Saturday’s Best Bets: Ladbrokes Form Analysts

DIFFERENT GRAVY (1) was exactly that last start when dominating a similar field to this in the Batman Stakes at Flemington.

The Henry Dwyer-trained gelding settled at the tail from the outside barrier before unleashing a blistering turn of foot to win by two lengths.

He’d been racing in excellent form before that with a Swan Hill maiden win and a nose second in the Hill Stakes at Morphettville.

The rise to 2000m looks ideal and I’d expect him to be hard to beat from a good draw.

CHAKADO (3) gave a great sight when resuming in The Subzero last start before being run down late to finish just under a length third.

The Phillip Stokes-trained gelding will have come on since that run and won over a mile at Cranbourne when second-up last preparation.

This is a massive drop in class and he’ll appreciate the rise in distance.

With the rail so far out, he could be advantaged by being the likely leader.

OVERPASS (1) will enjoy heading to his home away from home at Ascot when he lines up looking to win his third Winterbottom Stakes in a row.

The Bjorn Baker-trained gelding boasts an impressive record of four wins (2x Quokkas and 2x Winterbottoms) from five starts over the course and distance with his only defeat coming in this year’s Quokka when finishing fifth.

The key to the son of Vancouver producing his best is being kept fresh which he wasn’t in last time in Perth.

He has been freshened since producing an excellent performance in The Everest where he finished 1.48 lengths fourth to the world’s best sprinter Ka Ying Rising.

He’s drawn beautifully in barrier 3 and with the speed map suggesting he’ll enjoy an uncontested lead, he should prove hard to run down particularly if the track is on the firm side given the warm weather.

SHE’S A HUSTLER (14) takes on 2400m for the first time in the Zipping Classic but looks more than capable of handling it.

The Grahame Begg-trained mare started this preparation in great fettle with back-to-back wins including the Tesio Stakes.

She gave a super account of herself in trying conditions last start in the Matriarch Stakes where she took ground off a leader who got things to suit and finished 1.25 lengths second with four lengths to third.

She’s at peak fitness now and should enjoy a great run on speed for Jordan Childs who has won six of nine rides on her.

YORKSHIRE (10) can be forgiven for finishing last in The Hunter last start when suffering from cardiac arrythmia.

The O’Shea & Charlton-trained gelding looked set for a bold first-up showing following two very nice trials.

He has an abundance of upside and has started his career in fine style with six wins from nine starts.

He’ll strip fitter second-up and won his only previous start over this course and distance.

The Snitzel gelding should enjoy the run of the race from barrier 1.

• Top 2 – Overpass (1)         
• Top 2 – Joker’s Grin (2)         
• Top 4 – Luana Miss (11)

Look, I know $6 isn’t a big return for a Same Race Multi, but I really like the chances of this one hitting.

Just like Hendo, I’m targeting the Winterbottom Stakes, and I think there’s two main hopes in the race, Overpass and Joker’s Grin. You’ve already read why I think Overpass will win.

However, if there’s a chance of him being rolled, it will be by Joker’s Grin who won The Quokka earlier this year and has come back this preparation in fine style with two impressive wins.

I’m rounding out my SRM with Luana Miss. She’s a lightly-raced three-year-old filly on the way up and for that reason I’m prepared to overlook how poorly weighted she is. Watch the replay of her last start win in the Placid Ark Stakes from an impossible position if you need proof.

The Eclipse Stakes looks an excellent race for POISON CHALICE (5).

He has consistently performed above average and collected some nice wins across 23 starts since debuting, and after a solid midfield return in last month’s Gawler Cup, he caught the eye again with his run behind Apulia in the Chester Manifold Stakes on Oaks Day.

Stepping up in distance and being third-up, he should improve further, and he’ll benefit from carrying less weight than several key rivals in this contest.

BELLATRIX STAR (1) hasn’t raced for a year, but I felt the Doveton Stakes shaped as an ideal spot to kick off her new campaign.

The Star Witness mare was outstanding as a three-year-old last spring, stringing together three consecutive black-type wins, including the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes against older sprinters, before finishing second to Switzerland in the Coolmore.

