The countdown to the Ladbrokes Cox Plate continues this weekend with Flemington host to the race which produced last year’s eight-length champion, and we have a star-studded line-up of middle-distance gallopers to consider in our 2025 Turnbull Stakes Preview.
The mares have a lovely record in the Group 1, 2000m clash with victories from the likes of Lucia Valentina (2014), the brilliant Winx (2017, 2018), the fellow Chris Waller-trained Verry Elleegant (2020), and another Waller mare in Via Sistina (2024).
Via Sistina returns to defend her title as the deserving favourite on Saturday, but can she bounce back after a loss last time out?
She’s the class horse in the 14-starter field but faces some stiff competition from the likes of last start Underwood Stakes champ Sir Delius and her up-and-coming stablemate Aeliana.
Read on for our expert runner-by-runner guide to the 2025 Turnbull Stakes!
- To Win – No. 4 Via Sistina
- Top 3 – No. 7 Aeliana
- Top 4 – No. 10 Golden Path
| 4. Via Sistina (1) J: James McDonald 57kg 11×13T: Chris Waller | ||
| 7. Aeliana (5) J: Damian Lane 55kg 21×22T: Chris Waller | ||
| 10. Golden Path (3) J: Jordan Childs 55kg 5×313T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr |
1. Antino (6) – Tony Gollan
Odds: $9.50 (at time of publish)
Tony Gollan’s Doomben Cup champ Antino isn’t one to discount in the Turnbull at pretty juicy odds.
The Redwood seven-year-old from the sunshine state may be winless from four runs at HQ but he’s a genuine Group 1 performer who looks set to appreciate a return to 2000m third-up and fit.
Fresh in the Memsie he ran fifth to Treasurethe Moment in a solid return before improving to cross just two lengths off historic three-time champion Mr B in the Makybe Diva here over the mile in what I thought was a super second-up run.
Settling right back, he travelled nicely for Blake Shinn presenting when asked 400m out from the line off a moderate tempo.
He finished off his final 100m so well and can go on with the job now getting the extra distance to wind-up and challenge on Saturday.
A horse that always holds his own in this company, Shinn sticks with from gate six and a Top 3 run wouldn’t surprise.
2. Land Legend (10) – Chris Waller
Odds: $67 (at time of publish)
One of the real roughie hopes in the mix from the Waller stable, Land Legend was winning the Group 1 The Metrop (2400m) in Sydney on this day 12 months ago but doesn’t present as a real threat further south in this event.
The Galileo six-year-old has been racing far from his best this prep including crossing right back ninth over seven lengths off Lindermann in the Group 2 Chelmsford in Sydney before his fifth at 60/1 in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes (1800m) on September 20.
He did hit the line nicely and is one that will improve the further he gets.
Third in the Caulfield Cup trifecta on 53kg last spring, I still believe he’s a better horse in Sydney than when he runs the Melbourne way and, while Jye McNeil is a good hoop, he’s on Land Legend for the first time on Saturday.
Carries the second top weight of 58kg so, isn’t really that well weighted either.
It’s been a year between wins, and I expect the drought to continue.
3. Sir Delius (14) – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Odds: $4.60 (at time of publish)
The Underwood Stakes winner Sir Delius is being kept safe in the markets chasing a Group 1 double as he continues towards the Melbourne Cup for Waterhouse & Bott.
Beautifully bred being a five-year-old Frankel entire, he still boasts plenty of upside having just his 10th start on Saturday.
His winning strike-rate is impressive as he’s saluted five times, and he’s run outside the top three on just one occasion when eighth in the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France last year.
Won his Australian debut back in March on Heavy going in Brisbane over this distance with a big weight, was second fresh narrowly denied in the Chelmsford over the Randwick mile in an excellent return, then franked that form with his Underwood victory.
Beat Buckaroo home in a fighting finish overcoming a far from ideal run to just keep on trying.
He knows what winning’s all about this guy; when he saw that winning post he pricked the ears and went for it!
Thrilling to watch, he’s proven up to 2400m so one would expect him to be even more efficient getting to 2000m now.
The only query is the wide alley (14 of 14). Since the mighty Makybe Diva won the 2005 Turnbull from gate 16 of 16 just four horses have saluted from double-digits.
That said, I see him enjoying the space at Flemington, Craig Williams will know where to place him and he doesn’t shy away from a challenge!
4. Via Sistina (1) – Chris Waller
Odds: $2.40 (at time of publish)
The queen returns looking to atone after her last start third in the Makybe Diva where she dashed well late off a sit and sprint affair that didn’t work for her.
