The first G1 of the Sydney Spring Racing Carnival will be run and won at Randwick on Saturday with a top-class field of resuming middle-distance horses and stayers stepping out in the Winx Stakes.
Fangirl is back to defend her 2023 crown and has been installed as the early favourite for the race.
Along with Fangirl, champion trainer Chris Waller will put the saddle on half the field as he strives to win the race that is named in honour of his mighty mare for an eighth time.
The field is overflowing with G1 winners with no fewer than eight horses in the race who have tasted success at the top level.
So, who will win?
We’ll try to answer that question in our comprehensive analysis of every runner in the 2024 Winx Stakes below. (Prices current at time of writing)
1. Buckeroo (8)
Price: $61.00
The first of Chris Waller’s runners has been gelded ahead of this preparation and the procedure looks to have had the desired effect given his two tidy trials.
However, this looks a bit sharp for the son of Fastnet Rock first-up and he’s one to keep an eye on later in the spring over further and probably a tier or two down from this.
2. Detonator Jack (2)
Price: $15.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained gelding resumes here on the back of two trials with the most recent producing a very nice piece of work to win.
The son of Jakkalberry races well fresh having won two of four resumptions and gave a good account of himself first-up last preparation when finishing 0.6L third in the G2 Ajax Stakes.
While he maps to get a great run for Jason Collett, he is yet to win a black-type race and looks tested at weight-for-age.
3. Zeyrek (3)
Price: $101.00
The eight-year-old gelding is the rank outsider of the field and it’s hard to argue given he has finished at the tail of the field in his past four G1 races.
Much like Buckeroo, the Team Hawkes-trained son of Sea The Stars is a horse better suited over longer journeys later in the Carnival.
4. Just Fine (4)
Price: $26.00
The Waterhouse & Bott-trained gelding returns to the races for the first time since failing to come up during the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival.
The former import showed his true ability last spring in his first Australian preparation by winning his first three races.
He kicked his 2023 spring campaign off with an impressive 2.8 length win over a mile here before winning the G3 Kingston Town Stakes and G1 The Metropolitan.
Two trials leading into this first-up assignment will have him in good condition, but I’d suggest he’ll still need the run and will better next start over further.
5. Riff Rocket (12)
Price: $9.50
The four-year-old gelding is the exciting new entrant to weight-for-age racing and the one that could knock off his more fancied stablemate.
Chris Waller has Caulfield Cup aspirations for this guy and what’s not to say he can’t emulate another star that was trained by Waller, Verry Elleegant, who won this race in 2020 before going on to win that year’s Caulfield Cup.
The son of American Pharoah took all before him last preparation winning the G3 CS Hayes Stakes over this distance first-up before claiming the G1 Rosehill Guineas and Australian Derby.
He’s undefeated in three first-up races and has warmed up with two classic Waller trials where he has settled near the tail and worked home beautifully.
If Nash Rawiller has some luck from the outside barrier, he’ll be fighting out the finish.
6. Fangirl (9)
Price: $2.25
The star Chris Waller-trained mare returns in 2024 looking to win back-to-back Winx Stakes titles.
Last year she produced a booming finish to salute and start a spring campaign that would also see her impressively put Mr Brightside to the sword in the G1 King Charles III Stakes by nearly 2.8 lengths.
The daughter of Sebring loves this distance and is a proven first-up performer having won this race last year and also the G2 Apollo Stakes to begin last preparation.
She’s had two pleasing trials leading into this and James McDonald could not have had a bigger grip on her in the most recent.
‘J Mac’ has built a tremendous relationship with the mare, winning five of seven races aboard her.
She looks set for another big spring and a win here looks hers for the taking.
7. Via Sistina (7)
Price: $6.00
The imported mare created quite the impression in her first Australian preparation with Chris Waller.
Her first assignment was the G1 Ranvet Stakes over 2000m where she rounded them up easily before racing away for a 1.7 length win.
The daughter of Fastnet Rock then finished 6.5 lengths second in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes famously won by the bold frontrunner Pride Of Jenni.
There is no doubting her class so she’s a definite top three chance, but I’d suggest she may find the 1400m a touch sharp and she’ll be better over further.
8. Atishu (11)
Price: $21.00
The Chris Waller-trained Savabeel mare returns to the races for the first time after finishing an agonising nose second in the G1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes.
She’s a two-time G1 winner and is undefeated in two starts over this course and distance.
Waller has suggested that she’s carrying a bit of condition and will need the run so I’m happy to watch her with an eye for races later in the Carnival.
9. Zougotcha (6)
Price: $8.50
The sixth and final runner from the Waller yard resumes here after going through the autumn undefeated.
Last preparation the Zoustar mare won the G2 Millie Fox Stakes first-up over 1300m before taking out the G1 Coolmore Classic and Queen Of The Turf Stakes.
She’s a proven fresh performer having won three of five first-up races.
She always gives herself a chance with her racing style and the speed map suggests Tommy Berry will be able to settle in the first few pairs.
Is she good enough to beat her more fancied stablemate? Time will tell but she looks well placed to show her best.
10. Semana (5)
Price: $13.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained mare has had a short let-up since finishing a length second in the G1 Tattersall’s Tiara.
Last preparation the daughter of Winning Rupert got within a head of Zougotcha in the Coolmore Classic before finishing 1.3 lengths third to that mare in the Queen Of The Turf Stakes.
She owns a great record over this distance, having finished in the top two in all bar one of eight starts.
A recent trial where she brained her rivals by four lengths while under a hold will have her in good fettle heading into this race, but I’m just not totally sold on her as a weight-for-age horse at this stage.
11. Tropical Squall (11)
Price: $9.00
The Waterhouse & Bott-trained four-year-old mare will give a bold sight if she can get an uncontested lead as the speed map suggests.
The dual G1 winner flies fresh having won all three of her first-up races including last preparation when she defeated subsequent G1 Stradbroke Handicap winner Stefi Magnetica in the Surround Stakes.
She’s warmed up for this with two trial wins, but I think Riff Rocket and Via Sistina were doing it easier than her in the most recent.
Zougotcha has had her measure in their past two meetings, and I don’t think she can turn the tables here, so she needs to lift.
12. Zardozi (1)
Price: $31.00
The Godolphin mare resumes here and besides a win on debut, she’s done very little in her first-up races.
While she won the G2 Phar Lap Stakes over 1500m last preparation, this feels too short for her, but it is a nice starting point for longer races later in the Carnival.
The Judgement
It’s hard to go past Fangirl with her A1 credentials.
The three-time G1 winner kicked off last year’s spring campaign with a strong win in this race and this year’s edition looks no harder.
She’s a proven fresh performer and I loved that James McDonald was doing his best to hold her up in her trial, yet she still powered to the line.
She’s looking in super shape and can go back-to-back.
I don’t normally do it but, I’m making this a two-bet race and having something on Riff Rocket each way.
He’s the new kid on the weight-for-age block and has taken it all before him as a three-year-old.
He’s unbeaten fresh and his trials leading into this were super.
Selections:
1st – Fangirl
2nd – Riff Rocket
3rd – Zougotcha
4th – Via Sistina