Hendo’s latest Saturday roughies are live chances at juicy odds, with each outsider offering the sort of value punters look for heading into the weekend!
There’s not a lot of feature racing this weekend with a bit of a lull before the spring carnival ramps the action back up but we’ve still found plenty of roughie tips to tie you over before the majors!
From Caulfield’s Group 3 Monash Stakes to a few each way smokies up in Sydney, let’s hope we can deliver those big return plays for our readers.
Ladbrokes Value Whisperer, Lucy Henderson, has again locked onto a new batch of Saturday roughies that shape as genuine overs. Her July 11 best value bets can be found below.
What are the Best Value Outsiders for July 11?
- No. 7 Murphilly – Randwick Race 3
- No. 11 Diamond Show – Doomben Race 2
- No. 2 Davida – Caulfield Race 3
- No. 10 The Iron Star – Randwick Race 5
- No. 2 Immortality – Doomben Race 5
- No. 8 Galpin – Doomben Race 6
- No. 1 Recommendation – Caulfield Race 7
Best Roughie Tips for Saturday Racing
Randwick Race 3 – $120,000 Midway Handicap (1600m)
No. 7 Murphilly
The rails-drawn MURPHILLY (1) looks a terrific each way play early on the Randwick card paying $10 for the win at time of publish.
Kylie Gavenlock’s Gosford-trained daughter of Churchill is in top form ahead of her first Randwick assignment having won two of her past three around the NSW tracks before heading to the big smoke this weekend.
The bonny four-year-old was in a BM64 against her own kind last time out on June 18 at home and was far too good for her rivals over the mile on a Heavy (8) course saluting by an easy two lengths even with 60kg on her back.
Up in grade here and taking on the boys but remains a huge chance for mine right down in the weights to 55kg with regular rider Grant Buckley sticking with.
Always love myself a mare going this well at double-figures, she was favourite last time and saluted impressively so happy to give her a go at this level.
Drawn to get the right run again. Don’t overlook.
|
7. Murphilly (1)
J: Grant Buckley 55kg
4×141T: Kylie Gavenlock
|
|||
| Form hard to fault. Most recently favourite; won by 2 len at Gosford F&M Bm64 June 18 over 1600m in heavy going defeating Diamond Model carrying 60kg at $3.10. The start before that 4th of 11 at Newcastle Prov Bm68 on June 6 over 1600m, slow going 2.5 len behind Piccaderro carrying 56kg at $5. Going well enough to cope with this tougher assignment. | |||
Doomben Race 2 – $75,000 Country Music Raceday on Sale Now Hcp (70) (1600m)
No. 11 Diamond Show
Four-year-old Almanzor mare DIAMOND SHOW (14) lines up in the second at Doomben as a genuine Top 3 hope for the Munce boys.
Saturday marks just her second time at the track but her mile record is solid (7:2-1-0) and she should appreciate getting up to her pet trip at this stage of her prep.
Having just her third start since moving from the care of Brad Widdup, she looks on the up-and-up and I think she’s been overlooked third-up and fit having hit the line well in her two most recent runs.
Fresh on June 17 here she was two lengths fourth over 1350m from a wide gate before an improved second last start at Eagle Farm in a Class 3 over 1400m.
Sticks on the 53kg thanks to the apprentice claim of Courtney Bellamy and just needs luck from the barrier.
Will be taken back but should relish the extra furlong and gets every chance to be there when it counts.
|
11. Diamond Show (14)
J: Courtney Bellamy 56kg
87×42T: Chris & Corey Munce
|
|||
| Third-up today and won third-up previously. Resuming 4th of 14 at this track Bm65 on June 17 over 1350m, on a slow track; 2 len behind Damehood with 55.5kg at $12. Second-up 2nd of 9 at Eagle Farm Cl3 on July 1 over 1400m, on a slow track; 2.25 len behind Moonan Quartz carrying 53kg at $7. Just needs luck from a bad gate to be one of the main contenders. | |||
Caulfield Race 3 – $150,000 Sportsbet Jockey Watch Handicap (1400m)
No. 2 Davida
Danny O’Brien saddles-up DAVIDA (12) in this handicap clash at Caulfield and as a last start winner with weight relief coming her way I believe she can outrun her price and even win.
