Saturday’s Best Bets: Ladbrokes Form Analysts

BRINDAVAN (2) was thrown in the deep end when having his first Australian start in The Gateway.

Now with Tony Gollan, the four-year-old gelding settled back before working home well until fitness gave out late to finish five lengths ninth.   

The former UK galloper appreciated dropping in class last start at Doomben where he let down powerfully from near the tail to win by three-quarters of a length.

Given how strong he was late over a mile, the rise in distance suits and he’s a previous third-up winner.

WROTE TO ARATAKI (1) seems well over the odds at $23 and I’m happy to side with her in the Bellmaine Stakes.    

The Matthew Williams-trained mare resumes here and looks set for a bold showing following two jump out wins.

She lines up in this race for the fourth consecutive year, with her record showing a win in 2023 before finishing fourth in 2024 and third last year.

The daughter of Wrote resumed last preparation in the Cockram Stakes over this course and distance and was unlucky not to finish closer than 2.8 lengths sixth after being badly tightened for room in the closing stages.

Damask Rose was just ahead of her that day in fifth, and she’s considered a $5.50 chance, so I know which horse I’d rather back at their prices.

Dean Yendall can give her a sweet run on speed from barrier 2.

I’m expecting MISS SCANDAL (9) to be talked about seriously in Golden Slipper conversations following Saturday’s Widden Stakes.

The Chris Waller-trained filly debuts here on the back of two impressive trials. While her first trial saw her race well on the speed to finish a head second to Breeders’ Plate winner Incognito, it was her second piece of work where she was trucking in behind the leaders under a double James McDonald grip that suggests that she is the real deal.

J-Mac’ will likely rider her similar here, stalking the leaders before launching in the straight. She’s short-priced favourite to win this so if you’re looking for a better price, I suggest backing her in the Ladbrokes Golden Slipper futures market where she’s currently marked as a $17 chance.

BIG SKY (1) showed an abundance of speed in a massive trial win, so expectations were high heading into his debut at Flemington.

The Price and Kent Jnr-trained colt didn’t disappoint, leading over 1000m before dashing clear to win convincingly by 2.75 lengths.

He raced greenly so will have taken an abundance of benefit from the run and the experience will come in handy against several debutants.

Ben Melham will give him every chance by going forward from the low draw.

See my best value bet for reasoning.

• Top 4 – Vodka Martini (1)             
• Top 4 – Chakra Boy (2)             
• Top 4 – Wondereach (9)             

I don’t think Tiger Tie should be favourite in this race so that lends itself to value elsewhere.

I’m kicking off my Same Race Multi with my on top race tip, VODKA MARTINI (1). This stunning chestnut gelding has been dealt rubbish gates lately but draws to perfection in barrier 1 here and I think that should see him produce his best.

CHAKRA BOY (2) has raced well this preparation but looks set to peak third-up which is a hallmark of his career. He’s a previous winner over this course and distance.

Rounding out my SRM is WONDERREACH (9) who brings solid New South Wales form which always holds up well in Brisbane.

GALLANT SON (3) brings strong winning form and further improvement into another well-suited race.

He was consistent throughout last autumn and unlucky not to break through at black-type level.

After an encouraging December trial, he returned with a striking first-up victory at Flemington.

Back to Caulfield and stepping into a race with a bend, he looks well placed to secure back-to-back wins.

HARRY’S YACHT (1) has shown solid consistency this preparation, scoring in BM84 grade two runs ago before turning in another respectable performance in a lucrative VOBIS race last start.

Despite being asked to carry top weight, he should enjoy a favourable run under Jamie Melham, and he looks a genuine contender again at double-figures.

MISS CHANEL (3) steps out second-up and looks poised to take another step forward in the Widden Stakes.

She displayed promise in her trial leading into her debut and backed that up with a strong effort to finish third here a fortnight ago, beaten just over a length.

Drawing a favourable gate, she should be afforded every opportunity once again.

Big Sky has been installed as the odds-on favourite for the Chairman’s Stakes, which is understandable given his debut effort, but I’m happy to take him on with a runner offering more value.

INVINCIBLE SON (2) has also had just the one start and while his initial performance was sound enough to finish in the placings, he looks capable of further improvement.

He showed promise in his trials before his debut and finished third behind Unit Five, who has since franked the form by winning the Magic Millions 2YO Classic.

A subsequent trial and the engagement of Jamie Melham only enhance his prospects.

DAMASK ROSE (3) looks well placed in the Bellmaine Stakes.