She lost few admirers in that run which came off a tough first-up victory on a bottomless Heavy (10) track at Randwick in the Winx Stakes.
Up to her pet distance of 2000m now (14:9-4-0) and she is the one to beat.
Same path as last spring when taking out the Winx, going down in the Makybe Diva then winning this event before her eight-length Cox Plate triumph.
She is two-from-two over this track and trip having won this and the Champions Stakes during the Cup Carnival.
J-Mac aboard once more and drawn to get the run of the race from barrier one.
It’s a good field but she’s better than good and I expect her to claim Group 1 win number 11.
5. Moira (11) – Chris Waller
Odds: $35 (at time of publish)
Canadian bred Ghostzapper mare who is with Waller now, Moira heads to Flemington for the first time four runs into her spring prep.
Her lead-ups have all been solid without explosion including a last start fourth to Sir Delius in the Underwood when four lengths beaten.
She had few excuses there getting a charmed run but was flat late unable to really pick up a Good (3) track despite being a Group 1 winner in the States on Firm going.
Her 2000m strike rate is okay (5:1-1-2) but she’s widely drawn, has a jockey change with Ben Melham coming aboard and I didn’t see enough last time out to suggest she’ll be a threat to the better fancied from the stable.
6. Half Yours (4) – Tony & Calvin McEvoy
Odds: $11 (at time of publish)
Tony & Calvin McEvoy’s St Jean five-year-old Half Yours is one horse in the Turnbull I’m really excited to watch.
He is being thrown in the deep end here and he has a sniff of class about him suggesting he could be capable of a competitive run.
Winner of the winter’s Caloundra Cup (2400m) by a runaway 4.45 lengths, he came back in distance to 1500m at Rosehill in late August where the lower metres and wide alley (16 of 18) had him beaten.
Bounced back returning to a more suitable trip at Caulfield in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000m) beating Berkshire Breeze by 3.5 lengths in a stylish performance with 54.5kg to book his Caulfield Cup ticket.
Carries 56kg on Saturday but is at the right trip, gets things his way from barrier four and Jamie Melham sticks with.
The Naturalism – Turnbull Stakes double was completed a few years back by Smokin’ Romans (2022) and there’s been a bit of money on Half Yours to repeat the feat as he’s firmed from $14 to $11 at time of publish.
He’ll be midfield and finishing strongly but does need to prove he’s up to Group 1 grade.
7. Aeliana (5) – Chris Waller
Odds: $5.50 (at time of publish)
Aeliana is the up-and-comer for Waller who could shape-up as the stable’s next superstar mare.
The way she put the boys to bed with her five-length ATC Derby demolition job as a filly in the autumn was outstanding.
She’s been equally eye-catching in her two runs as a four-year-old this prep posting back-to-back seconds in the Winx Stakes and Makybe Diva so brings in the right form lines.
Crossing 1.5 lengths off Mr B last time out over the mile here she was one better than Via and presents as the danger again here.
Love her getting out to 2000m, barrier five is spot on and Damian Lane sticks with.
Gets a 1.5kg weight turnaround on her better fancied stablemate.
She could win this, so I’ll be taking her Each Way.
8. Young Werther (13) – Danny O’Brien
Odds: $126 (at time of publish)
Danny O’Brien’s Tavistock eight-year-old is a veteran lining-up in his 14th Group 1 race but in his 43 career starts he’s yet to even win a Black-Type.
His wins have been few and far between, but three of his five turf triumphs have been at 2000m, so the distance is right.
Look, he did beat subsequent Caulfield Cup champ Duke De Sessa home in a quality handicap with 61kg at Flemington last August, but he’s been able to run in the money just once since.
That was a third to Golden Path at HQ on September 13 over 1700m narrowly beaten by the heavily weighted winner.
Goes up sharply in grade off that, and his latest elite level run was in the Australian Cup over the 2000m here when he was flogged by 13 lengths.
Can’t see him coming within five lengths of whichever horse wins.
9. Adelaide River (9) – Kris Lees
Odds: $41 (at time of publish)
Australia gelding Adelaide River has his first Flemington run and with really hit and miss form this prep he is tough to declare as a sincere contender.
The Irish import hasn’t won since arriving down under last year to join Kris Lees, but he did run a credible fourth behind Deny Knowledge in the Group 1 Might And Power (2000m) last October.
First and second-up this time in he ran eighth in both the Spring Preview on Heavy going with 60kg behind War Eternal and the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes when over six lengths beaten.
Improved up to 2000m at Randwick in the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes going down in a photo-thriller to Birdman at big odds to show a glimpse of what he is capable of at his best.
