Read on for our Underdog’s Guide to the Ladbrokes Cox Plate: Long Shot Nominations Worth a Second Look!
The early nominations for the 2025 Ladbrokes Cox Plate were released last week and, with a record prize fund of $6 million on offer, the competition is fiercer than ever for “The Race Where Legends Are Made”.
Last week, we shared our list of potential Caulfield Cup roughies in early betting, and now our focus turns to Moonee Valley’s weight-for-age championship – a race known for highlighting some of the greatest champions in Australasian horse racing history.
Although Chris Waller’s impressive mare Via Sistina, who dominated the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sport” by eight lengths last year, appears the favourite to win again, there are a few other horses further down the betting markets that have caught our attention.
Via Sistina wasn’t the favourite for her outstanding performance, she was the $5 second elect behind Japan’s Prognosis ($3.40) who ran a brave but distant second.
Romantic Warrior ($3.60 in 2023) was the last favourite in Cox Plate betting to win for the punters, while Dundeel (8th in 2013) was the last top fancy to finish worse than third.
However, overall, the Cox Plate favourites only have a 41% strike rate, providing a better than 50-50 chance statistically that there may be value outside of Via this October.
Cox Plate history is littered with upsets including both Leonard (1946) and Mosaic (1939) who still hold the record for the longest-priced winners, both storming home to victory at 50/1 odds.
Another notable upset occurred in the 2040m showdown when 16/1 shot Super Impose won the the “Trainwreck” 1992 Cox Plate, remembered as the most chaotic 125 seconds in the race’s history.
The even-money favourite, Naturalism, collapsed mid-race, causing a train reaction of interference. In the middle of all that madness, old timer Super Impose came out of nowhere and snatched the win right under everyone’s noses. Nobody saw it coming from the eight-year-old with all those big-name champs in the running.
Fast-forward to 2003, and it was Fields Of Omagh who took the cake.
Nicknamed the “Pauper,” Fields of Omagh ($17) upset the heavily favoured Lonhro ($1.60), who was expected to win the Cox Plate and cap off his career. Trained by Tony McEvoy, Fields Of Omah came from behind to snatch the victory in a race that was meant to be Lonhro’s crowning moment.
So, while maybe only bad luck alone will see Via Sistina defeated in her title defence, it is always worth keeping an eye on the underdogs in the mix who could shape-up as genuine threats to the Cox Plate queen!
Ceolwulf (NZ) – Joseph Pride
Odds: $26
Why Watch:
This Tavistock gelding is five but already acting like the grizzled old man of the yard.
You’re getting 25/1 in the markets, which honestly feels like a bit of a steal considering his resume. We’re talking about a horse that’s banked $5.9 million and already snagged two Group 1s. That’s not pocket change.
While his best stuff came last October with back-to-back wins in the Epsom and King Charles III Stakes at Randwick over the mile, I’m sceptical to pigeonhole him. He’s got a solid record over 2000m (5:1-2-0) and I don’t see why he can’t handle the 2040m at The Valley.
His run in the Queen Elizabeth was better than it looks on paper, he had barrier 13 of 13 and still finished fifth only four lengths off Via Sistina. No disgrace there.
Pride’s plan is to keep an eye on how he’s travelling early in the spring, especially if stretching out beyond his comfort-zone mile asks a bit much.
But for my money? He looks ready for it.
Light Infantry Man (FR) – Ciaron Maher
Odds: $26
Why Watch:
French-bred, seven years old, and honestly – Light Infantry Man just keeps popping up on my radar for the spring.
I’m happy to put a line through his Queen Elizabeth 11th in the autumn. Go back and watch his races when the stars actually aligned for him, like his two-length romp home at HQ in the Group 1 Australian Cup.
He’s bagged a couple of Group 1s now and he’s not just making up the numbers against the big guns. Remember that All-Star Mile? He ran third behind Tom Kitten and the market basically slept on him.
