The Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap is Queensland’s greatest race and this Saturday’s running of the time honoured feature at Eagle Farm is set to be another mouth-watering edition with numerous legitimate winning chances.
Leading local hope Antino was dealt a massive blow at the barrier draw when coming up with barrier 20. While starting from the Ascot Woolworths car park is far from ideal, Tony Gollan and his connections can take solace in the fact that the Stradbroke Handicap winner has jumped from double digit barriers in 10 of the past 17 runnings of the race including Alligator Blood who exited barrier 17 in the field of 18 to claim the 2022 race.
Bella Nipotina will look to become the first horse since Campaign King in 1988 to win the Ladbrokes Doomben 10,000/Stradbroke Handicap double.
In 2018 Santa Ana Lane became the first horse to do The Goodwood/Stradbroke Handicap Group 1 double, a feat Benedetta is trying to emulate this year.
Vilana will line up in his third consecutive Stradbroke Handicap and has been heavily backed early into favouritism after impressively winning the Moreton Cup last Saturday. He would become the first horse to win the Moreton Cup and go on to win the Stradbroke Handicap.
We have analysed every horse taking part in the $3 million 2024 Stradbroke Handicap and provided our findings below. (Prices current at time of publish)
1. Bella Nipotina (21)
Price: $11.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained mare has been a marvel for the stable, competing in 21 Group 1 races throughout her career.
She has won two of those topflight features with the most recent coming just two starts ago in the Doomben 10,000 where she charged home to defeat I Wish I Win in a photo finish.
The pair continued their rivalry last start in the Group 1 Kingsford-Smith Cup, but this time it was Peter Moody’s champion that got the prize with the daughter of Pride Of Dubai finishing a neck second.
That is the A-Grade form for this race, but it isn’t all roses for the popular sprinter.
An outside gate isn’t ideal, but it is manageable. The real kicker is the fact she will carry the top weight of 56kg as a mare under handicap conditions, a weight that hasn’t been carried to victory since Show A Heart in 2002.
Despite these negatives, this warrioress will give an almighty effort and I cannot discount her chances.
2. Magic Time (9)
Price: $12.00
The Grahame Begg-trained dual Group 1 winner can be forgiven for dropping out to finish eighth in the Kingsford-Smith Cup last start.
Rounding the bend, she was bumped by I Wish I Win and was later found to have been galloped on which can stop a horse in its tracks.
Six weeks prior to that run she powered through the heavy conditions at Randwick to win the Group 1 All Aged Stakes by just under a length.
That was over the Stradbroke Handicap distance of 1400m and it’s clearly her pet trip given she’s won three of fives starts over it including the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes during the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival.
Mick Dee has built a great relationship with the four-year-old mare and will give her every chance.
3. Antino (20)
Price: $7.50
He is the sole hope for the locals and second favourite in this year’s Stradbroke Handicap.
While the market reacted negatively to him drawing the car park, Queensland’s leading trainer Tony Gollan was less perturbed by barrier 20, stating that his galloper needs room to move. He will definitely get that.
The five-year-old gelding has built an amazing career thus far, winning 10 of his 16 races.
While his Spring Carnival was frustrating at times, it should not be forgotten that he won the Group 3 Sandown Stakes and was runner-up by the narrowest of margins in the Group 2 Crystal Mile and Group 1 Toorak Handicap.
The son of Redwood had a decent break after his Spring Carnival tilt and recently returned in impressive fashion. After missing the start in the Group 2 Victory Stakes, he reeled off some exceptional closing splits to win by a length.
That continued his love affair with Eagle Farm where he has won five of seven starts including two races over this distance.
He can bounce back third-up with a massive drop in weight after racing wide throughout in the Kingsford Smith Cup last start.
Gollan has yet to win a Stradbroke Handicap, and he craves it, so he’ll have this guy cherry ripe. Therefore, even with a wide gate to overcome, he must be considered one of the leading chances.
4. Benedetta (6)
Price: $11.00
The Jason Warren-trained mare arrives in Queensland in supreme form.
Last start the daughter of Hellbent won her maiden Group 1 title when she was given a perfect ride by Jamie Kah to storm home to win the Group 1 Goodwood by a head.
This preparation has seen the four-year-old go to a new level with fourth place finishes in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap before winning the Group 3 RN Irwin Stakes.
Given her Goodwood win was a month ago, Warren has given her a trial since then to keep her ticking over and it was a pleasing piece of work.
While she has won multiple races over 1300m, she is yet to race over 1400m which is a slight query given the way Stradbroke Handicaps are traditionally run at a hot speed.
However, she’s drawn to perfection in barrier 4 which will give her every chance to run a strong race and she’s on the up, so she looks likely to fight out the finish.