Logan Bates comes aboard this beautifully bred Bivouac filly who will appreciate the claim bringing her back down to a nice 52kg light weight.
It’s a massive drop from the 58.5kg she lumped to victory over 1300m at Morphettville Parks on June 27 over the 1300 where she was also drawn wide out before leading from barrier to box.
Don’t think the gate will be an issue here; she put a runaway 2.32 winning margin on Undisputable on a Soft (6) that day and only improves up to seven furlongs now.
A gun at the distance in the past with two wins from four 1400m starts, she’s Group 2 performed with form around the likes of multiple Group 1 winner Observer and has upside.
Bates will likely cross and sit on pace for this and if he can, watch out!
|
2. Davida (12)
J: Logan Bates 55.5kg
10×01T: Danny O’brien
|
|||
| Third-up today and won third-up in the past. First-up raced on the speed throughout before fading 10th of 12 at Sandown-Hillside 3yo F Bm70 on June 13 over 1200m, on a slow track; 10 len behind Afterberna carrying 59.5kg at $16. Second run from a spell won by 2.25 len at Morphettville Parks 3yo Bm66 June 27 over 1300m on a soft track defeating Undisputable with 58.5kg at $10. Too strong latest and can take catching again. | |||
Randwick Race 5 – $160,000 Asahi Super Dry Handicap (1800m)
No. 10 The Iron Star
THE IRON STAR (3) is one of three last start winners in this compact handicap field and I’m sceptical to overlook the Marc Chevalier-trained lightweight.
A four-year-old son of Stratum Star, this marks his first trip to Randwick, but he sticks to the 1800m that saw him post just his second career start at Hawkesbury on June 23.
There in a Class 1 at set weights he carted 59kg to a three-quarter length upset over Portsmouth, and I think he can go on with the job now coming right down to just 53kg.
Tyler Schiller knows him well and sticks in the saddle, he’s a gelding on the improve and is deserving of a shot in the big city races.
Overcame a wide alley to salute last time out, draws more favourably here, blinkers go on and I’ll be cheering for him the closing stages when he comes for them.
|
10. The Iron Star (3)
J: Tyler Schiller 53kg
15251T: Marc Chevalier
|
|||
| Most recently settled well back; won by 0.7 len at Hawkesbury Cl1-Sw June 23 over 1800m on a soft track defeating Portsmouth carrying 59kg at $7.50. Before that got back early 5th of 9 at Canterbury Bm64 on May 27 over 1900m, on rain affected going; 1.75 len behind Velaris with 57.5kg at $9. Can play a big role again at the good each way price. | |||
Doomben Race 5 – $75,000 Ladbrokes Odds Surge Class 3 Plate (1110m)
No. 2 Immortality
Stephen & Jordon Lee’s consistent son of I Am Invincible, IMMORTALITY (7) has a strong record fresh and is a dual placegetter from three previous runs at the distance.
Was hitting plenty of high notes around this level last prep with a string of top three placings over his summer / autumn campaign and looks every hope to continue that here.
Races for the first time since a brave third behind She’s Exotic at Grafton in a BM82, is a short-distance specialist and gets some weight relief with Jasper Franklin coming in as a late ride.
Will be off pace and needs to dig deep but at the distance resuming can’t be forgotten.
|
2. Immortality (7)
J: Jasper Franklin 60kg
2233xT: Stephen & Jordan Lee
|
|||
| First-up. Finished off last preparation third of 9 at Grafton Brushgrovebm82 April 19 over 1175m, 2.25 len behind She’s Exotic carrying 55kg at $7.50. Previous preparation first-up won by nose Ballina Cl3 Bm66 January 9 over 1015m defeating Eagle’s Fire with 58.5kg at $19. Not out of the equation. | |||
Doomben Race 6 – $85,000 Mekka Raceday on Sale Now Class 6 Plate (1110m )
No. 8 Galpin
GALPIN (2) chases a hat-trick in this Class 6 sprint in Brisbane, and I’ve got every confidence she can give some of the better fancied a run for their money fourth-up and flying.
