The Group 1 Ladbrokes Manikato Stakes kicks off a massive weekend of racing and sport this Friday at The Valley.
This year’s edition of the race returns to a Friday night meeting and will be on AFL Grand Final Eve.
The $2 million weight-for-age feature has attracted a crack field of sprinters led by I Wish I Win and boom three-year-old Growing Empire.
For our thoughts on every horse, check out our comprehensive 2024 Ladbrokes Manikato Stakes preview below. (Prices current at time of publish)
1. I Wish I Win (12)
Price: $4.50
The multiple G1 winning gelding returned in great order last start in the G1 Moir Stakes.
The 1000m trip was too sharp for him but he signaled that he’s in for a big Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival campaign by savaging the line from the back to finish 1.06 lengths fifth.
There was a doubt on his ability of handling the tighter Moonee Valley circuit, but he emphatically ticked off that box.
The Moody & Coleman-trained son of Savabeel will appreciate the rise to 1200m and boasts a great record over the distance of three wins and six placings from nine starts with one of those wins coming in last year’s G1 T.J. Smith Stakes.
You can bank on him running a ripping race given he’s one of the most consistent horses in the land with an impressive 19 top three finishes from 22 races.
Unfortunately, he will start from barrier 12 of 13 but there looks to be good speed in the race which will aid his chances and allow him to produce a booming finish.
2. Veight (9)
Price: $11.00
The Team McEvoy gelding returns to the races for the first time since winning his first G1 title, the George Ryder Stakes during the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival.
While that was over 1600m, the talented four-year-old is no slouch over this sprint particularly when fresh.
The son of Grunt is undefeated in three first-up races including wins in the G3 McNeil Stakes and G2 Australia Stakes.
The Australia Stakes was over this course and distance, and he defeated Southport Tycoon and Recommendation who he meets here.
I’m expecting a bold showing with top jockey Damian Lane in the saddle.
3. Recommendation (5)
Price: $13.00
The five-year-old gelding enters his second G1 race in cracking form having won all three of his races this preparation.
He kicked things off with a massive seven-length win in the G3 Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield before leading all the way in the Bletchingly Stakes.
It’s been 24 days since the Ciaron Maher-trained five-year-old won The Heath, so he’s been back to the trials and turned in an impressive piece of work.
He’s a previous winner over this course and distance and should give a big sight as he goes forward.
The question will be whether he can hold off these G1 quality sprinters late.
4. Southport Tycoon (3)
Price: $18.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained son of Written Tycoon returned in good order last start in the G3 Show County Quality at Randwick where he found the line well for a four-length fifth to Joliestar.
He’s since had a trial that will have brought him along nicely second-up.
Last preparation the four-year-old went within a nose of winning the G2 Caulfield Autumn Stakes second-up before winning the G1 Australian Guineas.
There’s no doubting he’s a quality galloper but he may find these a bit too sharp and connections will be looking that this run tops him off for the G1 Epsom Handicap next start.
5. Johnny Rocker (13)
Price: $27.00
The Nick Ryan-trained son of Jukebox enjoyed a nice run first-up in the Moir Stakes, but he weakened late to finish 2.1 lengths ninth.
That was likely to happen over the unsuitable 1000m trip given the Manikato Stakes was always going to be his target second-up.
A trial following the Moir Stakes will have topped him up nicely as he gets to his pet trip.
It’s hard to forget his career peak performance last preparation when he gave last year’s Manikato Stakes winner Imperatriz a massive scare when finishing a head second in the G1 William Reid Stakes over this course and distance.
While he will no doubt improve considerably second-up, I don’t think it will be enough to win this G1 especially with him starting from the outside barrier.
6. Caballus (8)
Price: $31.00
One of the outsiders of the field and it’s hard to argue with the price setters when his rating is 27 points less than I Wish I Win and they carry the same weight.
The Bjorn Baker-trained four-year-old settled at the tale of the field in the Moir Stakes first-up and just couldn’t keep up.
He did work to the line strongly without passing a runner to suggest he needed further which he gets here.
Last preparation he won the G3 Eskimo Prince Stakes and ran on strongly when 1.8 lengths third to Estriella in the Inglis Sprint, both races were over this distance but it’s doubtful that’s good enough to be competitive here.
7. Chain Of Lightning (4)
Price: $26.00
The Moody & Coleman mare found them too slick when resuming in the Moir Stakes.
She’ll have come on since that run and boasts an impressive second-up record of three wins from five starts including the G3 Birthday Card Stakes last preparation.
Connections will be praying that it rains as she grows a leg in the wet which she proved when winning the G1 T.J. Smith Stakes on a heavy Randwick.
She’ll enjoy a nice run for Ethan Brown, but a place looks best for her.