She’s had a couple of trials to prepare for her return, and although she’s sure to come on from this run, her class should carry her a long way against this level of opposition.

He’s chasing an unprecedented third-consecutive victory in this race, and I think OVERPASS (1) can and will pull it off.

The Vancouver gelding is as tough as they come, and he gave a typically excellent sight first up in The Everest in October, ultimately finishing an impressive fourth.

He’s just been kept ticking over ahead of this race, he’ll go straight to the lead and make his own luck, and he’s just the best horse in the field again.

ALALCANCE (13) steps out third up and looks ready to make her mark in the Zipping Classic.

She rose to new heights during this year’s Autumn Carnival, stringing together three straight wins, highlighted by victories in the NE Manion Cup and the Chairman’s Handicap.

Her spring return in September’s Wyong Cup was a touch disappointing, prompting another break, but she came back with a solid run behind the impressive Sunset Park in the Group 2 Matriarch Stakes on Champions Day.

With expected improvement, a step up to 2400m, a lighter weight, and a favourable draw in gate 4, she shapes as a strong chance to be right in the finish again.

I’ve been with ACCREDITED (4) in both of his runs this prep, and I’m prepared to give him another chance when he lines up in the Festival Stakes.

He looked home first-up on Big Dance Day before being grabbed right on the line by Estadio Mestalla, and he again found the line strongly to finish a bit over half a length away in second in the Group 2 The Hunter.

Now third-up and stepping out to 1500m, the Festival Stakes shapes as an ideal black-type target for him, and the $9 available at the time of writing looks a generous quote in my opinion.

• No. 3 Lyles (Win)
• No. 1 King’s Secret (Top 3)
• No. 7 Snack Bar (Top 4)

LYLES (3) is unbeaten this time in and rates as a key winning chance again at Rosehill on Saturday.

His fresh performance to strike in BM72 company at Warwick Farm was full of merit, while he was nothing short of outstanding in record time up at Eagle Farm last time out.

He’s open to further improvement and can win again, so I’m going to select him as my winner and pump up my odds with resuming gallopers KING’S SECRET (1) and SNACK BAR (7) to finish in the first three and four respectively.

Both horses raced well in strong metro company last time in and have trialled up nicely ahead of Saturday’s return.

Unbeaten filly HOT AND HIGH (8) lands the dream draw as she makes her Ascot debut on Saturday. 

The daughter of Too Darn Hot barely raised a sweat at Belmont last start under Lucy Fiore, cruising into it down the middle before she was asked to go—and when she went, she put them away, strolling in by nearly three lengths. 

This is a tougher assignment stepping up in grade, but she’s got genuine gears and a sharp turn of foot. With only 53kg on her back, she’s the one they’ll all be chasing. 

MISSISSIPPI DAWN (15) has gone up at a tempting price for a mare who charged into the finish two weeks ago over this very trip. 

The Pierro mare was stiff not to place, buried in traffic turning for home before finally seeing daylight, and once she did, she quickened smartly to produce another honest run at 1800m. 

She’s been up since August, but the spaced-out campaign has kept her fresh enough, and there’s still upside to come—especially now she finally draws a single-digit gate for the first time since her Bunbury win four starts back. 

JOKERS GRIN (2) is a proper sprinter and certainly doesn’t look out of place in this field. 

The Maschino gelding announced himself in The Quokka back in April and hasn’t missed a beat since, rolling straight into the Prince of Wales and Colonel Reeves and winning both. His latest was a beauty, launching late to grab Oscar’s Fortune by half a length. 

The turn of foot is elite, and the sectionals say he’s still got another gear to find, particularly if he can dodge a wide run in transit. 

With Patrick Carbery having partnered him to eight of his nine victories, and the market firmly in his corner, he’s the in-form sprinter they all need to bring down. 

SHE’S A HUSTLER (14) gets out to 2400m for the first time after saving her best for late in the Matriarch Stakes last time out. 

Grahame Begg’s mare was beaten 1.25 lengths in the end but still made up good ground on the leader Sunset Park, showcasing some nice late speed over the final furlong or so. 

