The ‘Race that Stops a Nation’ is almost here as we look ahead to Tuesday’s $7.75 million Melbourne Cup at Flemington!
Like every year, the top of the market is headlined by an international making his first start in Australia – this time, James Ferguson’s import Deauville Legend.
The international flavour continues on the second line of Melbourne Cup betting with Gold Trip and Without A Fight both staking their claim, while there’s also a case to be made for a few familiar faces like Montefilia, Duais, and former Cup winner, Vow and Declare.
It’s easily one of the toughest races to pick, but we’ve done all the analysis for you in our 2022 Melbourne Cup Preview below!
1. Gold Trip (14)
Gold Trip has been an honest customer ever since arriving in Australia.
The French import kicked off his time down under running back-to-back placings at Rosehill and Caulfield before taking on much tougher company in the Turnbull Stakes where he spotted his rivals a lead before running home into fifth.
He took plenty of improvement into his next start to finish a narrow second to Durston in the Caulfield Cup, while he’s worth forgiving on last week’s run in the Cox Plate after being held up at a crucial stage.
The step up to 3200m is the big query for a horse that holds just one win to his name, but it’s fair to say the Maher and Eustace stable typically nail these kinds of decisions with their stayers.
He’s in his absolute peak, handles the wet, and should be given every chance under Mark Zahra.
2. Duais (10)
Duais has been set for this race for several months and was at one point the favourite in Ladbrokes’ All-In market.
She’s since fallen out of favour with the bookies following a couple of plain runs in the George Main Stakes and the Turnbull leading in, but those were simply warm-ups as she gets out over further.
Her most recent performance in the Caulfield Cup was more of what we’re used to seeing, peeling out wide at the turn to run on and finish only 2.5L off Durston with plenty left in the tank through the line.
The Shamus Award mare is a multiple Group 1 winner that stays all day, and providing the track isn’t too wet, she’s a genuine shot with the class of Hugh Bowman booked to ride.
3. Knights Order (24)
Knights Order is hoping to win his third Cup in as many states, having won the Brisbane Cup last year and more recently the Sydney Cup during the autumn at Randwick.
The son of So You Think has a chance to follow in Makybe Diva’s footsteps by becoming the first horse since 2004 to achieve the Sydney Cup/Melbourne Cup double, and his recent form suggests he’s in with a chance.
The Irish import was disappointing in this race last year running 19th, but a recent third in the Caulfield Cup puts him in good stead.
He handles all conditions and will carry just the 55.5kg’s under Tim Clark.
4. Montefilia (11)
There aren’t many horses in this year’s Melbourne Cup field that boast a resume quite like Montefilia’s.
David Payne’s four-time Group 1 winning mare beat last year’s Cup winner Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet Stakes during the autumn and will now step out over 3200m for the first time with three solid runs under her belt.
Her longest win was over 2400m in The Metropolitan last year, but she’s bred to see out the longer trip in just her second start at Flemington.
Payne aimed her at this race last year coming off an equally impressive run in the Caulfield Cup but chose to wait an extra 12 months for her to mature.
After bolting home late to finish fourth in the Cup for the second year in a row, that decision could pay huge dividends for a mare that has already racked up over $2.5 million in prizemoney.
5. Numerian (7)
Numerian marked himself as one of the horses to follow in the Caulfield Cup when he returned from a freshen-up to run second to Cascadian in the Hill Stakes at Randwick.
He took up a forward spot and was unlucky not to run a place in a late sprint to the line two weeks later, a run he can certainly improve on with Tommy Berry booked to ride.
Annabel Neasham’s European import also won the Gosford Cup and a Group 2 at Eagle Farm over the winter, while he’s no stranger to lugging some big weight around.
6. Without A Fight (18)
Without A Fight is another Irish raider that gets a big tick on recent form.
The son of Teofilo won the Grand Cup with plenty in hand over 2787m at York earlier in the year, and then went one better over the same track and trip taking out the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes by 3.5 lengths.
He lugged big weight (61.5kg) to finish runner-up in a Listed race at Newmarket and has been kept fresh for the run.
There’s no question he’ll see out two miles with just 55.5 kg’s on his back, and if he can push forward and land on speed, he should be in this all the way under William Buick.
7. Camorra (17)
Camorra will make up part of the Irish contingent in this year’s Cup when he debuts for the Lindsay Park team.
The Zoffany six-year-old was a comfortable winner of the Group 2 Curragh Cup back in June but failed to produce his best finishing 8th in the field of 11 in the Group 1 St Leger carrying 62kg’s.
