It feels like there has not really been an offseason for football fans following the final day conclusion of the 2023-2024 Premier League title race.
There was the Champions League Final which ran straight into Euro preparations which then flowed right into these preseason tours where the stars are taken through the car wash in all corners of the globe.
Before you know it, the calendar will read August 17 and we will be all set for the nine month, 380 game marathon to crown the champion club in England.
Will it be Manchester City again, or perhaps Arsenal can finally break through and lift the trophy for the first time in 21 years.
Perhaps the managerial changes at Chelsea or Liverpool will see those clubs challenge for silverware, maybe Manchester United will be rewarded for sticking with Erik ten Haag and Tottenham will… actually let’s not go crazy here, even with Ange at the helm they are still Spurs.
Aston Villa will be eager to build on their remarkable finish last season while Newcastle and others are going to be targeting a top four finish.
There are storylines aplenty as we approach the commencement of the 33rd season of Premier League football.
Outright
Just two points separated Manchester City and Arsenal in the final standings and the big question for many punters heading into the new campaign is whether or not Arsenal have done enough to close that gap.
Unfortunately for the Gunners, trying to go from a club record haul of 89 points to 91 (or more) is like trying to add another 10kph onto the top speed of a Bugatti.
That’s not to say they won’t push City all the way once more, but unless they can find a way to add some more firepower up front, it will be another party for Pep and company in May.
It is unlikely that City will drop points in 10 games again this season and they should land in the mid-90’s in terms of points, which will be tough for Arsenal to match.
However the perceived closeness of the potential title race does mean that for the first time in years, City is over even money to win the league.
Granted $2.50 is not a huge price but they are probably closer to a 50-50 shot than the market would suggest.
Manchester City to Win the League @ $2.50
Straight Forecast: 1st Man City 2nd Arsenal @ $4.33
Top 4 Finish
Liverpool finished nine points adrift of the title last season, however the departure of Jurgen Klopp is likely to see them take a step back.
Arne Slot is a capable manager but expecting him to come in and not experience some growing pains in the job is some incredibly optimistic thinking.
However they still have a squad capable of finishing in the top four, but seeing them in the low to mid 70’s in terms of points is not out of the question and at $1.57 to make the top four, the value isn’t there.
Aston Villa’s squad that surprised everyone last season has remained largely intact which should help their ability to remain competitive but when you factor in Champions League duty as well and there is a case to be made for them to drop out as well.
While the $4.00 on offer is appealing, any drop off combined with improvement from the chasing pack leaves them quite vulnerable.
Realistically it is going to be one of Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs or United taking that fourth Champions League place.
Chelsea should be the easy choice, but the bizarre move to swap out Mauricio Pochettino who helped this side end last season on a tear for Enzo Maresca suggests they, like Liverpool will have to overcome a slow start as they adjust to live under the Italian.
The trajectory of Ange Postecoglou’s managerial career suggests that he should get some improvement out of the Spurs squad this coming season.
However it says a lot that the highlight of their season was watching Arsenal finish second and given the inconsistency of the performances, there is always a bit of trepidation.
But at their current price backing them is worth a punt.
The same can be said for Manchester United, who surprisingly retained their manager and could capitalise on that stability early in the season while others are finding their feet.
Tottenham to Finish Top 4 @ $3.00
Manchester United to Finish Top 4 @ $3.00
Top 6 Finish
While there is a reasonable expectation that Aston Villa will take a step or two back in this coming season, it might not be as big as what Newcastle did over the last 12 months.
As long as they are able to keep the core of that squad healthy they are going to be in the mix for a top four spot again but the value for the Villains is on the top six.
Aston Villa to Finish Top 6 @ $2.20
Top Half Finish
One of the stories of the second half of the 2023-2024 season was the marked improvement of Crystal Palace who took 19 of a possible 21 points on the run home to steal tenth place on the final day.
While that rate is highly unlikely to be sustained over the course of a season, getting something close to that should get them on track to finish in the top half of the table once more.
Losing Micheal Olise to Bayern Munich is going to hurt but they do have enough quality in that squad still.
As for Wolves, they are coming off their best goalscoring season since 2019-2020 when they finished seventh and look primed for a run to the top.
It is a bit of a surprise to see them below the likes of Fulham, Brentford and Everton in this market and at their price appears to be way too high as it stands.
It’s one I’m happy to take even if it does not necessarily match my predicted ladder.
Crystal Palace Top 10 @ $2.00
Wolves Top 10 @ $4.33
Relegation
Such is the nature of the Premier League that promoted teams will have their work cut out for them trying to overtake teams that know how to survive a relegation scrap.
However, Southampton and Leicester were both very recently in the top flight, but I don’t love the Saints chances of staying in this division.
They needed the promotion playoffs to come up and their transfer business at the time of publish does not exactly inspire confidence.
Both Leicester and Ipswich have the quality in their squads to earn enough points against their fellow battlers to stick around.
From a value perspective, Forest to go down might be the best bet of the preseason with their squad looking a bit light on and a few players who have boom or bust qualities.
For the third and final relegated team, I’m going to go a bit big here and back Bournemouth to drop down.
While they could still do some more business to shore up their squad, it does seem like they are destined to take a step back and that could have them battling all season long.
Southampton to be Relegated @ $2.20
Nottingham Forest to be Relegated @ $3.00
Bournemouth to be Relegated @ $8.00
Top Goalscorer
Chances are Erling Haaland is going to win this race in a canter, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a couple of value bets just for some fun.
Newcastle is going to score a lot of goals this season (sometimes through necessity) and their main man will be Alexander Isak.
The Swedish striker netted 21 goals last season, a massive improvement from his 22-23 campaign.
Then there is Ollie Watkins, who will no doubt be motivated following a Euros campaign where he perhaps felt a bit frustrated to be left on the sidelines for a struggling Harry Kane.
He has scored double digit goals in his last four Premier League seasons and his injury record suggests he is going to be available for the majority of the campaign.
If Villa go well once again, Watkins will once again be pushing 20 goals if not topping it.
Alexander Isak @ $15.00
Ollie Watkins @ $17.00
Predicted Ladder
1 – Manchester City
2 – Arsenal
3 – Manchester United
4 – Liverpool
5 – Tottenham
6 – Aston Villa
7 – Chelsea
8 – Newcastle
9 – West Ham
10 – Crystal Palace
11 – Brighton
12 – Wolves
13 – Everton
14 – Fulham
15 – Brentford
16 – Leicester
17 – Ipswich
18 – Southampton
19 – Bournemouth
20 – Nottingham Forest