She’s hard fit now for three runs back this prep and has come up trumps at the barriers with Jordy Childs operating from barrier 3. If she’s up on the speed early, she’ll be hard to hold out again when it matters most.  

I’m leaning the way of ACCREDITED (4) in what shapes as a wide-open contest. 

The All Too Hard six-year-old is knocking on the door after a string of placings stretching back to July. His latest run at Newcastle had merit—held up at a key moment, forced to duck back to the inside, yet still closing to finish just three-quarters off Coal Crusher in The Hunter. 

Third-up looks the sweet spot, and the rise to 1500m is a big tick. He’s already pushed Robusto to the brink over this trip in the Winter Challenge, and he’ll relish every metre again here. 

• No. 1 Meridiana (Top 2) 

• No. 5 Belle Detelle (Top 2) 

• No. 3 Brosnan (Top 4) 

MERIDIANA (1) gets in nicely with the claim and there’s no faulting her recent form. An impressive winner at this grade over the mile last start at Newcastle, she should relish getting out over further now if she finds some early cover from the draw.  

BELLE DETELLE (5) deserves another chance coming off a complete forgive run at Newcastle where the tempo and the early pace were against her. She was up sharply in trip that day and looks better suited for the run sticking to 1800m.  

BROSNAN (3) hasn’t done much wrong in recent runs either. He’s been kept on ice for his latest effort for third here over the track and distance where he was seen charging home late. Nash Rawiller remaining in the saddle is a big bonus.  

REGENERATION (6) has firmed as the early market mover and still sits at a very backable $5 at time of publish, shaping as one of the key plays in Saturday’s Blue Sapphire.

Anthony & Sam Freedman’s progressive son of King’s Legacy is building nicely this prep and looks to be hitting his stride at the right time. He broke through for his maiden win second up at Geelong on November 14 over 1207m, saluting as the odds-on elect by a length after rolling forward and sticking to the task strongly.

This is a step up in grade, but he drops a kilo to 57kg, and the smaller field should play right into his hands as he chases back-to-back wins. Lachlan Neindorf takes the reins, having partnered him two runs back for a close second at Sale when narrowly denied fresh before bouncing back last start.

He’ll need to lift again against sharper opposition, but the profile suggests he’s got another gear to find – and punters are already warming to him as am I.

BRADYEN STAR (2) comes in fit and boasting some solid lead-up form so at the price appeals to me for a cheeky each way play in Melbourne feature race on Saturday.

The Trent Busuttin & Natlie Young trained Twilight Son seven-year-old is a striking guy to look at and he’s paid off well for me when similarly underrated in the past.

While his Caulfield strike-rate, which has just one win from seven starts at the track, leaves plenty to be desired I do like him at this mile and a half distance which he’s proven over.

He saluted at the track and trip with just 53kg to beat the likes of Plymouth and Whisky On The Hill home in the Herbert Power and also has earlier spring form around this year’s historic Spring Cups double champion Half Yours.

A blip on the form guide when second last behind Onesmoothoperator in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, but that was a class affair.

Better last time out when going around at big odds in the Group 3 VRC Queen Elizabeth over 2600m to cross fourth to Whisky On The Hill.

That was on a Heavy (8) with 57.5kg over 2600m – the conditions and extra furlong testing him.

Back to the mile and a half, he needs to improve at WFA but gets better going and a gun gate two draw.

I expect Johnny Allen to settle him up on speed from that gate, and he’s going well enough to outrun his price for a top three performance here.

JOKERS GRIN (2) is the headline act in Saturday’s Winterbottom Stakes at Ascot, firming into $2.60 at time of publish and rightly holding favouritism in a compact but classy field.

Bernie Miller’s flying five‑year‑old is the track specialist punters can trust, chasing his fourth straight victory at Ascot. With Patrick Carbery in the saddle from gate five, Jokers Grin brings an imposing record of 8:6‑2‑0 at the course, including three consecutive wins leading into this Group 1 showdown.

