Looking for Saturday’s best roughies? Ladbrokes unveils our expert long-shot selections from tracks across the country!
Punters that took our The Quokka roughie selections last weekend will have cleaned up with Headwall running second as our Value Each Way tip, while we were on the money backing the overpriced Generosity for a Place!
This weekend, Group 1 racing at Morphettville continues with the Group 1 South Australian Derby, and we’re here to find the value in the time-honoured staying showdown.
Plus, we take a look at the Eagle Farm and Hawkesbury cards to unearth the underrated selections in some of the Group races as we count down to the winter majors.
Ready to take on the odds this Saturday? Read on as value hunter Lucy Henderson provides her underestimated picks of the week!
Hawkesbury Race 6 (2:15PM AEST) – Group 3 $250,000 Hawkesbury Guineas (1400m)
EACH WAY: 2. SNITZANOVA ($8.50 at time of publish)
Snitzanova is a filly boasting genuine Each Way claims in the Hawkesbury Guineas. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Snapping up a good price on the resuming SNITZANOVA (8) from the Ciaron Maher stables with this lovely Snitzel filly ticking plenty of boxes to beat home the boys fresh.
The up-and-comer was huge in the spring when claiming the Group 2 Sandown Guineas on Heavy going to make it three on the trot.
Things didn’t go her way at the Gold Coast in January’s Magic Millions 2YO Classic when 12th on a Good rated track, albeit still only four lengths off the winner Bosustow. That form was franked with Bosustow running a nice Group 1 second in New Zealand at his latest.
This filly will relish returning on rain affected ground and looked the goods in a recent winning trial at Newcastle.
Ashley Morgan comes aboard from a mid-field draw (8) with options.
Conditions to suit.
Could salute.
Hawkesbury Race 7 (2:50PM AEST) – Group 3 $250,000 Hawkesbury Crown (1300m)
PLACE: 6. THALASSOPHILE ($27 at time of publish)
Thalassophile could give the Hawkesbury Crown a shake-up at a price this weekend. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
The Heavy track opens up this year’s Hawkesbury Crown, and a forgotten chance to run in the money when resuming here is THALASSOPHILE (10) who is a genuine wet tracker.
Chris Waller’s six-year-old daughter of Not A Single Doubt thrives on Heavy going (6:3-0-3) and will appreciate conditions to suit first-up.
She has won fresh in the past and was strong late to round out her last prep with back-to-back thirds in Listed company.
At her latest she was in the money behind subsequent Group 1 Australian Cup runner-up Deny Knowledge in the Grafton Cup back in July of 2024.
Obviously, the lengthy let-up is the query and how she comes back from so long on the sidelines will be key. But Waller never runs a horse that isn’t right.
Rachel King in the saddle is another plus.
Will likely need the run but there’s value here if she comes back fit and firing.
Eagle Farm Race 7 (3:33PM AEST) – Group 2 $350,000 Queensland Guineas (1600m)
PLACE: 5. BEAU DAZZLER ($27 at time of publish)
BEAU DAZZLER (3) resuming in the Queensland Guineas looks overs for mine for a good first-up showing with the Tony & Maddysen Sears trained colt having gone out a back-to-back winner in December.
He was huge on a bottomless Heavy (10) track here over 1800m to blitz his rivals in the Group 3 Grand Prix by nearly three lengths. He backed that up carting 60kg to an equally impressive win at the same track over further (2100m) on December 28 on a Good (4) to prove his versatility.
While yet to kick off a campaign in winning form, his 50% winning strike rate at the course and a nice gate three draw for regular rider Jag Guthmann-Chester puts him in the finish late.
Will benefit from the run and shapes-up as a Derby shot, but a mile shouldn’t be too sharp to get things going.
This horse and his hoop have a commanding record together, and I see him doing some strong work the closing stages making him a value Place chance.
Eagle Farm Race 8 (4:13PM AEST) – Group 2 $300,000 Victory Stakes (1200m)
EACH WAY: 11. KING KAPA ($14 at time of publish)
KING KAPA (4) is an ultra-consistent six-year-old Capitalist gelding running in the weekend’s Victory for ace local horseman Tony Gollan.
The galloper has a solid strike-rate at the track and trip (7:2-1-1) and is one who will enjoy the sting out of the ground with rain around in Brisbane.
He has won two of his last three going back to late February and brings in the confidence of a last start win here in the Listed Ascot Handicap (1000m) from April 19.
Runs look to be spaced ideally and he’s reaching peak form now.
Cejay Graham knows this horse well and sticks with from a favourable gate four draw.
Does rise from 56kg to 58.5kg but was brave in defeat two back at the start of April under a length off Compelling Truth over the six-furlongs with 60kg off a gutsy on speed run with the heavy weight.
Back up to that trip suits after he made up ground from midfield to win by a neck in the shorter event last time.
Won’t be far away.
Morphettville Race 8 (4:35PM AEST) – Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m)
EACH WAY: 4. AMERICAN WOLF ($8 at time of publish)
American Wolf boasts claims at the 2025 SA Derby trophy this Saturday. Photo: Ultimate Racing Photos.
Value runner AMERICAN WOLF (10) ticks all the right boxes for an open SA Derby.
Bred for stamina, this Kiwi-bred Tivaci gelding has already proven his staying prowess with a win up to 2800m.
The 2500m trip will suit him perfectly after his recent VRC St Leger victory at Flemington.
While his previous jockey John Allen rides the favourite, the booking of the in-form Mark Zahra, fresh off a Group 1 double at this track, is a major plus.
Trained by Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young and chasing a hat-trick, he gets an ideal run from barrier 11 with a set weight of 56.5kg.
Peak fitness now and is the dour stayer not to overlook.
He’s a massive contender and will be there when it counts!
Happy punting!