Saturday’s Best Bets: Ladbrokes Form Analysts

ONE DAY AT A TIME (7) resumes here after following a top effort in the Listed Maribyrnong Plate.

The Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained filly looked super in her jump outs prior to her debut and took that form to the Flemington straight where she found the line strongly despite being held up to finish a half-length third.

A recent Gold Coast trial where she was well held by the jockey will have her primed for a first-up assault.

Bad luck looks like her biggest obstacle here as she looks ahead to the Magic Millions 2YO Classic.

MISS JOELENE (3) produced a flashing light run last start in the Mooloolaba Cup that suggested ‘back me’ next start.

The Kelly Schweida-trained mare settled a long way back from the wide gate before rocketing home despite having a chequered path to finish a neck fourth to Walsh Bay.

She’s a quality mare who won the Listed Tattersall’s Crown at this track just three starts ago.

Once again, she draws an outside barrier, but Cejay Graham would have settled back anyway, and there does look to be enough speed in the race to allow her to rip home.

STATUARIO (7) is on the quick back-up after finishing third in the Ballarat Cup last Saturday.

The Emma-Lee & David Browne-trained grey gelding was a touch underdone after a soft Cranbourne Cup run two starts ago but still ran super and was the best of the on-pacers.

That will have topped him off nicely and he shouldn’t have any problems with the Pakenham Cup distance given he finished second in the Group 1 South Australian Derby over it and won is a previous winner over 2400m at Caulfield.

The wide draw forces Luke Nolen’s hand, and he’ll settle back which may prove to be a better way to ride this horse.

PRIVATE EYE (3) looks awfully hard to beat in this year’s Ladbrokes Supernova.

The Joe Pride-trained gelding gets in extremely well under the set weight conditions of the race.

He was last seen finishing 5.19 lengths fifth to Jimmysstar in the Russell Balding Stakes which is the premium form for this race.

The Sydneysider loves a trip to Victoria and has won both his previous races when coming south, including two starts ago over this distance in the Group 3 Moonga Stakes.

Craig Williams will give him the run of the race, and he looks very hard to beat.

Champion trainer Tony Gollan recently said that BOOMTOWN BOSS (1) was his Ladbrokes Gateway horse and I think he’ll be celebrating a Stradbroke Handicap start following this year’s edition.

The four-year-old gelding was backed if unbeatable when resuming over 1200m here two starts ago and so it turned out with him putting his rivals to the sword for a 1.36 length win.

He was stiff not to win the Listed Recognition Stakes last start when held up in the straight before savaging the line to miss by a whisker.

He’s at peak fitness and will take a power of stopping if he gets clear air.

GRINGOTTS (1) is looking to avenge his failure in last year’s The Ingham.

Just like last year, the Ciaron Maher-trained gelding enters the Group 2 feature having won The Big Dance and The Gong at his previous two starts.

The big difference to 2024 when he had come to the end of his campaign is that he will line up with fresher legs.

While the large impost and outside barrier are legitimate concerns, he’s consistently overcome these obstacles in the past and is clearly the class horse in the race.

COSMIC CRUSADER (10) has finally delivered on his promise and is looking for his third win in a row.

After failing to gain a start in the Railway Stakes, the Michael Grantham-trained gelding took out his disappointment on an unsuspecting Carbine Club Of WA Stakes field where he proved too strong over this distance to win by 2.59 lengths.

He was outstanding last start in the Group 1 Northerly Stakes when letting down like a demon to defy the late charge of Watch Me Rock to claim a narrow win.

The drop back to 1400m is interesting, but he’s a classy galloper, and we know he’ll be strong late, unlike some of his rivals that come through the Winterbottom Stakes.

• Top 2 – No. 1 Storyville (6)        
• Top 2 – No. 2 Machine Gun Gracie (4)        
• Top 4 – No. 4 Luvnwar (9)  

I’m loving this Same Race Multi opportunity at Ascot and I’m surprised at the price on offer. Could it be too good to be true?

STORYVILLE (6) drops significantly in class from the Railway Stakes to a mares’ only race and won the RJ Peters Stakes just two starts ago. She beat subsequent Northerly Stakes winner Cosmic Crusader. That’s awesome form for this.

MACHINE GUN GRACIE (4) won the WA Oaks and Derby earlier this year and returns here. She looked good in a recent trial win. Class.

I believe they will be fighting out the race, so I’ll take them to both finish Top 2.

LUVNWAR (9) has been racing in great form and wasn’t far off Storyville in the RJ Peters Stakes. She has Top 4 written all over her.

BIANCELLI (8) is having her second run back from a spell and is primed to strike.

She kicked off her career with two impressive victories, then returned at Cranbourne three weeks ago where she tasted her first defeat, but still only finishing just over a head behind the winner.

With natural improvement to come, she’s my best bet of the day.

I’m prepared to give BOJANGLES (5) one more opportunity when he lines up in the final race on The Ingham Day at appealing odds ($11 at time of writing).

He hasn’t managed a win in five starts this prep, but he’s usually not far off the mark and has placed in some credible races along the way.

He’ll be rock-hard fit for this run, draws well in gate 5 to get every chance and carries genuine each way appeal.

