Roughie hunters, Randwick, Saturday – we’ve got the goods below for The Championships Day 2’s best value bets!
Our roughie tips had terrific luck in Sydney last week.
While we had a miss on the Doncaster, we managed to uncover a juicy Place runner with Headwall 3rd in the TJ Smith Stakes, Vinrock won the Inglis Sires’ as per our predictions, while in the ATC Derby we had the eventual third placed Shanwah Each Way and Firm Agreement as our blowout Place tip running a huge second at any old price!
Will we be able to repeat the same riches in the four Sydney Group 1 races this weekend?
If you’re feeling like your wallet’s a bit lighter than a jockey after weigh-in, Lucy Henderson drops her Saturday roughie tips below that could turn your weekend from “blah” to “booyah!” and have you cheering all-the-way like Pride Of Jenni in last year’s Queen Elizabeth!
Randwick Race 6 (2:40pm) – Group 1 $1 million Australian Oaks (2400m)
VALUE: 1. LEICA LUCY ($4.20 at time of publish)
NZ Oaks winner Leica Lucy looks a value bet in the ATC Oaks this weekend. Photo: Race Images NZ.
Treasurethe Moment is a deserving favourite in the ATC Oaks at Randwick having made a mess of them in the Vinery to make it seven on the trot. The value however looks to lie in the Chris Waller trained Kiwi visitor with Leica Lucy making her Australian race debut after dominating the fillies’ scene across the Tasman.
She looks a great each way bet chasing a potential upset, and she too is looking to extend a lovely picket fence of wins. The daughter of Derryn has won five straight and can definitely test the favourite here over the mile and a half.
Oozing class, she is proven at the 2400m coming off a narrow but convincing Group 1 NZ Oaks win at Trentham on March 22. The New Zealand fillies have a strong recent record in this Sydney event including Pennyweka who did the NZ Oaks – ATC Oaks double back in 2023.
There’s plenty to suggest this filly might just do the same especially after drawing a treat in gate one.
Benefits greatly from the booking of star hoop James McDonald. Watch for her late!
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 3. DUBAI GOLDRUSH ($15 at time of publish)
If I’m going to back that NZ Oaks form, then surely this placegetter looks forgotten in Australian Oaks betting at $15? Dubai Goldrush hails from the Matamata stables of Pam Gerard and is another looking to upset the locals here.
She went around at 25/1 in the Group 2 Lowland Stakes (2100m) when third to Leica Lucy before going one better with her NZ Oaks second only a half-length beaten relishing the trip.
Mark Zahra comes aboard from a mid-field gate eight draw this weekend, and I really like that she’s got that 2400m run under the belt now.
The daughter of Pride Of Dubai presents in peak order, improving each time out and ready to run a huge race again. She’ll be thereabouts.
Place.
Randwick Race 7 (3:15pm) – Group 1 $2 million Sydney Cup (3200m)
VALUE: 1. DUKE DE SESSA ($10 at time of publish)
Caulfield Cup winner Duke De Sessa looks lovely value even with top weight in Saturday’s Sydney Cup field. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Three-time winning Sydney Cup horseman Ciaron Maher looks to have a nice value play in this year’s Randwick staying feature with his Caulfield Cup winner from the spring, Duke De Sessa, out to double figures to hand the stable back-to-back victories.
He jumps from gate two carrying the 56.5kg topweight so needs to be good, but he’s a proven Group 1 winner and has the class.
History is against him as no Sydney Cup winner has carried more than 55kg to victory since Mourayan (58kg back in 2013) but I believe this six-year-old son of Lope De Vega might come close.
The airborne Harry Coffey sticks aboard the fit galloper who surprised a few resuming to take out the Group 3 JRA Plate (1600m) at Caulfield carting 60kg at the start of February.
His two subsequent runs have also been strong with Duke De Sessa enjoying two second placings in some high-class events. At Flemington he had 59.5kg when 0.3 lengths away in the Australian Cup Prelude before contesting the Group 1 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill with 59kg.
Those are some nice form lines to follow into the two-mile classic now and he could just be ready to win again here up in distance.
Maps beautifully and has been forgotten in the markets.
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 13. MOSTLY CLOUDY ($41 at time of publish)
For an absolute blowout result in this year’s Sydney Cup, Mostly Cloudy is a dour stayer that has the credentials to shock.
There was a bit of hype around Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young’s Harzand gelding during the spring with the six-year-old import in the Melbourne Cup. Jockey Karis Teetan had the horse in a lovely position from jump but Mostly Cloudy just lacked the class running 11 lengths back 18th in the ‘Race That Stops a Nation’.
Has been going better in easier company this time in with three straight top three runs leading up to his Group 1 return.
At his latest in the Listed Roy Higgins (2600m) at Flemington he was third to Deakin with 56kg making up ground from a midfield position.
One that will appreciate the 3200m now (4:1-1-0) as a proven two-miler getting in on just 50kg.