And you can’t ignore Maher. The guy’s got the magic touch – if anyone can keep a horse firing, it’s him. Light Infantry Man doesn’t look like he’s ready to fade into the background just yet.
Came out here with a hefty price tag and a rep from Europe, missed out on the 2023 Cox Plate thanks to some drama in his first Aussie season, but he’s more than delivered since then.
This horse? Still got plenty in the tank.
Tom Kitten – Anthony & Sam Freedman
Odds: $26
Why Watch:
Tom Kitten’s rolling into this season as a five-year-old and you can just tell he’s about to hit his sweet spot for Godolphin. He’s textbook peak age for a stellar middle-distance campaign, and has the grit and bloodlines to show his star status this time in.
The way he handled himself against top-class WFA horses over 2000m last prep? That’s the sort of thing you want to see if you’re dreaming Cox Plate dreams.
He’s not some rookie anymore, and the fact he ran third in the Queen Elizabeth as a four-year-old is a sure sign he’ll only get better.
Let’s not forget he smoked Mr Brightside home in the All-Star Mile.
Pay attention to this tomcat!
Read more on the Spring Carnival potential of Tom Kitten in our exclusive – The Spring Prospect Watchlist: From Lap Cat to Track Star!
Autumn Boy – Chris Waller
Odds: $26
Why Watch:
There’s plenty of buzz around this three-year-old who has an exciting profile.
With Chris Waller steering the ship you know, if accepted into the field, he won’t just be there to make up the numbers.
I think he’ll develop significantly this season and give his older rivals including stablemate Via Sistina a bit of a shake up.
Coming into the spring this unbeaten stakes-winning The Autumn Sun colt is still green. But with his early-season dominance and pedigree, he showed plenty of ability winning the Listed Tatt’s Stakes at Eagle Farm over 1400m by nearly two lengths in the winter suggesting he could handle the step up to WFA competition over 2040m.
Could this kid crash the Cox Plate party?
Evaporate (NZ) – Ben, Will & JD Hayes
Odds: $51
Why Watch:
With his racing style and bloodlines, this Per Incanto four-year-old is screaming a potential huge value Cox Plate contender.
He’s got the engine and upside for 2000m, and Moonee Valley is his pet track where he boasts three wins from four starts. The tight turns aren’t to everyone’s liking so being a The Valley specialist counts for a lot.
Anyone who remembers last year’s Cox Plate knows he got forced back in the pack at a crucial stage to finish ninth (dead last) behind Via Sistina who basically lapped her rivals. But that was right after his nice third in the Caulfield Guineas behind Private Life, so you know the ability’s there.
He was runner-up across the Tasman in The Kiwi behind Damask Rose who got the better run on the day before getting confidence back in Sydney’s Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes putting two lengths on Swiftfalcon.
Untapped and can go to the next level now.
Read more on why Evaporate is firmly on our radar in our – The Spring Prospect Watchlist: The Rising Star With Plenty of Gas!
Adelaide River (IRE) – Kris Lees
Odds: $51
Why Watch:
Kris Lees’ Irish-bred Australia gelding looks an underrated contender that could add to the strong record of international expats in the Cox Plate.
He is a three-time Group 1 placegetter overseas from earlier in his career including in the Irish Derby of 2023.
During last year’s spring campaign, he showed promise including a fourth at big odds behind Deny Knowledge in the Group 1 Might And Power at Caulfield over 2000m when sticking with the task.
Hasn’t raced since but has looked the goods winning three winter trials. If he can reignite his best European form, he has the potential to cause a major upset.
Think he’ll adapt well to the unique Moonee Valley track and could serve up something special for Goliath owner Lloyd Williams.
Willydoit (NZ) – Ciaron Maher
Odds: $101
Why Watch:
Now trained by the formidable Ciaron Maher stable, Willydoit is a rising talent.
Maher is a master at preparing his horses for the big races, and a nomination for a horse at odds of 100/1 from his stable is always worth a second look.