5. Cepheus (15)
Price: $101.00
The seven-year-old gelding won’t know himself with just 54kg on his back after regularly carrying 60kg and more over the past year.
However, he has been well beaten in each of his three previous Group 1 races and this looks a touch rich for the Matt Dunn-trained galloper at this stage of his career.
6. Vilana (14)
Price: $4.40
The James Cummings-trained gelding is taking part in his third consecutive Stradbroke Handicap, and this looks his best chance yet.
He could not have been more impressive last start when letting down powerfully in the Group 2 Moreton Cup to decimate his rivals by 3.8 lengths.
Such was the comprehensive nature of the victory; winning jockey James McDonald was ruing the fact he cannot get his weight down to 53kg to ride the Godolphin galloper in the Group 1 feature.
There seems to be a real sense of timing about the five-year-old given that he finally delivered on his promise last start and is now at peak fitness.
It must be noted that the one and only time he was on a seven-day back-up, he weakened badly to finish last in the Group 2 Ingham. However, I’m prepared to suggest that was because he found 1600m beyond him and not the short turnaround between runs.
The Blue Army look poised to add another title to those they won with Trekking in 2019 and Impending in 2017.
7. Here To Shock (1)
Price: $20.00
The Hayes Boys have timed their gelding’s run into this year’s Stradbroke Handicap to perfection.
Last start the son of Shocking finished strongly to get the better of Freedom Rally to win the Group 3 BRC Sprint by a nose.
The six-year-old’s prior form was very good and included a win in the Group 3 Victoria Handicap where he stormed home, defeating Seonee by half a length. That horse then won the Group 2 Queen Of The South Stakes to frank the form.
He’ll need to go to another level again, but this is his pet distance and he gets all the favours from the inside barrier.
Each way all day.
8. Nugget (10)
Price: $19.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained gelding was luckless last start in the Scone Cup so it’s best to put a line through that run.
Two starts back he was held up in the Group 1 Doncaster Mile but still fought gamely to finish just under a length fourth.
He hasn’t won for 76 weeks which is a concern as is the drop to a distance he is yet to win over.
However, the great race caller Alan Thomas always said you needed to be able to run a strong mile to win a Stradbroke Handicap and that certainly sums this guy up.
He’s not for me, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him storming home to place.
9. The Inevitable (8)
Price: $18.00
The Tasmanian galloper caught the eye finding the line strongly from the back of the pack in the BRC Sprint last start to finish 1.9 lengths seventh.
He hasn’t won for 67 weeks but he’s no stranger to performing on the biggest stage having famously finished a close third in the 2023 All-Star Mile.
The rising nine-year-old boasts a terrific record over this distance but he will get back and will more than likely have too much ground to make up in the run home.
10. Amendable (16)
Price: $10.00
The Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr-trained son of Lonhro has been highly touted throughout his career and finally delivered on that hype two starts back in the All Aged Stakes.
He gave a tremendous sight, leading the 1400m contest until the closing stages when picked off by Magic Time to finish a neck second.
The four-year-old gelding took the confidence gained from that super effort to the Listed Luskin Star at Scone last start and was unlucky not to win given he didn’t have the clearest of paths, finishing a nose second.
He’ll appreciate the massive drop in weight and just needs a touch of luck from the wide gate to be fighting out the finish.
11. Prince Of Boom (11)
Price: $46.00
The Robert Heathcote-trained five-year-old gelding produced his best run last start since winning the WJ Healy Stakes here last Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival.
He settled handy in the BRC Sprint before drawing level with the leader in the straight and fighting on bravely to finish 1.1 lengths third.
There’s a question mark over his ability to run a strong 1400m here and it would require him being able to dictate terms in front. I just can’t see that happening.
12. Osipenko (11)
Price: $31.00
The Chris Waller-trained son of Pierro was probably in the wrong part of the track last start in the Kingsford Smith Cup, but regardless he didn’t raise a yelp and finished second last.
He’ll strip fitter second-up, but his last win came over 2000m in the Group 3 Frank Packer Plate over a year ago so I just can’t seen him figuring against this level of opposition.
13. Mighty Ulysses (18)
Price: $51.00
The import has had three starts for Annabel Neasham since arriving in Australia.
His win in the Listed Brisbane Mile Quality Handicap two starts back was strong but it didn’t scream Stradbroke Handicap contender.
14. Semana (22)
Price: $18.00
The Ciaron Maher-trained mare was last seen running on strongly to finish third by 1.4 lengths in the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes during the Sydney Autumn Racing Carnival.
She raced in terrific form last preparation, winning the Magic Millions Cup and Group 3 Triscay Stakes before going within a nose of taking out the Group 1 Coolmore Classic.