Fans will remember his stunning boilover in the autumn when he defied a wide draw and monster odds to land the $4 million The Quokka. He’s returned this prep in equally sharp form, adding the Group 3 Prince Of Wales Stakes and Colonel Reeves Stakes to his resume in back‑to‑back fashion.

Dropping a kilo under weight‑for‑age conditions, he looks set to peak third‑up and fit, with the home‑track advantage tipping the scales firmly in his favour.

He’s the local star in career‑best form, primed to keep the streak alive and is the only horse to beat the dual defending champion OVERPASS home here at Ascot.

ALALCANCE (4) looks the danger in Saturday’s Zipping Classic, with the powerhouse Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott yard chasing another feature trophy after striking two years ago with Military Mission.

This tough six‑year‑old grey mare by Mastercraftsman is a genuine staying type and gets back to her sweet spot over 2400m. Her record at the trip is rock‑solid (5:2‑3‑0) and she’s already proven herself out to 2600m, so while a few rivals may be tested by the distance, this mare should thrive.

Punters will recall her autumn hot streak in Sydney when she bolted in by big margins in both the Group 3 NE Manion Cup (2400m) and the Group 2 Chairman’s Handicap (2600m) before coming unstuck in the Sydney Cup over two miles. That aside, she’s been ultra‑consistent and has the right credentials to measure up in this company.

She returned with an eye‑catching third in the Matriarch Stakes and now strips fitter second‑up, perfectly drawn in barrier four.

With Craig Williams booked – a proven big‑race rider – she shapes as a serious winning chance for mine.

ACCREDITED (4) is paying just under $10 at time of publish and looks a genuine value play in Saturday’s Festival Stakes, even from the wide draw.

Joe Pride’s tough six‑year‑old chestnut by All Too Hard has been ultra‑consistent all year and is knocking on the door for a deserved Group 3 breakthrough. He hasn’t missed the money since May, with standout runs at Rosehill in the winter when third to Estadio Mestalla in the Listed Winter Stakes and then beaten a whisker by Robusto in the Winter Challenge.

He’s continued that form this prep with back‑to‑back seconds at Randwick and Newcastle, less than a length margin combined. Fresh, he carried a hefty 59.5kg and still fought hard in a photo with regular rival Estadio Mestalla, before finishing a close half‑length off Coal Crusher in the Group 2 The Hunter, charging late from midfield.

Plenty of familiar rivals line up again, but he is well‑weighted, proven to peak at this stage of a campaign, and looks ready to turn the tables. While he’s still chasing that elusive breakthrough at 1500m, he’s fit, firing, and close to his top.

• Top 2 – No. 2 Jokers Grin
• Top 3 – No. 1 Overpass
• Top 4 – No. 4 Rey Magnerio

JOKERS GRIN (5) is my Winterbottom Stakes Best Bet (see above) so I’ve got him in the Top 2 in my SRM selections for the Perth sprint feature.

OVERPASS (2) has gone down just once at the Ascot track in five starts – which was to Jokers Grin in this year’s The Quokka – but Bjorn Baker’s Sydney raider does love it over on the west coast. He not only won two earlier editions of The Quokka but is also the dual defending Winterbottom champ chasing an historic hat-trick. Barrier 2 and Josh Parr in the saddle sets him up nicely and he’s right in the mix again second-up with his runs spaced. A star sprinter who races best fresh, this is his first assignment since a brave $20 million The Everest fourth behind Hong Kong hero Ka Ying Rising, and he’ll be in the top three for sure.

REY MAGNERIO (6) comes into Saturday’s feature with a big boost thanks to the booking of Perth’s own “Wizard of the West” Willie Pike, and punters are already circling. The six‑year‑old son of Magnus has a sharp 1200m strike‑rate and showed his class fresh in Melbourne when taking out the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint. He backed that up with a tough third at Flemington last start over 1000m, where he was forced to give weight away but stuck on gamely. Back to the six furlongs here, he looks ideally placed at equal weights and Pike’s presence in the saddle only adds confidence. With the home‑track advantage and the right set‑up, he shapes as a genuine danger and a live chance for exotics.