interesting teams in the English Premier League this season.
Chelsea dropped two points due to a couple of defensive lapses against Swansea City and they will need to be much stronger at the back to repel a Liverpool outfit that has been very impressive at times this season.
It is no secret that Chelsea have struggled at home in the past 12 months, but they will still start this game as favourites and they have won just seven of their past 19 games in this scenario.
Liverpool bounced back to their brilliant best with a demolition job against Leicester City last weekend and no side in the English Premier League is playing more exciting football than Jurgen Klopp’s men.
The Reds seem to play their best football against the better sides in the competition and they have won three of their past six games as away underdogs for a healthy profit.
Chelsea are far too short at their current quote and there is a genuine edge at the $3.30 on offer for a Liverpool victory.
Back Liverpool To Win @ $3.20
Hull City Vs Arsenal
Sunday 18 September, 12:00am, KC Stadium
Arsenal are on the back-up in this clash after they started their UEFA Champions League campaign against Paris Saint Germain on Wednesday.
The Gunners got the job done against Southampton last weekend to make it two wins in a row and they are clear favourites to win again this weekend.
Arsenal have not been the most reliable side as away favourites in the past 12 months (7-5-3) and it is tough to get them as short as their current quote of $1.57.
Hull City have defied all expectations to make such a positive start to the English Premier League season and they claimed their seventh point with their last minute equaliser against Burnley last weekend.
This is obviously a much tougher assignment for Hull, but they have shown during this season to date that they have the ability to frustrate far more talented sides.
Arsenal really should be able to claim the victory, but I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.
Leicester City Vs Burnley
Sunday 18 September, 12:00am, King Power Stadium
Leicester City have had a tough start to their English Premier League title defence and they have just the one win from their first four games.
The reigning champions were comprehensively outplayed by Liverpool last weekend, but this is an easier assignment and they will go into this clash as clear favourites.
Leicester City’s record as home favourites has been unmatched by any other side in the EPL this season and they have won nine of their 12 games in this scenario.
Burnley were unlucky not to take all three points from their clash with Hull City and they have made a more than credible start in their return to the English Premier League.
Sean Dyche’s men have shown an ability to sit back and frustrate their rivals during the English Premier League season to date and that is the exact style of football that can really frustrate this Leicester City outfit.
I am not willing to bet against Leicester City in front of their home fans, but I can’t get them as short as their current price of $1.53.
Manchester City Vs Bournemouth
Sunday 18 September, 12:00am, Etihad Stadium
Manchester City are another EPL side that will be on the quick back-up following the start of their Champions League campaign.
Manchester City justified their position as clear favourites to claim the English Premier League title with their win over Manchester United and they will go into this clash with Bournemouth as extremely short-priced favourites.
Pep Guardiola’s men are obviously going to be very tough to beat in this clash and they are yet to lose in the EPL this season, but their record as home favourites in the past 12 months has not been particularly convincing.
Bournemouth recorded their first win of the season with a narrow win over West Bromwich Albion and that will give them some much-needed confidence.
Bournemouth have won three of their past 15 games as away underdogs for a narrow profit, but you couldn’t possibly back them in this clash.
The betting market that stands out in this clash is the $2.75 available for both teams to score and Manchester City to win.
Manchester City have shown they are more than capable of conceding a goal – especially with Claudio Bravo still adjusting to the EPL – and it would not surprise to see them concede in this clash.
Back Both teams to score and Manchester City to win @ $2.75
West Bromwich Albion Vs West Ham United
Sunday 18 September, 12:00am, The Hawthorns
The betting market suggests that this will be the most even clash of the weekend.
West Bromwich Albion suffered a disappointing loss to Bournemouth last weekend, but they will still go into this clash with West Ham as narrow favourites.
This has not been a position in which they have thrived in the past 12 months – they have won just two of their past game games in this scenario for a big loss.
West Ham’s defense absolutely fell apart in the second half of their clash with Watford last weekend and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back against West Brom.
Dimitri Payet remains in simply sparkling form and if he fires West Ham are going to be very difficult to beat, while the Hammers have won taken points from ten of their past 16 games as away underdogs for a big profit.
The $2.88 available for a West Ham victory is well over the odds and they are arguably the best bet of the weekend.
