Read on for our Ladbrokes Underdog’s Guide to the Melbourne Cup: Long Shot Nominations Worth a Second Look!
The first round of nominations for the 2025 Melbourne Cup closed earlier in the week, and we’ve got 120 gallopers in the mix for the 165th running of the now $10 million showpiece staying showdown.
To help punters unlock the value in this beauty of a race, we’ve run our eye over the early form guides and come up with the 10 Melbourne Cup outsiders in early betting that you should be across.
These gallopers may be getting zero love in post-nomination Melbourne Cup markets, but our tip is to ignore them at your own peril!
We saw Knight’s Choice steal the show last year at blowout odds of $91, and he was one of a long line of underrated champs to take out what is now the world’s richest handicap.
Over the illustrious history of this show-stopping, two-mile classic we’ve had four 100/1 pops take out top honours including, most recently, Prince Of Penzance in 2015 who was famously ridden to victory by Michelle Payne.
So, will we find ourselves with another double or even triple-figure winner in the 2025 Melbourne Cup on Tuesday November 4?
If we do, let’s hope it is one from our list below!
MIDDLE EARTH (GB) – Ciaron Maher
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $26
Why Watch: Ciaron Maher has another smart UK import with the right credentials for a bid this spring.
This Roaring Lion six-year-old is the one Maher has put on the top of his list of contenders, and the horse is already proven he can stick it out in those tough-as-nails European Group races.
He showed up in Australia, not wasting any time when bagging the Australian Cup Prelude back in March on debut down under.
He was then unplaced twice in Group 1 company beaten by big margins in back-to-back 2000m events, but he’ll be prepped to run better over further.
He’s got upside, the 3200m will be to his liking, and he should get in okay weight-wise.
He’s one of the early picks lighting up the page for me, stay tuned.
Tip: Maher won the 2022 Melbourne Cup with Gold Trip who also ran second in the Caulfield Cup so watch for Middle Earth in the spring lead-ups.
AELIANA (NZ) – Chris Waller
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $34
Why Watch: This Australian Derby-winning filly from Chris Waller’s camp straight-up trounced the boys by five lengths as a three-year-old.
She then rocked up after a break and nearly nabbed Via Sistina in the Group 1 Winx Stakes, giving the queen a run for her money fresh.
She’s not here to mess around and shapes as a legit Spring Cups threat as part of Waller’s powerhouse team of 27 entries.
Word on the street is Waller might be eyeing the Cox Plate for her instead of pushing for the longer features as a 4YO mare.
But she’s got an engine that’ll run all day and is worth a cheeky shot in all-in markets just in case they let her off the leash.
You don’t want to miss it if she goes the distance.
Tip: Makybe Diva for the first of her three Melbourne Cup victories in 2003 was the last 4YO mare to win.
Read more on the big spring potential of Aeliana in our The Spring Prospect Watchlist: Derby Queen Ready for More!
OKITA SOUSHI (IRE) – Ciaron Maher
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $34
Why Watch: Another exciting prospect for Maher, Okita Soushi was last year’s Melbourne Cup third placegetter who is back for another crack at the Cup.
Winner of the Moonee Valley Gold Cup before rounding out the 2024 Cup trifecta under a length off Knight’s Choice, he’s a proper stayer and two miles is right in his wheelhouse – no question.
With his 3200m prowess he could again prove a genuine top three hope.
In his recent first-up run at The Valley, getting beaten by over 17 lengths to run last (10th) in a handicap with 61kg might not look spectacular, he is known to improve significantly as he gets over a more suitable staying trip.
That was over 1523m so it was more like a stretching session than a real race.
He’ll be in with a light weight again and more hardened having done the prep work once before.
See how he tracks in the lead-ups but should go close again.
Tip: Okita Soushi was in on just 51kg in last year’s Melbourne Cup so if he’s allocated anything similar to that again in 2025, he’ll be strong in the finish.
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA) – Brian Ellison
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $34
Why Watch: Another of the eight-year-old Cup campaigners, this American bred son of Dialed In is trained by British horseman Brian Ellison.
He crashed the Melbourne Cup conversation last year after crushing it in the Geelong Cup in his Australian debut, only to run 12th some five lengths beaten.
His form overseas since has been hit and miss, but I’m happy to rule a line through his 19th in the Ebor when 61kg proved too much of an impost.
He’ll get his chance with less kilos in the Cup for his second shot and it wouldn’t shock me to see him in the Top 6 this time around.
Tip: Twilight Payment (2020) was the last eight-year-old Melbourne Cup winner and the first since Catalogue in 1938. Can the veterans rule in 2025?
PARCHMENT PARTY (USA) – William Mott
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $34
Why Watch: This stayer from the States rolls in with Hall of Famer William Mott and is ready to make some serious noise.
Could he become the first U.S.-trained horse to not only contest the Melbourne Cup but take the top prize?
He punched his ticket with a Group 2 Belmont Gold Cup win and a strong Birdstone Stakes performance.
He put 8.5 lengths on the next best in the Belmont Gold Cup over 2816m on a heavy track going back in June in an enormous performance that suggests he’ll eat up 3200m without a worry.
Folks are side eyeing his turf game and sure, the quarantine logistics are a pain, but he’s been so good at home and if anyone’s earned a crack at this, it’s him.
Tip: French trained Americain in 2010 was the last American-bred Melbourne Cup champ.
BASILINNA (NZ) – Emma-Lee & David Browne
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $51
Why Watch: Kiwi-bred Staphanos mare Basilinna is trained by Emma-Lee and David Browne and she’s one of the heart-string picks for a lot of punters.