The Tarzino four-year-old has won four of his seven starts to date up to 2400m and has a Group 1 NZ Derby trophy in his suitcase.
The Kiwi expat’s sole Aussie start had him running fourth behind runaway winner Aeliana in the Australian Derby but that was before Maher got his hands on him.
I’d say, watch this space. If Willydoit starts showing a bit of early spring form, don’t be shocked to see his Cox Plate price slashed.
Could end up being one of those “I told you so” futures bets.
Point King (IRE) – Anthony & Sam Freedman
Odds: $101
Why Watch:
There’s a long way to go between now and Cox Plate Day and Point King could prove a sneaky chance proven at The Valley if he’s kept fresh enough for the 2040m.
Team Freedman’s Zoffany gelding may be seven-years-old, but he remains very lightly raced with only a dozen starts. He’s won five of those and placed second twice, so the consistency is there.
The Irish import won back-to-back races in Melbourne last year including a 3.75 length romp home when debuting for the stable at Moonee Valley over the Cox Plate track and trip.
Went on to win the Group 3 Archer Stakes at HQ in the mud before a Group 3 The Bart Cummings second when targeting last year’s Melbourne Cup.
Unfortunately for connections the Cup dream was dashed a week out from the big race when he was a shock withdrawal, and he hasn’t been seen since last October.
Not 100% sure what the stable’s spring target will be, but his proven ability over 2040m at The Valley suggests he could be a smoky Cox Plate contender should they pivot toward weight-for-age targets.
Sepals – Cliff Brown
Odds: $101
Why Watch:
Cliff Brown’s Mornington based Calyx four-year-old is an interesting one to follow into the spring whose 3YO campaign showed plenty of fight.
He knocked off three 1400m wins including absolutely torching them in Flemington’s Group 3 CS Hayes by a runaway 3.25 length margin in the summer-autumn.
He was then thrown straight into tougher grade running over the mile at HQ in the Group 1 Australian Guineas, and he handled himself well crossing fourth only a couple of lengths off Feroce. Feroce also ran in the CS Hayes (3rd), so that form line’s looking pretty legit.
Sure, there’s a laundry list of “ifs” hanging over his head this prep – The Valley, the distance – but he’s looked sharp at the jump-outs back home and gets a crack at the Group 2 P.B. Lawrence first-up, which will tell us plenty.
He’ll be a likely improver, looks a rising star and holds a nomination so, if he handles the extra ground and the deeper water, don’t be surprised if punters start piling on and his price tightens up.
He’s flying under the radar for now but is one to keep tabs on.
La Crique (NZ) – Simon Alexander
Odds: $101
Why Watch:
Kiwi visitor La Crique, who is also in Caulfield Cup calculations, is one I’ve got earmarked for the spring down under, and she’s been completely left alone by punters.
Her 2000m record remains impressive (4:0-3-1) despite not having recorded a win over the distance. You can set a watch to her class and consistency at home ever since she kicked off in NZ back in 2021.
She almost pinched the Group 1 NZ Derby as the 2022 runner-up, won a Group 1 over a mile across the ditch that prep by four lengths, and didn’t disgrace herself that spring in Australia running fourth only 1.25 lengths off Icebath in the Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes at Flemington.
And yet, punters seem allergic to her. Makes zero sense to me. She keeps racking up Group 1 placings every time she steps out, especially between 1600m and 2000m – prime Cox Plate territory.
I can’t understand her price and am more than happy to throw some early money her way.
They might not be topping the early markets, but these Cox Plate hopefuls bring serious firepower and credentials to handle The Valley’s testing 2040m classic.
Flying under the radar for now, their pedigree, performance, and backing from top stables make them genuine threats to shake up the weight-for-age championship this spring.
Don’t forget to check out our The Punters’ Playbook: The Valley Spring Carnival Deep Dive for the inside word on the jockeys, trainers and races to watch over the following months!
All Cox Plate odds quoted are all-in from Ladbrokes, correct at time of publish and subject to change at any time without notice.