The daughter of Winning Rupert races well fresh and loves this distance having won four of six races over it.
Unfortunately, she has drawn the second outside barrier which makes her task incredibly difficult. I wouldn’t count her out but she will need a lot of luck.
15. Dream Hour (3)
Price: $151.00
The rank outsider of the field won his way into the Stradbroke Handicap field by winning The Gateway in December.
Since then, he has been beaten in two Class 5 Handicaps so it’s hard to see him troubling the scorers.
16. Steparty (4)
Price: $21.00
The three-year-old colt ran well to finish eighth by 3.5 lengths last start in the Group 3 Fred Best Classic considering he drew the extreme outside gate and raced three-wide near the tail.
He’ll strip fitter and has won over this distance when third-up before.
However, that was early in his career when the lightly raced son of Artie Schiller won his first five races.
There is no doubting his ability, but I feel this race has come too early for him. Maybe next year.
17. Stefi Magnetica (19)
Price: $11.00
The Bjorn Baker-trained three-year-old filly resumed in brilliant fashion in the Doomben 10,000 two starts ago.
She settled last and flew home weaving through the field, but her run came to a halt when she came up the inferior going on the inside and finished fifth by 1.9 lengths.
The daughter of All Too Hard again was forced to race in the slower part of the track last start in the Fred Best when finishing third by 1.5 lengths.
Getting caught in the wrong part of the track shouldn’t be a problem in the Stradbroke Handicap given she’s drawn wide.
With just 50kg and the right run, she will take some holding out and looks like a great chance to join her mum, Mid Summer Music, as a winner of Queensland’s favourite race.
18. Roll On High (13)
Price: $14.00
The Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman-trained three-year-old filly ran on strongly to win the Fred Best Classic last start and earn a golden ticket into the Stradbroke Handicap.
Ladbrokes own Moody has always had a high opinion of the daughter of Shamus Award and has targeted this race since she won the Listed Desirable Stakes in November.
She possesses a devastating turn of foot so if she is in striking distance entering the straight, she could take some stopping with just 50kg on her back.
19e. Freedom Rally (5)
Price: $12.00
Unfortunately for Tony Gollan a deal couldn’t be done with the connections of Dream Hour to get his gelding into the final field and now he has to wait to see if there will be a scratching.
The son of Rubick looks primed for a peak performance fourth-up after three very good runs this time in work.
He recorded the quickest final 400m when finishing a close third in the Listed ATC Cup first-up before costing himself victory second-up when blowing the start badly before charging home to finish a nose second in the BRC Sprint.
Last start he gave a great account of himself in the Kingsford Smith Cup when finishing 2.6 lengths fourth.
The drop from 59kg to 51.5kg and the nice barrier would make him hard to beat if he were to gain a start.
20e. Yellow Brick (23)
Price: $23.00
The Toowoomba galloper returned to his winning ways last Saturday when claiming the Listed Spear Chief Handicap.
Unfortunately, the Tony and Maddy Sears-trained four-year-old gelding will start from the extreme outside gate if there’s two scratchings and he makes the field.
21e. Strait Acer (17)
Price: $126.00
The Edward Cummings-trained galloper was well held in the BRC Sprint and his last win came in a Benchmark 88 Handicap almost a year ago.
Seems unlikely.
22e. Aureus Angel (2)
Price: $151.00
The Chris Munce-trained six-year-old won the Listed Bright Shadow when resuming.
She’s a quality mare but this is too rich for her.
23e. Cifrado (12)
Price: $101.00
Winner of the Group 3 Vo Rogue in December and ran well to finish second in the Group 3 Gold Guineas two starts back but looks outclassed here against older horses.
The Judgement
It would be an incredible moment in Queensland racing if Tony Gollan was to finally win a Stradbroke Handicap and I think Antino is the horse to deliver it for him.
While the wide barrier is not ideal, we have seen over the years that barriers are not the be all and end all in the Stradbroke Handicap and an outside gate will allow him to get into his stride. If Vlad Duric can find a three-wide position with a friend to follow or better, then that will all he needs to get in the finish. Given how the track has been playing, drawing wide may not actually be a negative.
He brought his excellent Melbourne Spring Carnival form to this preparation with his first-up win in the Victory Stakes being pure class.
Things didn’t go to plan in the Kingsford Smith Cup last start when he got too far back but he still managed to record some of the quickest closing sectionals of the race.
I love that he’s proven over 1600m as the winner will need to be able to cop the heat early and be strong late.
The massive weight drop is in his favour and he loves Eagle Farm.
Finally, he’s a Queenslander so it just feels right to cheer for the local!
Selections:
1st – Antino (3)
2nd – Stefi Magnetica (17)
3rd – Vilana (6)
4th – Semana (14)