There’s no question he’ll see out the trip with some relief at the weights, but he needs to improve significantly to be any real threat to some of the better Melbourne Cup horses here.
8. Deauville Legend (9)
Deauville Legend is hoping to take the Cup back home when he lines up as the favourite on Tuesday.
James Ferguson’s import brings impressive form into his Flemington debut, most notably winning the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York over former stablemate El Bodegon.
That form measured up last week with El Bodgeon running a place in the Cox Plate, while he’ll also get the added services of three-time Cup-winning hoop Kerrin McEvoy in the saddle.
He hasn’t won over the Cup distance (3200m), but out of Epsom Derby and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Sea The Stars, he’s definitely bred for big races like this.
9. Stockman (2)
Stockman went around at Rosehill on Saturday in the Gold Cup where he weakened late to finish midfield.
He tends to mix his form this boy, but he’s got claims after holding on for fourth in The Metropolitan before showing real improvement down in class to win the St Leger a few weeks ago.
The son of Tavistock is an out-and-out stayer, but how he handles 54kg’s in his first-ever start in Melbourne are the two big questions.
10. Vow and Declare (4)
Vow and Declare is hoping to become the first two-time Cup winner on non-successive years since Peter Pan achieved the feat way back in 1932 and 1934.
The seven-year-old by Declaration of War won this race back in 2019 in memorable fashion under Craig Williams but failed to defend his title a year later finishing 18th.
He hasn’t won a race since, but he’s enjoyed a recent return to form finishing fifth in The Bart Cummings at Flemington last month before timing his run well for sixth in the Caulfield Cup.
The rain would need to stay away for him to be a threat, but he’ll be given every chance with 2008 Cup winner Blake Shinn booked to ride.
11. Young Werther (21)
Young Werther’s form measures up for a big performance in this year’s Melbourne Cup, despite the fact he hasn’t won since his debut at Geelong two years ago.
The Tavistock five-year-old has held his own in several Group 1’s in the past, most notably finishing a narrow second in last year’s ATC Derby at Randwick, and 1.5L third to Smokin’ Romans in the Turnbull Stakes here at Flemington last month.
He didn’t handle the conditions in the Cox Plate last week and is worth forgiving, while he’s also hard fit now with three runs under the belt.
Danny O’Brien won this race only three years ago with Vow and Declare, and this boy looks like another live chance at a decent price.
12. Hoo Ya Mal (15)
Hoo Ya Mal is an impressive European import stepping out for the Waterhouse and Bott yard that staked his claim for a spot in the Cup when finishing runner-up in the Epsom Derby over the mile and a half back in June.
The international raider went on to run third in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood where current Cup favourite Deauville Legend finished second, followed by a win in the Group 3 March Stakes by a big margin.
That form combined with the booking of superstar Craig Williams, suggests he’s a definite chance at value – but his most recent run when second-last in the St Leger makes him a genuine query stepping up to 3200m.
13. Serpentine (23)
Serpentine gained late entry into the field following Alegron’s withdrawal on Saturday.
John Allen is booked to ride the Galileo six-year-old, who steps out on a short backup after leading for most of the way and only going down narrowly in the Lexus Archer Stakes on Derby Day.
His previous form since arriving in Australia hasn’t been much chop, but he does warrant respect after winning the 2020 Epsom Derby by a whopping five lengths.
14. Daqiansweet Junior (13)
Kiwi-bred import Daqiansweet Junior is hoping to secure a Cup double after winning the Adelaide Cup back in March.
He ventured to Sydney a month later to run a place in the Sydney Cup, but on paper, his form has been lacking since resuming in the Heatherlie Handicap at Caulfield earlier in August.
He’s been kept fresh for his second-last performance in the Bart Cummings last month, a result that reads better than it looks considering he finished only 2.5 lengths off Lunar Flare.
A genuinely wet track might test him, but he’s a much better chance than the market suggests.
15. Grand Promenade (1)
Grand Promenade is back for another crack at the Cup after running a strong race for sixth last year.
He came in as the winner of the Bart Cummings last time round, which happens to be the last time he featured in the winner’s circle.
He’ll handle rain-affected ground but needs to improve significantly after being beaten nearly 12 lengths in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last week.
16. Arapaho (19)
Arapaho is a very honest type that has made his presence felt since arriving in Australia.
