Chasing roughie tips for the Saturday racing at Randwick?
We’ve done the hard work for you and uncovered the best underrated horses to back at big odds in the four Group 1s on The Championships Day 1.
Punters are treated to a stellar day’s racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday April 5 as the Autumn Carnival hits fever pitch.
With plenty of turf stars on show and open fields in the majors, roughies could be set to shine like the sun that is finally coming out in time for the weekend!
Below Lucy Henderson goes through her top double-figure fancies to back with some standout each-way betting plays in Sydney to have you rolling in the green like Jack Nicklaus at The Masters!
Randwick Race 6 (3:20pm) – Group 1 $1 million Inglis Sires’ (1400m)
VALUE: 3. VINROCK ($4.60 at time of publish)
Vinrock looks lovely Each Way value in the 2025 Inglis Sires’. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Tricky 2YO race for the punters with the top trio tough to split especially considering track conditions.
Going out on a limb and Vinrock presents the value looking for a hat-trick to stay unbeaten come Saturday arvo.
Current favourite Wodeton, coming off his Golden Slipper second by a whisker, will no doubt take some beating, but this Matt Laurie trained I Am Invincible colt is no stranger to the winner’s circle.
The stable won Tuesday’s Vinery with a filly making her Sydney debut and this gun youngster can do something similar in another Group 1 on the weekend.
After a big debut victory at Pakenham carrying 58kg he rose notably in grade to claim Flemington’s Group 2 VRC Sires’ over this distance by an easy two lengths.
Ran the Sydney way fine in a recent trial finishing second here in a Randwick hit-out a few days ago.
Mark Zahra is riding in ace form right now and stays aboard, inside alley.
WIN.
BLOWOUT: 4. PRESTIGE FOREVER ($12 at time of publish)
Further down the Sires’ markets at $12 we have another last start winner in Prestige Forever.
He jumps from gate 10 of 10 but if the track is wet that could keep him in the safe zone.
A well-bred son of former Golden Rose / Caulfield Guineas double champ Ole Kirk, this colt comes from the Brideoake & Jenkins yard in Mornington so is also seeing the Sydney way of racing for the first time.
He was runner-up on debut at 20/1 at Headquarters in early March before absolutely blitzing them by nearly four lengths to win the Listed St Albans Stakes at The Valley with 58kg.
Will eat up the 1400m, gets more room here and Jamie Mott knows the horse well.
Down in the kilos, presents fit now with confidence and will be sharper with blinkers going on.
Handles Soft going, will be on pace and if he gets the run like he did last time out can give them something to chase down.
EACH WAY.
Randwick Race 7 (3:55pm) – Group 1 $3 million TJ Smith Stakes (1200m)
VALUE: 8. MAGIC TIME ($8.50 at time of publish)
Now is the time to back market mover Magic Time in the TJ Smith Stakes before she firms further! Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Another exciting edition pending for the TJ Smith with a host of value on offer including early market mover Magic Time, who is a tenacious mare to back now before she firms further!
Originally had her in the mix at $11 but she’s been smashed early by those in the know.
The Grahame Begg trained daughter of Hellbent is so versatile and handles Heavy going well.
Randwick is where she runs her best, and she’s carried plenty more weight in some tough races here over the past season.
When fresh she was firing to beat Iowna Merc home at the course and distance in the Group 2 Expressway Stakes before a brave third only a length beaten off a gutsy on-speed run in the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes (1300m) on March 8.
Back to the six furlongs, which she’s won four from seven over, and kept ticking over with a lovely trial win defeating the Newmarket Handicap winner Joliestar in an 850m hit-out here on March 28.
She’s got the class, and Joliestar is favourite for the TJ.
Third-up with previous winning form at this stage of a prep and gets the rails run.
Maps beautifully for her and she’s a definite danger.
EACH WAY.
BLOWOUT: 4. HEADWALL ($20 at time of publish)
Headwall looks a forgotten runner in this race for Matthew Smith and has the flying Zac Lloyd in the saddle from a favourable mid-field draw.
The Dream Ahead gelding has a terrific strike-rate overall (15-6:4:3) and really doesn’t know how to run a bad race.
Unbeaten on Heavy tracks, a dual runner-up at the distance from as many starts and has won his only other Randwick assignment to date.
Yet to win over further than 1000m so needs to be at his best against this field but he is so consistent and has more than held his own against the elite.
Only carried 52kg fresh when 2.35 lengths of Jimmysstar in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m).