For the stat backers, if the emergencies all come out, he’ll jump from gate 8 which has produced the most Sydney Cup winners (since 1983) with 10.
Place.
Randwick Race 8 (3:55pm) – Group 1 $5 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m)
VALUE: 3. LIGHT INFANTRY MAN ($16 at time of publish)
Light Infantry Man brings some strong interstate form into the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
No doubting Via Sistina will likely come out and win at her odds-on quote to equal Winx’s record of seven Group 1 wins in a single season, but who’s brave enough to bet against the mighty mare at Randwick this weekend?
If you’re feeling a bit gutsy and want to take her on there is huge value to be found in this year’s Queen Elizabeth field including Light Infantry Man who comes to Sydney off some outstanding race performances down south.
Ciaron Maher won the race with Pride Of Jenni by the runaway margin over Via Sistina last year, and he might have a sneaky each way chance with this French bred Fast Company gelding 12 months on.
The flying six-year-old ran a second-up third only 1.3 lengths off Tom Kitten in the All-Star Mile at Flemington two back before improving over further to claim an elite level win in the Group 1 Australian Cup (2000m).
He had an easy two lengths to spare over Deny Knowledge on the line with last year’s Melbourne Cup fourth placegetter Zardozi third in a hot race.
Adding that to his Group 1 Northerly Stakes (1800m) win in WA from the summer, his CV is glowing now as he prepares for the big one in Sydney on the weekend.
Ethan Brown stays on and he and Maher are enjoying a stellar season as is this in-form roughie who I’ll be keeping safe!
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 8. LINDERMANN ($41 at time of publish)
Many a times I’ve cleaned up backing a roughie stablemate from the Waller contingent in a race where the master trainer saddles-up a hot favourite. With that in mind, Lindermann has jumped out at his ridiculous price here at 40/1 in the Queen Elizabeth.
Those type of odds are usually reserved for second-tier contenders but this consistent son of Lonhro is a proven Group 1 winner over this distance going great guns all campaign.
The now five-year-old hit soaring heights as a younger galloper winning the Rosehill Guineas in 2023. He may have only won two subsequent races, but his top three strike-rate is strong and I’m happy to take him for a run in the money again.
He has had four runs this prep finishing top three in all of them so is rock hard fit now. Second-up he was narrowly beaten by Via Sistina when third in the Group 1 Verry Elleegant Stakes off a Group 2 Apollo second to another classy Waller mare in Fangirl.
Things went slightly askew when odds-on in the Group 3 Sky High only to run third to Vauban but put the writing on the wall when proving he could nearly keep up with the stable’s ace finishing second again to Via Sistina in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes at the same track and trip.
He’ll be tested with a bigger field and some intriguing interstate and international form lines to consider but still looks overs for mine.
Place.
VALUE: 6. GRINZINGER BELLE ($14 at time of publish)
Grinzinger Belle comes into the Queen Of The Turf Stakes off a big win at The Valley. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
I will definitely be on Fangirl for the win here but there’s value outside the short favourite just in case she doesn’t fire. One of those the punters seem to have abandoned for the final Group 1 on the card, despite her excellent winning lead-up, is Grinzinger Belle.
The Danny O’Brien trained Shamexpress four-year-old ran them ragged at The Valley to win the Group 2 Sunline Stakes by a slick 2.75 lengths over the mile second-up last start.
Obviously, the tight circuit worked in her favour and Randwick suits a different style, but the ease of the win was certainly impressive.
Fresh last September she was a runaway four length Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes winner, and was far from disgraced when five lengths back eighth to Atishu in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) at Flemington over the Melbourne Cup Carnival.
She is fit third-up on the weekend back up to elite level company.
This race is definitely a step up, but she’s got that “catch me if you can” vibe and could make things interesting up front.
This marks her first assignment outside of Victoria, but if she finds her Sydney leg okay, she has the class to lead and give them something to run down.
Each Way.
BLOWOUT: 9. OUR GOLD HOPE ($41 at time of publish)
We’ve seen a few big wins by some lovely greys of late and, while I don’t think this bonny four-year-old will be first past the post by any means, she ticks a few boxes for a top three run at huge odds.
Robert & Luke Price’s Lope De Vega mare from Kembla Grange finished a heartbreakingly close second as a filly in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks last year and is looking to recapture her best form coming to the end of another prep.
She has had five runs already and is in peak fitness now having caught the eye on April 1 when beaten a nostril flare running third with 53kg in the Group 2 Neville Sellwood (2000m) on a Heavy (8) behind a very good horse in Ceolwulf.
The run before she was eighth with just 51kg in the Group 1 Coolmore Classic (1500m) behind Lady Shenandoah.
It is interesting to see her back to a mile now and 57kg, but you’ve got to be in it to win it and think she might be capable of running a big race at Randwick before heading to the paddock.
Exotics.
Happy punting!