He gapped his rivals by 2.5L to win the Grafton Cup earlier in the year and then stepped out at Randwick to beat home Francesco Guardi – a horse that should be in this year’s Cup – by a narrow margin in a Group 3 at Randwick.
More recently, Bjorn Baker’s French import was third to Durston in the Newcastle Cup and second to Stockman in the St Leger.
He only earned a spot after Persan and Nerve Not Verve withdrew, but that isn’t to say he can’t run a cheeky race at huge odds.
17. Emissary (3)
Emissary is another horse that has benefited from the withdrawal of Loft and Durston last week.
He staked his claim for a spot when winning the Geelong Cup a fortnight ago by a length, a form-line that has stacked up nicely in the Melbourne Cup for several decades.
The Michael Moroney-trained six-year-old would probably like the wet weather to stay away, but he does warrant some respect after running home for third in the Hotham Handicap at Flemington over 2500m last year.
18. Lunar Flare (12)
Update: Lunar Flare (lame in the off fore) has been scratched from the 2022 Melbourne Cup on race morning after failing to pass her re-examination by RV vets.
Lunar Flare is coming off a couple of clashes with impressive international Francesco Guardi that read quite well.
The Fiorente mare got the upper hand and earned a spot in the Cup when she burst clear along the rail to win the Bart Cummings two runs back but was then no match for her stablemate in last week’s Moonee Valley Gold Cup finishing a clear runner-up by 3.75 lengths.
That form stacks up nicely though and she does rate a genuine each-way chance racing on the quick backup.
She’s performed admirably at Flemington finding the money in four of her seven starts, while the lightweight of 51.5kg’s under Caulfield Cup-winning jockey Michael Dee is a big advantage.
19. Smokin’ Romans (16)
Smokin’ Romans was among the eye-catchers in the Caulfield Cup, shifting to the inside at the top of the straight to finish only 2.3 lengths off Durston.
He was a clear winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes the run prior, capping off a much-improved month of racing in comparison to the horse whose previous claim to fame was having won the Pakenham Cup.
The step up to 3200m from a tricky gate is the big test, but he’ll be given every chance under Jamie Kah, who hopes to become just the second female jockey to win the Cup since Michelle Payne.
20. Tralee Rose (22)
Tralee Rose will line up in the Cup for a second time hoping to improve on her effort for ninth last year.
She came in as the previous Geelong Cup winner 12 months ago, which was also the last time she tasted victory.
Her recent efforts in the Heatherlie and the Caulfield Cup have been below her best and another Top 10 finish appears unlikely.
21. Point Nepean (20)
Update: Point Nepean has been scratched from the 2022 Melbourne Cup on vet’s advice.
Point Nepean is no stranger to racing at Flemington having claimed his hat-trick in the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m at Headquarters back in May.
He’s struggled to find that same form since resuming though, beaten nearly five lengths by subsequent Bendigo Cup winner High Emocean and six lengths in the Herbert Power at Caulfield last time out.
Hard to see him laying down much of a challenge.
22. High Emocean (8)
High Emocean will carry just 50kg’s into this year’s Melbourne Cup on the back of her Bendigo Cup win last Wednesday.
The daughter of Ocean Park went around as the short-priced favourite and did not disappoint, getting up narrowly at the line to put away the small field of seven.
She’s been in good form over the last few months having also won at Flemington over 2500m two runs back, while she was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Lunar Flare in the Bart Cummings.
A win looks unlikely, but she’s hard fit at this stage of her prep and a Top 10 finish isn’t entirely out of the question.
23. Interpretation (6)
Interpretation strips fitter for three runs back and is one of the more interesting runners at a rough price.
The Galileo entire earned a start following the scratching of Loft and was beaten only a length in the Bart Cummings two runs back – a key form line that might leave him a little over the odds.
He lost no admirers in the Geelong Cup two weeks ago when sixth, and he did manage to string together a hat-trick to begin his career overseas. Do not underestimate.
24. Realm Of Flowers (5)
Realm Of Flowers was set to earn her way into the Cup with a win in the Archer Stakes on Saturday, but luck has since swung her way following the scratchings of Durston and Loft.
The So You Think mare has gained a start and will carry just 50kg’s in her fourth run back, while she appears to have found some good form just in time.
She defied the market to run third in a photo in The Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick last time out and will now return with just over a month between starts.
Punters may remember her comfortable 4.75L win in the Andrew Ramsden at Flemington over 2800m back in May, a performance that suggests she’ll see out Tuesday’s distance no problem.