Overs with impact – Ladbrokes Saturday roughies are lining up to deliver big value and bigger surprises across two stacked metrop race cards!
We uncovered some outstanding runners at huge odds last weekend including Geegees Mistruth who ran second in the Caulfield Sprint at a massive price and the Sydney Stakes third placegetter With Your Blessing.
Attention now turns to The Valley on Saturday where Via Sistina is out to defend her Ladbrokes Cox Plate crown, but we’ve found the value in the field to challenge the reigning queen.
We have all our Moonee Valley roughie selections plus the longshots to get behind across Randwick’s Spring Champion Stakes Day card including a juicy Each Way selection in the Sydney Group 1!
The Value Whisperer is back with her Saturday specials — Lucy Henderson’s got a few roughies in sight you won’t want to miss.
Moonee Valley Race 4 (1:50PM AEDT) – Group 2 $300,000 Fillies Classic (1600m)
No. 10 Sketch ($23 at time of publish)
I’m on ENVIABLE for the win in the Fillies Classic but at a huge price to add into Same Race Multis for a Top 4 run is SKETCH (2) who is drawn ideally and flies under the radar.
Anthony & Sam Freedman’s lightly raced daughter of Brazen Beau dons the iconic Royal Blue Godolphin silks and after two flat runs as a juvenile she showed great improvement in her 3YO debut on October 13.
It may have only been in a fillies’ maiden at Kilmore and she may not have won, but her second-place effort under a length beaten was solid.
Rises notably in distance and grade up to 1600m off a six-furlong run but she’s got a sense of timing about her, and I think she’s been crying out for a trip.
Jye McNeil comes aboard in a big plus and, while class wise she could be tested, I’m happy to suggest she can run better than the price.
Moonee Valley Race 7 (3:35PM AEDT) – Group 2 $400,000 Crystal Mile (1600m)
No. 6 El Rocko ($14 at time of publish)
EL ROCKO (8) goes around at a great price in an open Crystal Mile, and he shapes up as a genuine Top 3 chance for mine.
John Mcardle’s Fastnet Rock seven-year-old is a veteran lining-up in his 57th start but has kept producing strong runs suggesting he’s not done just yet.
In the winter he went back-to-back at Caulfield over the mile including defeating Too Darn Discreet who went on to turn the tables in the Listed Heatherlie Handicap.
Solid enough fresh mid-field in the Group 3 Sandown Stakes behind Evaporate – the form of which has been firmly franked with Evaporate a next-up second in the Toorak behind Transatlantic who came via a second in the Sandown Stakes.
Love those form lines.
This guy meanwhile went into the Listed Seymour Cup (1600m) and was only a half-length beaten from the outside alley after crossing to lead before fading late.
Sticks at his pet distance, Jamie Mott comes aboard in a smaller field, and he won his last start at the track when putting nearly three lengths on Chorlton Lane in a BM100 back in April.
Expect him to take up front running again and while he may struggle to hold that position all the way to the line I think he’s fit and going well enough to hold for a run in the money.
Randwick Race 7 (3:55PM AEDT) – Group 2 $1 million Callander-Presnell (1600m)
No. 6 Dusty Bay ($61 at time of publish)
A really tight top half of the markets in the Callander-Presnell with a number of in-form young guns who could take this out, but at blowout odds to run in the money behind the better fancied I think DUSTY BAY (8) has been overlooked.
Tracey Bartley’s progressive Sandbar gelding has won just one of his seven starts to date but has been working his way through the grades this time in and looks primed for a big performance.
He comes via a fourth to Ohope in the Tapp-Craig over 1400m at Rosehill at 150/1 showing his best form to cross under three lengths off the winner.
Up in distance he stuck on well and I think he will really enjoy the mile now.
Form around Nepotism – who takes on the older WFA stars in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate on Saturday – from the autumn and Alysha Collett stays in the saddle.
Not highly rated but I think he will continue to show improvement.
Randwick Race 8 (4:30PM AEDT) – Group 1 $2 million Spring Champion Stakes (1600m)
No. 13 The Pearls ($16 at time of publish)
One of four Waller runners in the feature Sydney race on Saturday and we’ll see THE PEARLS (1) jump from barrier one, a gate that recently produced Tom Kitten for his 2023 success.
This classy, Kiwi bred Proisir filly won at Hawkesbury to break her maiden status over 1500m on September 25 then headed to the Gloaming – which is a stepping-stone I like.
She went around at 60/1 and ran out of her skin to place second behind the two-length winner Shangri La Boy in a massive effort considering it was her first foray into Group grade.
To come from a Hawkesbury maiden and run so well is very promising – and promise is exactly what she’s started to show.
Untapped and ready to roll again, Tim Clark sticks with and if you fancy the Gloaming form then surely, she represents a bit of value.
Rising at the right time and the flashing finish last start suggests she’ll eat up the 2000m.
Expect her to stay close to the leaders on pace with enough in the tank to charge home.
The more I type the more I talk myself into her maybe even as an Each Way play!
Randwick Race 9 (5:15PM AEDT) – Group 2 $2 million The Invitation (1400m)
No. 4 Firestorm ($14 at time of publish)
FIRESTORM (8) is a classy type that can atone for her last start ninth in the Alan Brown Stakes when getting way too far back from barrier 16.
She did well to make up a bit of ground late and was only three lengths off Headley Grange in a forgivable run.
Looking more at her run fresh when finishing a length off Manaal in the Group 2 Golden Pendant which is more telling of her real abilities.
Found the line nicely that day having made up solid ground late and presents fitter third-up ready to produce a similar effort at Randwick.
She is without a top three finish from her trio of runs here to date, but even her Group 1 Doncaster 12th to Stefi Magnetica from the autumn was better than it reads on paper.
Third-up and ready to hit top gear, she’ll be spotting a few of these a decent head start but is back in slightly easier company now and will be hoping they go mad up front to set it up for her late burst.
If the tempo’s hot, she’s the one charging home over the top.
Moonee Valley Race 10 (5:40PM AEDT) – Group 1 $6 million Ladbrokes Cox Plate (2040m)
No. 9 Nepotism ($16 at time of publish)
I’m happy to throw young gun NEPOTISM (3) into my Same Race Multi selections for the 2025 Cox Plate as a cheeky Top 4 play.
The Hawkes camp knows how to place them, and this Brutal colt already has a Group 1 on the board from his two-year-old days in the Champagne Stakes.
He hasn’t quite hit those heights this prep, but there’s a stack of upside stepping up in trip.
His Caulfield Guineas run was better than it looks on paper with genuine excuses there, and now he drops a whopping 7.5kg to just 49.5kg with Zac Lloyd, who’s absolutely airborne, taking the ride.
Three-year-olds have a knack for shaking up the Cox Plate, and while winning might be a stretch, he’s got the engine to run a big race at juicy odds.
Happy punting!