Narrowly denied by the winner who had the fitness edge, it was a good run but not good enough to back with any confidence in a field of this class.
10. Golden Path (3) – Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr)
Odds: $18 (at time of publish)
Golden Path is an in-form Belardo six-year-old from the Price & Kent Jnr yard who I really like for an exotics inclusion in the Turnbull this year.
He loves Flemington being two-from-three at the track and he boasts a 50% winning strike rate from four 2000m starts to date.
Wasn’t really matching motors with the big V in the autumn when well off her in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill but looks to have come back fit and firing.
Two back he won the Flemington race that Adelaide River was eighth in overcoming 61kg and barrier 16 of 16 to get his confidence up.
Franked that form running out of his skin in the Underwood at 20/1 to run third only a half-length off the highly favoured Sir Delius.
He was terrific there and I think he can go on with the job now.
Has upside, will likely be on pace with the stamina to stick with the task and a Top 4 run isn’t outside his capabilities.
11. Middle Earth (7) – Ciaron Maher
Odds: $51 (at time of publish)
Plenty of punters have thrown money on this Maher import for the Caulfield Cup in a fortnight’s time, so there’s sure to be eyes tracking his run here.
The six-year-old son of Roaring Lion has previous winning form at Flemington having taken out the Australian Cup Prelude back in March defeating Duke De Sessa.
He went on to disappoint when fifth in the Australian Cup and ninth in the Queen Elizabeth – both over 2000m – to see out his ultimately below par autumn campaign.
A dour type who has won up to 2816m I can see the appeal as he gets up to a mile and a half, but not sure about him at this distance.
Far from disgraced first-up at Caulfield when lumping 62kg to run fifth to the now confirmed Melbourne Cup bound Revelare, he then ran in the Underwood and finished second last.
Jockey Mark Zahra wasn’t fazed by what, on paper, looked like a poor run declaring the horse is just crying out for further.
Not ruling out of the Caulfield Cup definitely but also definitely ruling him out of a win here.
12. Deakin (12) – Phillip Stokes
Odds: $67 (at time of publish)
Another Australia six-year-old in the mix, Deakin races third-up rising in grade after two runs in non-stakes company this prep.
Winner of the Listed Roy Higgins here over 2600m back in March, he’s also an outright stayer that I think needs at least 2400m to be really competitive.
At his latest he ran seventh three lengths off Golden Path at Caulfield in a race I actually think is a pretty strong form line.
That said, I prefer the winner out of that who went on to prove his Group 1 potential, and I haven’t seen that from this guy yet.
13. Zardozi (2) – Ciaron Maher
Odds: $34 (at time of publish)
I love this mare, and she shapes up as a potential smokey to add into those SRM multis on the Turnbull.
Maher’s five-year-old daughter of Kingman is out to break a winning drought that goes back to her Group 2 Phar Lap win at Rosehill in March last year.
As a filly she was excellent taking out the VRC Oaks and running second in the ATC Oaks.
Then last spring she was so competitive in the staying features running fourth in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup races carrying no weight.
She saw this course and distance in the Australian Cup when third back in March, presents fit third-up now off two decent runs including her seventh in the Underwood and can surprise getting up in trip now.
While Jamie Melham said Zardozi was flat in the Underwood, on the rewatch I think she might have just got too far back and lacked the time and fitness to go on with it late.
Harry Coffey comes aboard for the Turnbull, and the mare should be airborne back from 57kg to just 53kg.
One of the best weighted, she could shock a few the closing stages.
14. River Of Stars (8) – Chris Waller
Odds: $151 (at time of publish)
River Of Stars is the rank outsider in the markets at triple-figures but there could be a case for this Sea The Stars mare to run better than the price suggests.
She’s Waller trained, carrying 53kg and has a decent second-up record (6:2-2-1) as a start.
Is that enough?
She was third in the Sydney Cup trifecta at just her second Australian start behind Arapaho over the two miles at Randwick back in April, and while she’s been well beaten in her two subsequent runs, they were over unsuitably shorter distances.
At her latest she ran a midfield eighth to Half Yours in the Naturalism with 58kg and getting back in the kilos will see her improve.
That was under the riding of a C Williams however and he rides Sir Delius in the Turnbull.
Beau Mertens comes on as the replacement, and I think he’ll land her on speed where she has the stamina to outstay more than one of these.
Won’t be in the trifecta but won’t be last either.
Happy punting!
Don’t forget to check out our The Punters’ Playbook: Flemington Spring Carnival Deep Dive for the inside word on the jockeys, trainers and races to watch over the following months!