Improved when finishing closer to Joliestar in the Newmarket at this distance down the Flemington straight with 52.5kg and improves again heading north third-up to take on his two last start conquerors.
The Newmarket Handicap has produced more TJ Smith Stakes winners than any other race in the past decade, which bodes well statistically for him.
The weight is the query (58.5kg) at this level and WFA is a different beast but at the price worth taking for a place!
PLACE.
Randwick Race 8 (4:35pm) – Group 1 $4 million Doncaster Mile (1600m)
VALUE: 10. MOIRA ($16 at time of publish)
One of the most open Doncaster fields for a while and that opens things up for those looking outside the top few.
Waller has an outstanding record in the event and could be in with a genuine upset hope this year in the form of Moira.
Don’t worry about that wide draw, as 20 of the past 35 Doncaster winners jumped from a double-digit barrier.
This Canadian bred daughter of Ghostzapper is super consistent, ready to make an impact on debut down under, and we’ve seen Waller imports steal the show in the autumn features plenty.
Races for the first time since claiming the Group 1 Breeders Cup (2213m) at Del Mar in the States last November.
The mile first-up looks suitable, and jockey Zac Purton is flying.
Her first-up record is strong (4:2-2-0), has the Waller factor, and gets in well weight-wise carrying 54kg.
A rain-affected track is a concern with her best overseas being on Firm going, but she ticks a few other boxes.
If Purton gets her into the right spot and the sun stays out, she can surprise a few.
PLACE.
BLOWOUT: 17. IOWNA MERC ($46 at time of publish)
Iowna Merc is a blowout chance in the 2025 Doncaster Mile at a great price. Photo: Steve Hart.
The current price on Iowna Merc is 45/1 and I’m really happy to take a slice of that!
Bjorn Baker’s in-form Winning Rupert gelding is in on just 52kg and will be flying at the weight.
He loves Randwick (12:5-3-1) and, even though he’s yet to see a mile, he has winning form up to 1500m so the distance is a non-issue for mine.
Gets through Soft – Heavy going like a dream so you can tick that off too.
Coming off back-to-back wins in the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup (1300m) with 57kg and Rosehill’s Group 2 Ajax Stakes (1500m) with 57.5kg.
Had nothing to spare on the line last time out but was still eye-catching with those kilos boxing on well after racing on-speed.
It’s Somewhat (2017) was the last to do the Ajax / Doncaster double, and the price for this five-year-old to be the next is very attractive.
Baker and jockey Ashley Morgan have been enjoying plenty of success lately, and this horse is going his best yet.
EACH WAY.
Randwick Race 9 (5:15pm) – Group 1 $2 million ATC Australian Derby (2400m)
VALUE: 4. SHANWAH ($9 at time of publish)
Shanwah looks the value to upset the Saturday favourites in this year’s ATC Derby. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
The season’s top 3YO stayers do battle in the ATC Derby to finish up the Group 1 races on the card, and my best each-way play of the day is Shanwah.
I’m on the NZ Derby champ Willydoit for the win but think this airborne improver for two-time winning trainer Ciaron Maher can challenge.
He is a son of sire of the moment, Too Darn Hot, and has proved to be a summer-autumn sensation for the stable winning four on the trot leading up to Saturday’s feature.
He presents rock hard fit now and full of confidence coming off back-to-back Group 2 wins in Melbourne, the latest of which had him saluting by two lengths in Moonee Valley’s Alister Clark Stakes (2040m).
That form from The Valley has held up in Sydney’s Derby plenty of times in recent years.
Think he’ll run out the 2400m without concern and maps perfectly from gate four with Blake Shinn.
EACH WAY.
BLOWOUT: 7. FIRM AGREEMENT ($19 at time of publish)
There are a quite a few at huge Derby odds I’ll be taking in this race but the one I am most confident in a top three finish is Firm Agreement.
From the Neasham/Archibald yard, this progressive son of Yes Yes Yes from Money Magic has the potential for a big return here on the super quick back-up.
He has won only one of his seven starts, and that was over 1500m, so the 2400m Group 1 presents a challenge.
That said, he looks to be rising through the grades quickly and maybe has been crying out for more distance.
Ran on Tuesday on a Heavy (8) at Rosehill and from barrier 13 was brave in a narrow Group 2 Tulloch Stakes (2000m) second.
He made up all the ground from the back but just ran out of time.
Reaching the apex of his capabilities now and think the short turnaround puts him in the mix at a lovely price.
PLACE.
Happy punting!