8. Estriella (10)
Price: $7.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained mare looked ready to produce a big first-up performance in the Moir Stakes following two highly impressive jump outs.
Unfortunately, she drew wide and never got on the track, racing three-deep outside the lead but to her credit she fought bravely to finish just under a length fourth.
The daughter of I Am Invincible will be fitter second-up and did win the Inglis Sprint over this distance when having her second run last preparation.
She’s drawn a touch sticky again, but she should be able to find a forward position easier with the rise to 1200m.
She will look the winner at some stage, but I think she may be suspect late particularly if she has to work in the run.
9. Kimochi (6)
Price: $20.00
The Gary Portelli-trained mare returned in great order in the G3 Toy Show Quality where she fought bravely to win despite racing wide throughout.
The daughter of Brave Smash is showing the benefits of a decent break with jockey Jason Collett noting after her last start win that she’s developed into a powerhouse.
She was one of the most consistent three-year-olds last season but didn’t win out of turn so it will be interesting to see how she progresses this time in work.
Given she is yet to win at this level, I’m happy to take a wait and see approach.
10. Climbing Star (11)
Price: $31.00
Phillip Stokes’ Zoustar mare returns to the races for the first time since a very fruitful Adelaide Autumn Racing campaign.
The five-year-old was a dominant winner first-up in the Listed Matrice Stakes before going down to Bendetta by just a neck in the R.N. Irwin Stakes.
She was given a peach of a ride in the G1 Robert Sangster Stakes by Lachlan Niendorf to come from the back and win and finished her preparation with a hard fought third in the G1 Goodwood.
She’s had two jump outs leading into this first-up assignment and races well fresh.
The wide barrier is far from ideal, but she seems well over the odds and could surprise by running into a placing if they go hard in front.
11. Coleman (1)
Price: $12.00
The Matt Laurie-trained colt gave a good account of himself first-up when finishing 1.4 lengths sixth in the Moir Stakes.
Given his trial and jump out work was a touch lacklustre, he’ll no doubt come on big time second-up.
It should be noted that his only failure came when second-up in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes last preparation.
However, the son of Pierata also won the G3 Chairman’s Stakes over 1000m at Caulfield first-up before third place finishes in the G3 Pago Pago Stakes and G1 Sires’ Produce Stakes as well as going within a head of winning the G1 Golden Slipper.
He’s drawn the inside barrier which may be a negative given he could find himself trapped on the fence with nowhere to go.
12. Growing Empire (7)
Price: $4.60
Ciaron Maher’s exciting three-year-old has won four of his five career starts but faces his biggest test to date in Friday’s Manikato Stakes.
The Zoustar colt started his career in infamous fashion by dropping his jockey and going through the outside fence after finishing a nose second on debut.
At his second start he won a Listed race over this course and distance by two lengths before braining his rivals in the G3 Breeders’ Stakes at Morphettville.
He was sent for a spell after that and recently returned with an effortless win in the G3 McNeil Stakes where he came from off the speed.
Last start he proved too strong in the Listed Poseidon Stakes down the Flemington straight.
He maps to get the run of the race and with just 52kg on his back, he could prove hard to run down.
13. Hayasugi (2)
Price: $5.50
The Clinton McDonald-trained filly took all before her last preparation, going through the Blue Diamond series undefeated, claiming the G3 Blue Diamond Preview first-up, the G2 Blue Diamond Prelude and then the Blue Diamond Stakes.
Unfortunately, nothing went right in the G1 Golden Slipper as it would have topped off a truly brilliant campaign.
The daughter of Royal Meeting could not have been more impressive when resuming in the Moir Stakes where she stormed home to finish a half-length second.
She’ll strip fitter and the rise to 1200m looks ideal.
The only negative could be barrier 2 given she’ll get back in the run and there’s the potential to get boxed in, but if she gets clear air then she’ll be awfully hard to stop with 50kg.
The Judgement
What a cracking edition of the Ladbrokes Manikato Stakes this is set to be!
It may be astute to stake each of my top four selections to win but I can only select one horse on top and that’s I Wish I Win.
His run first-up in the Moir Stakes was unreal with him registering the meeting’s best closing splits to finish just 1.1 lengths behind Mornington Glory.
He’ll have come on since that run and the rise to 1200m is ideal.
Obviously, a closer draw would be preferrable, but the wider gate can work in his favour if he’s able to find cover as it will allow him to get to the outside and let down like he was fired from a cannon.
He’s the one true proven performer at this level and I think he can win this on his way to The Everest.
Selections:
1st – I Wish I Win (1)
2nd – Hayasugi (13)
3rd – Growing Empire (12)
4th – Veight (2)