Don’t let the sentiment fool you, there’s strategy all over this with a carefully planned prep ahead.
She secured a guaranteed start via her Andrew Ramsden win back in May.
Small stable, big ambitions, and you can tell they’ve mapped her road to the Cup out like a military operation.
Winning over a serious staying trip at HQ? She’s definitely got the lungs for 3200m, no question.
Plus, she’ll barely notice the weight and will be practically floating, which is a huge advantage in the Cup.
If you’re looking for a roughie to throw a few early bucks at, this one could totally blow up the exotics.
Tip: Verry Elleegant (2021) is the only Melbourne Cup winning mare since the Makybe Diva three-peat from 2003-05.
ALALCANCE (GB) – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $51
Why Watch: You can’t miss this big grey girl by Mastercraftsman with the Waterhouse/Bott crew having worked some magic with this bonny mare.
She’s gone from just another Euro maiden to a legit chance in the Melbourne Cup.
Despite dominant wins in the Manion Cup and Chairman’s Quality over the autumn, things didn’t go to plan in the Group 1 Sydney Cup (3200m) when 17th over 16 lengths behind Arapaho.
It was a rough watch.
It had been a long prep and Clark said she’d just come to the end of it.
They threw blinkers on her, but she just got too keen and burned herself out.
But look – don’t write her off just because of one bad day, I still believe she’s got the gas in the tank to get two miles.
Plus, Arapaho, the one who beat her in the Sydney Cup, came back and ran a blinder for third in the Winx Stakes.
The bookies have her at monster odds for the country’s other Group 1 two-mile event, and I’m not ruling her out just yet.
She’s tough and has something to prove.
We get a first look at her for the spring in Friday’s Listed Wyong Gold Cup and a nice performance there will go a long way.
It would make for one great Cup tale!
Tip: Six greys have won the Melbourne Cup with Efficient (2007) the latest!
KNIGHT’S CHOICE – John Symons & Sheila Laxon
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $51
Why Watch: Last year’s shock winner is sitting way out at juicy odds if you think he’s got it in him to pull off the impossible twice.
I mean, back-to-back Cup wins almost never happens, but if anyone’s got the guts and the know-how to handle Flemington under pressure it is this Sunshine Coast stayer.
It was a historic upset last year, and if you believe in fairytales then here is your sign to back him to write one.
We haven’t seen this guy since he just nudged out the Japanese raider Warp Speed by a nostril flare in the 2024 Cup quinella, but he’s looked very sharp with two subsequent trial wins.
It’ll be a feat but there’ll be some money on him to do it at this price.
Tip: Only five horses have won the Melbourne Cup more than once and none since Makybe Diva who remains the only three-time champion in history.
ZARDOZI – Ciaron Maher
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $51
Why Watch: Does Maher have the most underrated Melbourne Cup team in 2025?
Yet another from the ace trainer in the mix is this always classy mare, formerly with James Cummings, who ran a strong fourth-place last year in a huge performance that came just three days off her Group 1 Empire Rose fifth over a mile.
She’s a mare that does best with a lot of racing, which she proved last spring.
The Cup fourth was no fluke as she’d also run second in Sydney’s The Metrop and fourth in the Caulfield Cup, so she’s well up to this class.
She was right in the mix all autumn too including an Australian Cup third before a disappointing 12th in the Sydney Cup.
Cummings had taken an unconventional approach to her preparation leading-up to that, relying on residual fitness from her Melbourne Cup campaign and shorter-distance lead-ups, so I’m not reading too much into that.
She’s with Maher now and he’ll know exactly how to get the best out of her.
The now five-year-old daughter of Kingman looks set to really mature and come into her own now.
I’ll definitely be throwing a few dollars her way in the futures again.
LA CRIQUE (NZ) – Simon Alexander
Current Melbourne Cup Odds: $101
Why Watch: La Crique is an absolute consistency machine from across the Tasman who I have got my eye on at triple-figures for the Ladbrokes Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and the Melbourne Cup.
Simon & Katrina Alexander’s Vadamos seven-year-old could be placed anywhere this prep, and I don’t want to miss these overs on a mare that is so damn classy.
Look, no doubt the 3200m will be a stretch as she’s yet to win over further than 2100m, but she does not know how to run a bad race.
She was runner-up in a NZ Derby as a three-year-old in 2022 but has been kept to the middle-distance features over the past few years.
Back home she’s a multiple Group 1 winner, and her last four runs in New Zealand have all produced Group 1 seconds around the 1600m – 2000m range.
She’ll more likely target the Cox Plate, but just in case, I’m taking her at the 100/1.
With proven Group 1 form, and a mission driven by family legacy and unfinished business at Flemington following her Empire Rose fourth in 2022, she’s nominated for a reason.
Honestly, nobody’s really talking about these guys, but boy, they shout “potential upset” louder than the crowds at HQ on Melbourne Cup Day.
Maybe they’re not hogging the spotlight on the odds boards, but look closer: rock-solid form, a dash of international flair, and stamina for days.
That’s a recipe you don’t just ignore.
Right now, they’re not exactly front-page news, just quietly grinding away out of the limelight.
But their bloodlines, past runs, and the folks behind them? Way more impressive than people are giving them credit for.
It wouldn’t shock us at all if one of these so-called “outsiders” blow up the script and turn the Cup on its head.
Keep your eyes peeled – there’s always a dark horse ready to crash the racing’s biggest party.
Don’t forget to check out our The Punters’ Playbook: Flemington Spring Carnival Deep Dive for the inside word on the jockeys, trainers and races to watch over the following months!
All Melbourne Cup odds quoted are all-in from Ladbrokes, correct at time of publish and subject to change at any time without notice.