Saturday’s sleepers could surprise – Ladbrokes has the roughies worth a second look!
We had a few genuine gallopers last weekend that finished off well but ultimately missed out on a Top 4 position until our Moir Stakes roughie Golden Boom ran huge just behind the first three giving value to those that followed our Group 1 exotic tip at The Valley.
The weekend’s racing action is top-class including Via Sistina and Aeliana facing off for round two in a six-horse but star-studded edition of the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes at HQ.
Outside of the top two we’ve found a nice value place chance making his delayed spring return that could give the mares a run for their money.
Sticking at Flemington and there’s a quality mare at huge odds getting around in a Group 2 we cannot go past, while we’ve got a potential Lexus Stakes upset pending from a $8.50 pop.
Heading north to Sydney and the Run To The Roses Day card may be without a Group 1 event but that’s no reflection of the talent on show, and we’ve got the value runners at Rosehill to back before word catches on.
The Value Whisperer Lucy Henderson’s back with her best Saturday roughie picks, and trust us, these long shots are worth a look.
Flemington Race 7 (3:40PM AEST) – Group 3 $300,000 Lexus Archer Stakes (2500m)
No. 6 Jennivamoose ($8.50 at time of publish)
It’s a competitive edition of the Lexus Archer Stakes, with several stayers eyeing the coveted Melbourne Cup ballot exemption, but it’s hard to overlook the consistency and form of JENNIVAMOOSE (6) from the Ciaron Maher stable.
The six-year-old mare by Vadamos arrives in winning form, having claimed three of her last four starts — including back-to-back victories at The Valley. Her latest win on August 23 saw her narrowly defeat the better-weighted Muktamil over 2500m in a Quality Handicap, and she lines up here on the same 54kg with regular rider Harry Coffey sticking from a midfield draw.
She’s proven over the trip with a strong 2500m record (3:2-1-0), and while this is her first look at Flemington, she’s fit, in form, and has shown she can finish powerfully from the back.
Coffey is unbeaten aboard her, and with the mare chasing a hat-trick, she looks a genuine contender to secure a spot in the Cup.
Can win again.
Rosehill Race 8 (4:00PM AEST) – Group 2 $300,000 Run To The Rose (1200m)
No. 6 Skyhook ($10 at time of publish)
SKYHOOK (3) is one of the forgotten runners in a very deep edition of the Golden Rose lead-up and out to double-figures now so really appeals as an Each Way play as he prepares to take on the likes of RAGING FORCE and WODETON who ran one-two in the San Domenico.
This horse comes via a different lead-up having won the Listed The Rosebud in the mud first-up and is fitter for that impressive mid-August success when carting 60.5kg to beat subsequent Up & Coming Stakes champ Grand Prairie home by a half-length.
He’ll relish coming back to 57kg here, is two-from-three at the circuit having also won the Group 3 Pago Pago in the autumn by a runaway 3.24 lengths on a Good (3) and gets firming ground to really show what he’s made of.
Kerrin McEvoy retains the ride and they’re drawn for a dream run from barrier three.
Can give this a shake-up.
Flemington Race 8 (4:20PM AEST) – Group 1 $750,000 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m)
No. 2 Tom Kitten ($10 at time of publish)
TOM KITTEN (6) finally returns to the track, and there’s plenty of buzz around his rescheduled first-up run. The five-year-old Godolphin galloper was a late scratching at the gates in the Memsie, but now makes his official debut for the Anthony & Sam Freedman stable.
He jumps straight into a mile — the same track and trip where he famously beat Mr B in the All-Star Mile back in March. He wrapped up that prep with a strong third in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m), finishing just 2.5 lengths off Via Sistina.
Barrier six poses no issue in a small field, and with Ben Melham aboard, he looks well set for a bold showing. While there’s a question mark over how sharp he’ll be fresh, his class is undeniable, and he shapes as excellent value for a Top 4 finish.
From midfield, he could easily emerge as the sleeper in this lineup — and if he’s anywhere near his best, he’s right in the mix against the WFA superstars.
For more on the carnival ahead for Tom Kitten check out our The Spring Prospect Watchlist: From Lap Cat to Track Star!
Rosehill Race 9 (4:40PM AEST) – Group 2 $300,000 Theo Marks Stakes (1300m)
No. 7 El Castello ($26 at time of publish)
AUTUMN GLOW is the unbeaten mare and my top tip to win the Theo Marks Stakes, but she’s odds-on so looking for the value with the best roughies to add into exotics.
For value in a Same Race Multi to run Top 3 EL CASTELLO (8) for Joe Pride looks well overs coming in as a 25/1 outsider despite some excellent form last season from this now four-year-old.
He won first-up in September over 1400m at Warwick Farm and went on to take out his next three on the trot including the Group 3 Gloaming Stakes here at Rosehill as well as Randwick’s Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes.
Runs for the first time since his VRC Derby fifth from the outside barrier (16) and, while he’ll improve over further deeper into his campaign, he’s not with Place claims at a price.
No. 9 Leica Lucy ($18 at time of publish)
LEICA LUCY (3) is worth including in the Top 4, with the Chris Waller-trained mare bringing genuine class to the field as a New Zealand Derby winner.
She’s ultra-consistent with six wins from eight starts and was less than a length off Treasurethe Moment in the Group 1 ATC Oaks last time out — form that’s been franked with that mare’s strong showing in the Memsie.
Expect her to be finishing off strongly and right in the mix late.
Note: Lecia Lucy is a dual acceptor and also nominated for the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes (Flemington Race 9) on Saturday. Keep an eye on final scratchings to confirm which race she lines up in.
Flemington Race 9 (4:55PM AEST) – Group 2 $300,000 Let’s Elope Stakes (1400m)
No. 5 Wrote To Arataki ($21 at time of publish)
It’s a wide-open edition of the Let’s Elope Stakes, and there’s excellent second-up value in WROTE TO ARATAKI (7). The seasoned seven-year-old mare from the Matthew Williams yard was solid fresh, finishing midfield in the Group 3 Cockram Stakes at Caulfield — less than three lengths off Magic Time at long odds while carrying a big weight.
She’s got a strong second-up record, highlighted by a convincing win over this track and trip in the Frances Tressady Stakes earlier this year.
Now stepping up in distance and returning to Flemington — where she’s consistently placed — she also drops in weight, which suits her perfectly.
Underrated and flying under the radar in the market, Wrote To Arataki shapes as a genuine Each Way contender with the form, fitness, and setup to surprise.
Good luck punters!