STATUARIO (14) strikes a suitable race in Saturday’s Ladbrokes Pakenham Cup.

He was well beaten when dropping back to the mile in the Ladbrokes Cranbourne Cup two starts ago, but returning to 2000m last weekend saw him finish strongly to grab a minor placing.

Now stepping out to 2400m at peak fitness, there’s plenty in his favour.

PRIVATE EYE (5) holds a clear class advantage over most of his opposition in the Ladbrokes Supernova.

The Group 1 winner has consistently produced strong performances throughout his spring campaign and arguably excels most at the 1400m trip.

With a smooth run in transit, he looks ideally placed once more.

BOOMTOWN BOSS (5) can secure a ballot-free position in next year’s Stradbroke Handicap by taking out the Ladbrokes Gateway.

He resumed with an impressive win in BM85 grade and was narrowly beaten in the Recognition Stakes last start.

He heads into this run nice and fit and has come up with an ideal draw under Ryan Maloney.

After scoring at Group 1 level during his autumn campaign, GRINGOTTS (22) has kept the momentum going this season, backing up to win both The Big Dance and The Gong as he did in 2024.

He does face the challenge of topweight and a wide gate, but he’s certainly capable of handling it.

OVERPASS (8) is fit and well placed in The Gold Rush.

Having turned in a typically tough on-pace performance before only just being run down late in The Everest, he was similarly strong in the Winterbottom a fortnight ago to finish second.

In peak order this week, he can go straight to the lead again and make all of his own luck.

• To Win – No. 16 Balance The Books 
• Top 4 – No. 2 Caspernova 
• Top 4 – No. 8 Town Crier

BALANCE THE BOOKS (5) puts an unbeaten record on the line and looks well placed to win again.

She continues to jump as the bar is raised and gets into this contest well under the conditions, and in barrier 6.

I’m going to select her as my winner and pump up my odds with CASPERNOVA (9) and TOWN CRIER (8) each running into the Top 4.

Caspernova recorded consecutive victories in BM70 and Class 1 grade at Eagle Farm two and three starts back and is hard fit, while Town Crier brings similarly smart metro form lines into the race.

ROTAGILLA (8) looks the one to beat in Race 6 at Randwick on The Ingham Day and punters will have no trouble finding him.

The Waller-trained All Too Hard four‑year‑old is absolutely airborne this prep, building a tidy record and arriving off a string of ultra‑consistent runs.

He’s won two of his past three, including a strong victory over Meridiana at Rosehill on November 29, carrying a hefty 59kg to score by three‑quarters of a length in a BM78 that’s already stacking up nicely.

He drops to 56.5kg here with Tim Clark sticking — a big tick — and draws ideally to land midfield with options.

He handles any track, continues to improve, and while this is a step up in grade, the way he powered through the line last start with the big weight suggests he’s more than ready for it.

A solid tempo only enhances his chances at his preferred trip.

I’m confident he puts them away.

LAUREL HILL (1) sits around the $23 mark for Race 4 in Sydney at time of publish, and that’s a very tempting Each‑Way play for a mare absolutely humming along this prep.

With several of the more fancied runners stuck out in the carpark, the six‑year‑old Smart Missile mare gets all the favours from barrier one.

She’s rock‑solid at 1200m (17:3‑4‑5) and the expected Soft track is a big positive — she eats that ground up.

She’s chasing a hat‑trick after two strong wins in easier grade, and she’s certainly not out of her depth here.

Two starts back she dug in late to beat She Swings at Newcastle over 1400m, then last time out she stormed home from near the tail with 55.5kg to score by more than a length over 1250m at Kensington on December 5.

The quick back‑up suits, she drops sharply to just 53kg, and Dylan Gibbons — who steered her to that Newcastle win — jumps back aboard.

Add the winkers and she should be laser‑focused late.

She’s travelling too well for me to ignore and is more than capable of landing a blow at big odds.

BLACK RUN (7) is fit and firing deserving of a shot at Black-Type glory now in the 2025 Ladbrokes Pakenham Cup.

From the Archibald yard, this flying Nathaniel five-year-old is out to extend his picket fence having won three times on the trot heading into his acid test on Saturday.

Well-travelled, he won at Rosehill on November 1 carrying 57kg to victory in a BM78 before showing off his growing staying credentials with back-to-back 2400m wins at Caulfield.

He’s progressing well through the grades and has been carting plenty of weight to some eye-catching victories, so the fact he comes back from 58kg at his latest to just to just 54kg on the weekend is a huge tick.

In form apprentice Ryan Houston is going as well as his mount having been aboard for both Caulfield wins and the good gate seven draw only adds to his appeal.

Maturing, full of confidence and with a knack of finding the right spot in the run I see no reason to get off him yet.

No doubting the deserving favourite PRIVATE EYE (5) is the class horse with genuine winning claims in this year’s Ladbrokes Supernova, but for value I’m going against Shepp and Timmes and am going out on a limb suggesting TAKEN (2) is not out of the mix.

