Read on for Ladbrokes Underdog’s Guide to the Caulfield Guineas: Long Shot Nominations Worth a Second Look!
The stallion-making 2025 Caulfield Guineas is set to run on October 11 and this week the 119 early entries heading towards the $3 million classic were revealed.
While there were not a great deal of upsets in the early history of this mile showdown, that all changed in 2017 with Mighty Boss showing his rivals what’s what as a triple-figure champion at $101.
More recently in 2023 Griff got the job done as a $31 outside in Caufield Guineas betting so watching for the early roughies can prove profitable.
With plenty of emerging gallopers to consider, Ladbrokes have done the hard work for our loyal punters and uncovered the Top 10 roughies in early betting that could prove this season’s surprise package.
HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT – Chris Waller
Odds: $15 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: One of the best early roughies for three-time Caulfield Guineas winning trainer Waller, this I Am Invincible colt has me convinced he’ll be more competitive than his price suggests. His only win from four starts to date was at Gosford back in May but he showed both his mile and Group 1 potential in the winter running a length back second to Cool Archie in Eagle Farm’s JJ Atkins (1600m). Has been trialling well in Sydney ahead of his three-year-old season which begins at Rosehill on Saturday in the Group 2 Run To The Rose. He faces a tough first-up assignment against plenty of fitter rivals from wide out but watch for him in the finish.
REGAL AWARD – Phillip Stokes
Odds: $17 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: Ole Kirk gelding Regal Award had his all-in price slashed from $51 to $17 after an ultra-impressive second-up win at Sandown Hillside over 1300m on September 10. Breaking his maiden status at his third start he easily accounted for the field with 58kg to win by 2.25 lengths showing an impressive turn of foot and looks one that will see out a mile without issue. He ran the quickest as a 3YO maiden winner over the course since 2010, so you know the late speed is there. Stokes is confident in the youngster’s upside tipping improvement as he gets out over further and he’s got the kind of progression pending you like to see for a Guineas bid.
AUTUMN MYSTERY – Rory Hunter
Odds: $26 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: This well-tried and nicely-bred The Autumn Sun gelding for Mornington’s Rory Hunter may be a maiden after seven starts but he looks on the improve this prep. He was ninth in the Group 1 Blue Diamond in February at 40/1 4.5 lengths off Devil Night when stuck with the outside alley (15), and he has had three runs since. At his latest two he posted back-to-back seconds at Sandown Lakeside and Bendigo, the latter when three-quarters of a length beaten as the odds-on fancy due to a Heavy (9) track. He looks furnished and has shown glimpses of being a high-class stayer that would appreciate a fast-paced affair if the speed is on. Just needs to get that first win on the board to get the confidence up.
DEVIL NIGHT – Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes
Odds: $26 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: Team Hawkes’ Group 1 Blue Diamond champ from the autumn is a classy Extreme Choice colt looking to break the hoodoo of Diamond winners coming back for another elite level win as a 3YO. First-up he was fifth behind a fit horse in Raging Force in the Group 3 San Domenico with his jockey Tyler Schiller saying he did a good job after getting “stuck on the back of the wrong horse” putting a stop to his momentum. He finished off well, will appreciate more distance and gets the chance to finish closer this weekend in the Run To The Rose. I like him at the Caulfield track and wouldn’t underrate him just yet.
BEIWACHT – Chris Waller
Odds: $26 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: Another Waller runner oozing Caulfield Guineas potential, he’s a son of three-time Group 1 champ and The Everest runner-up Bivouac who won a Golden Rose as a 3YO. This colt won February’s Group 2 Silver Slipper by over two lengths, a race Wodeton ran third in, but slipped up later that prep unplaced in his next two including his disappointing Golden Slipper ninth. Came back and ran out of his skin at a big price in the San Domenico, which looks a great form race this year. Jockey Adam Hyeronimus gave him a huge wrap after the run saying he loved the way he’s come back. He looks like he’s really starting to put it together now showing early maturity, gets another go in the Run To The Rose on Saturday from a good gate, and I think he’ll do something big this prep.
ARCORA – Trent Busuttin & Natlie Young
Odds: $51 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: Justify colt Arcora didn’t hit any real goals as a two-year-old including finishing well back nearly 11 lengths off Vinrock in the Group 2 VRC Sires’ in the autumn, but I think he’s one crying out for more distance. He might even be too dour for the 1600m after he won at Flemington in the winter over 1800m to shrug off his maiden tag. That said, with the right preparation he could outrun them in the Guineas at any old price. Looking forward to seeing what he does first-up at HQ this weekend in the Listed Exford Plate. He’s already booked his VRC Derby ticket, so maybe he can pick up something else along the way!
STAY COSMIC – Phillip Stokes
Odds: $51 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: The second of our early roughie selections for Stokes, this Cosmic Force rig has performed solidly so far with a win and three seconds from four starts. Fresh he came within a half-length of Rosberg in the Listed McKenzie Stakes at The Valley where he closed hard and hit the line well. That sharp improvement put him in the frame for the Golden Rose and potentially then the Guineas where he could absolutely relish the mile.
MISS CELINE – Ben, Will & JD Hayes
Odds: $51 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: Fillies don’t really win this race and just two are nominated to try in 2025, so the fact the Lindsay Park team has even thrown this daughter of Magnus’s name into the ring speaks volumes. The Blue Diamond performance by the last-to-first Debutant Stakes winner at the course was disappointing but she went on to finish just 2.3 lengths off McGaw in the $1 million VOBIS Showdown at the same track and trip at her next start shrugging off the flop. She has had two starts this time in for a first-up third to Cherish Me at The Valley and then a fourth behind a nice type in Alpha Sofie in the Listed Atlantic Jewel. Not far off the first three in a brave run, she’s showing early-season form, but does she have the class for a Group 1 run against the boys or is she better targeting the Flight Stakes and Thousand Guineas? Time will tell.
GRAND PRAIRIE – Peter Snowden
Odds: $101 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: A genuine outsider at 100/1 in the markets, Snowden’s Grand Prairie has already been up for a while so expecting him to continue onto the Guineas in October could be a task which explains the price. Still, he is one worth throwing a few dollars at in the futures markets just in case as he’s a proven performer who rarely runs a bad race. He’s finished out of the money just once in his six starts at time of publish, was strong on a Heavy Rosehill track when runner-up in the Listed Rosebud then won the Group 3 Up & Coming at his latest. Runs again as an underrated threat to Autumn Boy in the Group 3 Ming Dynasty Quality over 1400m this weekend and if he shows up in that he won’t last at triple-figures.
FERMOY – Chris Waller
Odds: $101 (at time of publish)
Why Watch: Our other outside selection at blowout early Guineas odds is Fermoy who has the pedigree to potentially show up and shut down the doubters. Waller’s Zoustar colt has had five runs and remains winless currently, but he looks to be getting the hang of things now – he just needs to realise his own potential! Fresh at Rosehill over 1300m in the mud he was under a length off Ninja before finishing next best narrowly beaten in the Up & Coming – which is a Sydney race that often leads well into the Guineas down south. I never want to look too far past a Waller trained youngster with upside, especially one that the stable also has entered for the Ladbrokes Cox Plate!
They might not be the ones everyone’s talking about, but these up-and-coming runners have the form and the pedigree to make this year’s Caulfield Guineas interesting.
Don’t forget to check out our The Punters’ Playbook: Caulfield Spring Carnival Deep Dive for the inside word on the jockeys, trainers and races to watch over the following months!
All Caulfield Guineas odds quoted are all-in from Ladbrokes, correct at time of publish and subject to change at any time without notice.