Back West Ham To Win @ $2.88
Everton Vs Middlesbrough
Sunday 18 September, 2:30am, Goodison Park
Everton have made their best start to an English Premier League season for a decade and they are favourites to win again against Middlesbrough this weekend.
Everton made it three wins on the trot with a simply dominant performance against Sunderland – with Romelu Lukaku claiming a hat-trick – and a similar performance would likely be more than enough to see off Middlesbrough.
Their record at Goodison Park still needs to improve as they have won just six of their past 13 games at the venue for a narrow loss.
Middlesbrough suffered their first loss of the English Premier League season to Crystal Palace last weekend, but they have still made a positive start to their new life in this competition.
There has been plenty of positive signs to take from each of their games to date, but it is fair to say that this will be their toughest assignment.
This is a game that the market looks to have got just about right and I am happy to stay out from a betting perspective.
Watford Vs Manchester United
Sunday 18 September, 9:00pm, Vicarage Road
Manchester United suffered their first loss of the Jose Mourinho-era against arch-rivals Manchester City and they will need to bounce back against Watford this weekend.
It is clear that Mourinho is still struggling to work out what is his new sides best formation and they really have not been particularly impressive in any of their games to date this season.
Manchester United will still go into this clash as clear favourites, but they have won just six of their past 14 games as away favourites.
Watford produced their best performance of the season to date to record an impressive victory over West Ham and they are a side that is more than capable of stringing wins together.
The problem for Watford is that they have generally struggled as home underdogs – they have won just one of their past 10 games in this scenario for a sizeable loss.
Manchester United continue to struggle somewhat on defence and that makes the $3.50 on offer for both teams to score and the Red Devils to win particularly attractive.
Back Both Teams To Score And Manchester United To Win @ $3.50
Crystal Palace Vs Stoke City
Sunday 18 September, 11:15pm, Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace have bounced back from their slow start to the season to take four points from their past two games and they will start this clash with Stoke City as clear favourites.
Christian Benteke had an immediate impact when he scored in Crystal Palace’s upset victory over Middlesbrough and this another winnable game for this side.
Home favourtism has not been a particularly strong position for Crystal Palace in the past 12 months and they have won just five of their 13 games in this scenario.
Stoke City are still chasing their first win of the season after suffering three straight losses to Manchester City, Everton and Tottenham.
This is the easiest assignment that they have faced in sometime and their record as away favourites is right up there with the very best in the competition – they have won six and drawn four of their past 16 games in this scenario.
I am more than happy to take on Crystal Palace at their current quote and the $4 available for a Stoke City victory is well over the odds.
Back Stoke City To Win @ $4
Southampton Vs Swansea City
Sunday 18 September, 11:15pm, St Mary's Stadium
Southampton have made a very poor start to the English Premier League season and they need to take the three points from this clash to get their campaign back on track.
Southampton were far from disgraced against Arsenal, but they were still beaten and they are still chasing their first victory of the season.
The Saints will go into this clash as clear favourites and this is a position in which they have been just about even in the past 12 months – they have won eight and drawn five of their past 15 games in this scenario.
Swansea City showed plenty of character to fight out a draw with Chelsea last weekend and they continue to be somewhat inconsistent to date this season.
They have won only three of their past 16 games as away underdogs, but the majority of these wins have come at a big price and they have been highly profitable in this scenario.
I have seen plenty of worrying signs from Southampton this season and I am happy to take them on once again with Swansea City.
Back Swansea City To Win @ $5
Tottenham Hotspur Vs Sunderland
Monday 19 September, 1:30am, White Hart Lane
Tottenham have dominated Sunderland in recent seasons and they have won six of the past seven games played between the two sides.
That record is expected to continue in 2016 and Tottenham will start this game as clear favourites.
Tottenham were far too strong for a hapless Stoke City last weekend and they have won ten and drawn five of their past 18 games as home favourites.
Sunderland have made a typically underwhelming start to the English Premier League season and they were simply no match for Everton last Tuesday morning.
The Black Cats have won just three of their past 18 games for a loss and they would need to improve significantly to have any chance of recording an upset win.
Tottenham are clearly the team to beat, but there is no value at their current quote and I am happy to stay out of this clash from a betting perspective.