Big odds, big moves – Ladbrokes Saturday roughies are primed to cause a stir as always!
The Sydney and Melbourne race cards this Saturday are loaded with talent with wall-to-wall contenders lining up at Randwick and Caulfield.
Of course, the talk of the town is the ninth running of the world’s richest turf race where Hong Kong hero Ka Ying Rising is odds-on to beat the locals in the $20 million The Everest.
But we’ve got the value for an Each Way play if he doesn’t fire down under as well as the best longshots across The Everest Day card to help you rise to the top of the mountain.
Down south and the countdown to the ‘race that stops a nation’ heats up with a double-shot of Group 1 action on the Caulfield Cup Day schedule.
We’ve got a discounted Caulfield Cup runner that can sneak in the Top 4 at blowout odds plus our other Caulfield best bets at $10 or more.
Lucy Henderson’s got her eye on a few roughies — dive into The Value Whisperer’s Saturday watchlist below.
Randwick Race 5 (2:50PM AEDT) – $2 million The Kosciuszko (1200M)
No. 4 Melody Again ($18 at time of publish)
MELODY AGAIN (8) resumes in the other mountain race on Saturday and Scott Singleton’s consistent Your Song mare looks forgotten by punters in her campaign kickoff.
The six-year-old from Scone went back-to-back last prep including her eye-catching upset at 40/1 in the Group 3 Dark Jewel Classic (1400m) on her home track.
She’s got good six-furlong form (11:3-3-1) and has won here at Randwick in the big city before so can handle the noise of The Everest Day crowd.
Her lead-up trial at the track was only fair, but she’s a noted first-up performer with jockey Christian Reith who knows her well in the saddle.
Won two back with 62kg at Dubbo so don’t think her 58kg allocation this weekend will worry her too much.
Will settle at towards the tail and if they go too hard too fast up front she’s got the class to swoop and sneak into the placings at a price.
Caulfield Race 6 (3:10PM AEDT) – Group 2 $300,000 Herald Sun Sprint (1000M)
No. 6 Geegees Mistruth ($31 at time of publish)
GEEGEES MISTRUTH (3) has been completely left alone by punters for her second-up run after she failed to impress running second last behind Magic Time in the Group 3 Cockram Stakes (1200m) here at Caulfield on August 30.
With 58kg she ran seven lengths off the winner who lines-up in Saturday’s Everest field, but she drops notably in both distance and weight putting her back in the frame for atonement in this Group 2 speed affair.
The Tassie expat is currently with Mark Walker and she’s a multiple Group 3 winner in the Apple Isle so has ability when at her best.
The drop back to 1000m is new for her but I actually think she’ll be sharp enough to handle it.
Gun barrier three draw, her second-up record is solid, and she’ll appreciate the Good rated track.
Needs to kick it up a notch to stay with them but for the price I’ll be throwing her into my exotics.
Randwick Race 6 (3:25PM AEDT) – Group 3 $2 million Sydney Stakes (1200m)
No. 7 With Your Blessing ($12 at time of publish)
WITH YOUR BLESSING (10) is a last start winner in Saturday’s The Everest consolation race and appeals at the price to go back-to-back.
John Thompson’s Kiwi-bred Vadamos seven-year-old has form around some very good horses this prep and lands himself in a winnable edition of the six-furlong showdown.
He ran in the money behind Lazzura (2nd in the Group 3 Show County) and Pericles (3rd in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes) – both times at juicy odds.
He franked that form at his latest over 1400m here winning the Group 3 Bill Ritchie with 55.5kg.
Sticks at his pet track (15:4-3-4) and comes back in distance.
Does rise in weight now and is drawn wide for jockey Alysha Collett but is confident, brings in strong form lines, and is fit enough to outrun a few of these.
Will try to cross and lead and can go all-the-way or at least hold for a place.
Won’t go down quietly.
Randwick Race 7 (4:15PM AEDT) – Group 1 $20 million The Everest (1200M)
No. 2 Briasa ($14 at time of publish)
BRIASA (10) is the smoky I’m happy to throw into the mix for The Everest.
The flashy grey from Team Hawkes comes in flying, fresh off a sharp win in the Group 2 Premiere Stakes at Randwick where he beat Jimmysstar in slick time.
He’s a 1200m specialist with six wins from seven at the trip, and he’s already a dual Randwick champ after earlier nabbing the Group 1 TJ Smith in the autumn.
He was only a length off Joliestar in The Shorts too, so the form lines stack up.
Tyler Schiller sticks, and while gate 10 isn’t ideal, he’s fit third-up and has beaten most of these before — not Ka Ying, but the team’s confident he’ll give the favourite a scare.
At the price, he’s a cracking Each-Way play with still a few unknowns around the heavily backed visitor.
Caulfield Race 9 (5:15PM AEDT) – Group 1 $5 million Caulfield Cup (2400M)
No. 2 Presage Nocturne ($35 at time of publish)
For mine a roughie with real upside in the Caulfield Cup is PRESAGE NOCTURNE (8) who is worth a go to run in the money at a big price.
The smart French grey from Alessandro Botti’s yard gives off serious Americain vibes — he’s a proven stayer with wins up to 3000m and two runner-up efforts over the mile and a half.
He comes through the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay, a race that’s produced plenty of spring form down here and was only a quarter length off Double Major carrying 59kg.
Drops to 57.5kg on Saturday, has regular rider Stephane Pasquier making the trip, and while he might be even better over two miles, the 2400m off a 55-day freshen should suit just fine.
Boasts elite pedigree, top-shelf class overseas, and the eye-catching form lines to run a much better race from midfield than the price suggests – I won’t be surprised if he’s charging late.
Randwick Race 9 (5:35PM AEDT) – Group 1 $5 million King Charles III Stakes (1600m)
No. 12 Within The Law ($20 at time of publish)
Look, this is the race of the day class-wise for mine and pretty much anything could win.
I’m on Mr B, but the forgotten lightweight that is out to prove herself here is WITHIN THE LAW (6).
Queries whether she’s ready to tackle a field of this caliber at WFA just yet but after her strong run in the Group 1 Flight Stakes for second to the very good filly and Saturday’s Thousand Guineas favourite further south, Apocalyptic, at this course and distance last start I’m happy to throw a few dollars her way.
Bjorn Baker’s Lucky Vega filly is actually a two-time Group 1 runner-up over the Randwick mile having been narrowly denied in the autumn’s Champagne Stakes by Nepotism.
This is tougher than what she’s seen all prep having come via four Princess Series races, but she will be absolutely airborne down from 56kg to 48kg.
Can surprise a few.
Good luck punters!