She was outstanding in New Zealand last summer and autumn, capturing features like the Karaka Millions 3YO and The Kiwi, though her four runs during the Melbourne Spring Carnival fell below her best.

Her recent trials have been encouraging, she holds a clear class edge over much of this field, and the inside draw gives her plenty of options in the run.

• No. 1 Incognito (Win)
• No. 2 Defensemen (Top 3)

INCOGNITO (1) has gone up the odds-on favourite for the Canonbury Stakes.

He only had one start in his first campaign but marked himself as a horse to watch by claiming the Breeders’ Plate comfortably.

He’s come through his trials well and on exposed form, he looks very hard to beat.

I’m selecting him as my winner in a Same Race Multi and boosting my odds with Defensemen to finish in the top three.

While DEFENSEMEN (2) didn’t break his maiden in two starts last spring, he performed well in both the Kirkham Plate and the Golden Gift, giving him an experience advantage over many of his rivals.

ENRICHED (6) is a proven fresh horse and looks well placed stepping out at Group 3 level. 

We haven’t seen the I Am Invincible entire since last autumn, but he left a big impression last prep — landing the Listed Fireball Stakes before capping things off with a tough, perfectly judged win in the 3YO Arrowfield Sprint under Tommy Berry. 

Berry sticks and the pair return off a pair of slick trials. With a dry deck expected, ENRICHED looks set to be right in the finish. 

NANDINA (10) earns her chance in town after making an absolute mess of them on debut at Warwick Farm earlier this month. 

The So You Think filly has been marked at double-figure odds and you can see why stepping up, but the way she hit the line was hard to miss — charging home down the outside to run past Manukau, who has since franked the form with a strong win at Kembla Grange on Wednesday. 

Tyler Schiller picks up the ride and from barrier 4 she should get every chance to settle back and be launching late. 

MISS SCANDAL (9) comes to the races with plenty of expectation on debut and it’s easy to see why the market has gravitated her way. 

She’s had two encouraging trials over the past month without winning, the first back in early January where she went stride for stride with Incognito for most of the journey before finishing a close second. 

James McDonald takes the reins on Saturday, and this doesn’t look the deepest maiden to kick things off. From barrier 6, the pair should have plenty of options in running and she looks well placed to make a statement first-up. 

BIG SKY (1) was snapped up quickly by punters after blowing them away on debut at Flemington a fortnight ago. 

Jordan Childs gave him a perfect ride, landing in a stalking spot before pressing the button at the top of the straight and dashing clear to score with plenty in reserve. 

 This steps up again in grade, but he’s a colt with genuine upside and looks to have bigger targets on the radar. 

SAMANGU (5) was flying this time last year, stringing together back-to-back wins at Caulfield before heading to the paddock for a lengthy 40-week spell. She returned on the Heath track in late December and clearly needed the run, looking as though she was crying out for further. 

We saw sharp improvement second-up at Flemington in the Group 3 Standish Handicap, where she worked through along the rail to finish sixth, still hitting the line with something to offer. 

The fitness edge is the key here. If she can land a touch closer in the run this time, she’s right in the mix and looks a genuine top-three chance at the price. 

• No. 3 Gallant Son (Win)
• No. 4 Rue De Royale (Top 4)
• No. 9 Behaviour (Top 4)

Just like Timmsy, I’m big on GALLANT SON (3) coming off a very impressive first-up win at Flemington a few weeks ago. He maps to get another lovely run up on the speed on Saturday and looks one of the better bets on the program. 

RUE DE ROYALE (4) is rock-hard fit now and well-suited dropping back slightly to 1100m. He gets in nicely again at the weights and is three weeks between runs after going very close at Flemington last start. 

INCOGNITO (6) isn’t offering much meat on the bone at around $1.60 for the Canonbury, but it’s still tough to poke holes in him.

The Stay Inside colt is the lone non-maiden in a skinny field and looks primed to pick up exactly where he left off.

He was superb winning the Group 3 Breeders’ Plate on debut at Randwick and has looked every bit as sharp in two strong trials since.

Proven at the level, clearly back bigger and stronger with the Golden Slipper on the radar, and he gets Tommy Berry again from a draw that won’t matter in a small line-up.

If he produces the same turn of foot he showed last prep, he should simply outclass them.

LA GITANA (4) debuts in the Chairman’s and at $10 (at time of publish) this Lindsay Park raced filly stands to make a big impression first-up.

She’s by dual Group 1 winning sprinter Home Affairs so has the pedigree to make herself known especially at this level to get her career underway.