This five-year-old daughter of Sioux Nation comes off back-to-back wins including her latest at a value starting price here at the same track and trip she sticks to on Saturday.
Kyle Wilson-Taylor piloted her for a one-length victory over Hey Daisy on 58kg where she was doing her best work late, and while the mare now takes on the boys after defeating all-female company there, she’s given the benefit of a drop back to 55kg.
Has a good gate but will likely go back, blinkers go on and ticks a few boxes to shock.
|
8. Galpin (2)
J: Kyle Wilson-Taylor 55kg
6×911T: Phil Bobic
|
|||
| Dual acceptor. Last start came home strongly from last on the turn and won by 0.9 len at this track F&M Cl3 June 24 over 1110m on a soft track defeating Hey Daisy carrying 58kg at $9.50. Before that won by 2.5 len at Warwick Hcp June 13 over 1200m in the wet defeating Hasten Delight carrying 55kg at $4.80. Hard to ignore with the help of a nice gate. | |||
Caulfield Race 7 – Group 3 $200,000 Sir John Monash Stakes (1100m)
No. 1 Recommendation
One of the most wide-open editions of the weekend and the Ciaron Maher-trained RECOMMENDATION (11) looks one of the place betting plays of the day.
It’s been an age between drinks for the Shalaa gelding who hasn’t visited the winner’s stall since his Group 3 The Heath 1100 win back in August of 2024, but that’s not to say he can’t be there in the top three at a price.
While winless in nearly 2 years, he’s been far from disgraced nearly every time he steps out including his two runs this prep.
Fresh here at Caulfield on May 30 he was fourth in the Listed Bel Esprit on a rain-affected track, and the form out of that has been pretty strong.
Improved in a Flemington Handicap on June 20 when narrowly denied by De Bergerace over the 1100m.
Sticks to the short distance, is third-up and fit, has proven form at Caulfield and will get through any going.
Blinkers go on to keep him sharp, from the wide alley I think he’ll cross and be right on pace and hold on for another run in the money.
|
1. Recommendation (11)
J: Thomas Stockdale 58.5kg
x3642T: Ciaron Maher
|
|||
| Recent form sound. Most recently ran on from midfield; 2nd of 12 at Flemington Hcp on June 20 over 1100m, slow going long-neck behind De Bergerac carrying 58kg at $15. The race before that 4th of 11 at this track in the LR Bel Esprit on May 30 over 1100m, in the wet; 3 len behind Hearcomesthestar with 58.5kg at $7. Not far away of late. Consistent and should be thereabouts again. | |||
Happy punting!
Roughie Bets FAQs
What are Saturday roughies?
Saturday roughies are long‑priced runners that offer value at big odds. They’re horses whose form, map or setup suggests they can outperform their market price.
How does Hendo pick her Saturday roughies?
Hendo focuses on hidden form, favourable race maps, strong sectionals and runners dropping in grade or finding better conditions. These factors help identify outsiders with genuine upside.
Why do punters chase roughies on Saturdays?
Saturday racing features deeper fields and bigger pools, creating more opportunities for value. Roughies can deliver strong returns for punters looking beyond the favourites.
What makes a good roughie bet?
A strong roughie usually has one or more positive indicators: a good map, a class drop, strong late sectionals, a favourable track pattern or a proven record at the distance.
Should roughies be used in multis?
Roughies can boost multi payouts, but they’re best used sparingly. Many punters include one value runner alongside safer legs to balance risk and reward.
Do roughies win often?
Roughies don’t win frequently, but they win often enough to provide strong value when the profile is right. Saturdays, with larger fields and competitive racing, are prime for upsets.
Where can I find more Saturday roughie tips?
Ladbrokes publishes weekly roughie insights through Hendo’s Hopefuls, plus additional value plays across major metro meetings.