Paying $13 at time of publish, the ultra-consistent Ardrossan four-year-old from the Price/Kent Jnr stable is riding a five-straight winning streak and ticks plenty of boxes to keep the wins coming up in grade.

The 1400m is right within his wheelhouse (3:2-0-1) and he’s proven here at Pakenham (3:1-2-0) which is a big tick for mine.

Undefeated on Slow going, this progressive star in the making gets conditions to suit and should receive all the favours from the low draw.

Jamie Mott comes aboard in yet another jockey change taking over for Ethan Brown who rode him for that devastatingly close Caulfield win fresh off a five-month break in a BM84 over the 1400m in mid-November.

Carted 58kg to victory that day and comes back a half-kilo on the weekend with natural improvement pending after brushing off the cobwebs.

Made up ground after settling midfield first-up and can do so again in his acid test here at good odds.

READY TO SCHIPP (1) isn’t favourite to win Brisbane’s The Gateway but arguably should be in my opinion.

Toby Edmonds’ nicely bred Better Than Ready mare comes into this Stradbroke ballot-offering event in outstanding form and I’m more than happy to stick with her to make it four straight in Queensland this prep.

She’s been enormous all campaign including her huge 3.28 length win at the Sunny Coast back in late October carrying 58.5kg to victory in a BM65 against the three and four-year-olds.

Backed that up against her own kind at Doomben in mid-November over 1350m to dominate by a big margin for the punters before making it back-to-back wins at the track on December 6 with another impressive victory this time over Kodiak off an eye-catching on speed run.

In a rich vein of form, full of confidence and hitting her peak on the short turnaround.

While her only Eagle Farm performance to date had her a distant sixth to Philia in the Listed Princess Stakes in the autumn at 30/1, I don’t think the track will be an issue considering how much better she’s going.

Genuine 1400m specialist with three wins from four starts at the distance, comes into the rails draw for her last start hoop Kyle Wilson-Taylor, versatile on all going and I think she’ll lead from barrier to box.

SABAJ (21) might be facing a tricky draw in The Ingham, but I’m taking note of this progressive four‑year‑old who continues to rise through the ranks at the right time.

The Manhattan Rain gelding has been building momentum all spring, and fourth‑up he looks primed to peak.

After resuming with a sixth in the Silver Eagle, he found confidence on Champions Stakes Day at Flemington, carrying a hefty 59.5kg to a dominant two‑length win over the mile.

He franked that form with a tough Cranbourne Cup victory against a strong line‑up, relishing the drop to 54kg.

This weekend he sheds another kilo to just 53kg, with Beau Mertens sticking in the saddle, and that’s a big tick.

The wide gate is a challenge, but with favourite GRINGOTTS also drawn awkwardly, SABAJ has the upside and closing power to overcome the barrier and be charging late into the finish.

I’m with Timms when it comes to this year’s The Gold Rush winner and am tipping market mover OVERPASS (8) who the punters are rallying behind after the barrier draw.

Bjorn Baker’s seasoned seven‑year‑old is a proven Ascot specialist (6:4‑1‑0) and shapes as the horse to beat, aiming to rebound after his brave runner‑up effort when chasing a Winterbottom Stakes three‑peat just a fortnight ago.

Earlier in the spring he was only 1.5 lengths off Hong Kong hero Ka Ying Rising in Sydney’s The Everest, underlining his class on the world stage, and his fresh run in Perth saw him edged out in a photo by Libertad over 1200m.

With Josh Parr sticking in the saddle, the partnership looks primed to go one better. Parr rolled him forward last start, and the gelding tried to control proceedings from the front, just lacking that final bit of fitness late.

The rise to 1400m is a slight query given he’s yet to place at the trip, but his consistency, toughness, and track record suggest he’s ready to peak.

I expect him to bounce to the lead again and prove very hard to catch and am tipping him to go all the way.

• To Win – No. 1 Overpass
• Top 2 – No. 10 Cosmic Crusader
• Top 4 – No. 9 Rey Magnerio

OVERPASS (8) is my The Gold Rush best bet so no surprising I’m locking him in for first in my SRM selections for the big one in Perth on Saturday.

COSMIC CRUSADER (9) is the current race favourite by a narrow margin and chasing the hat-trick on the quick back-up after impressing over further to take out the Northerly. There’s plenty to like about Michael Grantham’s in-form Maurice gelding and early money is also rolling in for the ultra-consistent five-year-old. Another standout Ascot specialist (12:5‑1‑3), he broke through for his maiden Group 1 last weekend, digging in to deny Watch Me Rock in a thrilling finish over the 1800m. He now comes back to 1400m with Clint Johnston‑Porter sticking aboard the $1.23 million earner from North Dandalup. After drawing gate nine, he’s tightened in the markets to add to his impressive 1400m record (5:3‑0‑2) and he could steal the show again. Keeping safe.

REY MAGNERIO (5) is the Victorian visitor in the mix who Willie sticks aboard. The Magnus six-year-old had the ‘Wizard of the West’ aboard when third only a half-length beaten in the Winterbottom trifecta and I like that he’s in the saddle again. While Robbie Griffiths’ galloper is untested at 1400m, I think he’ll relish the step up in trip and he’s drawn to get the run of the race.