Has had four lead-up trials and comes off back-to-back winning jump outs at Pakenham over the summer where she’s done more than just go through the motions.

Cherry ripe for her first race day appearance, has a very capable hoop with Damian Lane taking the seat and is drawn a dream in gate four.

Can surprise a few with bigger targets in sight.

PEARL OF DUBAI (1) steps out for her second career run in the Widden and looks well above the odds to shed the maiden tag.

She was excellent on debut in October, finishing a close second to Thrill Hunter in the Kirkham Plate at Randwick, and her two recent trials suggest she’s tightened up beautifully for this.

The Wootton Bassett filly showed enough natural talent in the spring to hint she’ll measure up to the better 2YOs this autumn, and this is the perfect launching pad.

She draws well, meets them at level weights, and Andrew Adkins — riding in terrific touch — takes the reins.

Overlooked in early markets and shaping as one of the stronger Each Way plays on the program.

BIG SKY (1) is the deserving odds-on favourite in the Chairman’s and the horse to beat for mine.

From the Price & Kent Jnr yard, this well-bred Bivouac colt has the right pedigree for a big campaign and showed plenty on debut winning a 2YO Handicap at Flemington over 1000m by nearly 3 lengths earlier this month.

He is the 59kg topweight here but proved he can carry the kilos without a worry and is proven over the distance.

Drawn for a dream run in a small field with Ben Melham – who has a strong record for the stable – coming aboard for the ride in another tick.

From the gate he can bounce out, hit the front and he’ll take some running down.

DAMASK ROSE (3) is a gun Kiwi visitor who races for the first time since her second last behind Pride Of Jenni in the Group 1 Empire Rose last Melbourne Cup Carnival.

Mark Walker’s reigning The Kiwi champ from across the Tasman hasn’t won since March but is right down in grade and finds herself a winnable Group 3 event here to get the confidence back up before the autumn majors.

The four-year-old daughter of Savabeel’s record at Caulfield isn’t brilliant but she’s proven to be a very good type on her day.

Wasn’t that far off the best in the spring finishing midfield without disgrace in both the Group 1 Rupert Clarke and Toorak, and I really like her back in grade fresh.

Has a good first-up record (4:2-0-1), gets things her way from the inside alley and with big race specialist Craig Williams coming aboard she’s right in the mix.

Trialled well at Cranbourne leading up to her return, gets the blinkers on to keep her focused and I think she’s one to watch late making up ground. Value.

• Top 2 – No. 2 The Instructor
• Top 3 – No. 8 Meridiana
• Top 4 – No. 5 Disneck

THE INSTRUCTOR (5) is favourite for the JRA Plate (formerly the Southern Cross Stakes) and I am more than happy to lock him in for a top two finish third-up and fit. The Waterhouse & Bott-trained Russian Revolution five-year-old has a solid record at the distance (8:3-1-1) and comes via a seventh in the Magic Millions Sprint when four lengths beaten at the Gold Coast having tried too hard to stick with a hot pace before fading. He’s fitter now and won’t be falling back late like last start in a smaller field ready to atone. Gets conditions to suit, Adam Hyeronimus knows him very well and sticks in the saddle, is expected to hit the front again but will take more to run down.

MERIDIANA (1) is the early market mover for the day’s feature at Rosehill, and I think she presents great top three value. Drawn the rails, this consistent John Sargent-trained Preferment mare lands herself a winnable Group 3 event fresh and is unbeaten (two-from-two) first-up. Proven here at Rosehill in easier grade (2:1-1-0), the bonny four-year-old runs for the first time since a BM78 second placing behind Rotagilla here over 1800m back in November. She carted 58kg that day, going down under a length and will be absolutely airborne in on just 53kg this weekend. While the 1200m is shy of her pet distance range, the weight and rails-draw make her a genuine danger, and the money is starting to come. Zac Lloyd takes the mount in another plus; she’ll settle back but has the ability to put herself in the frame late.

DISNECK (8) comes off a win fresh in the Group 3 Standish Handicap (1200m) at HQ by nearly two lengths as a double-figure outsider in the markets, and he doesn’t need to do much more to stay in touch with this similar class of rivals in Sydney. He’s at the right distance (19:6-0-2) and is fitter for his resuming run where he rounded up the field in an impressive display. Will carry a kilo more with Josh Parr, who has got a good strike-rate aboard Bjorn Baker’s sprinter, taking over. He’ll go back from the draw, but the right tempo makes him a big late threat to run in the money.